Framing lumber prices are almost back to pre-covid levels:
Lumber Prices Fall Back to Around Their Pre-Covid Levels - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-prices-fall-back-to-around-their-pre-covid-levels-11664239652?mod=djemalertNEWS)
Dont remember pre-plandemic plywood prices being what i just paid for 2 sheets of 3/4" construction grade, $110 before tax. They were around $32 a sheet before the world went crazy.
I dont understand the price hike, except for fuel price increase, but the sawmill that provides a good bit of the lumber products for the store, is 2 miles down the road.
I would predict that common softwood lumber will [is] drop dead and many small band mill owners who has discovered how much work it is will sell their machines thus hurting the sales of new ones.
Since people continued to buy wood at insane prices like it was going out of style, I have a hard time believing that the big box stores are going to drop their prices very much. Guarantee they will never be back to pre-pandemic pricing ever.
Funny how the consumers drive everything without even realizing it.
I bought 4 different species (packs) of hardwood lumber last week, one dropped, one stayed the same, and two were higher.
I bought a pack of 8/4 soft maple today, it went up since last time I bought it, fairly recently.
I'm getting some 8/4 walnut tomorrow, same price as last month, nearly $9 per bdft.
I don't do much softwood, but the hardwood and exotics I have to buy are still painfully high.
I have my second truck from Canada coming in next week because I can't get decent exotics at wholesale prices in the States. It's less expensive for me to bring it from Canada to Alabama, than from North Carolina to Alabama. Go figure.
I bet most of the new sawmill owners that bought during the low interest, easy money days will be selling soon. It's becoming more obvious that there are a lot of new mill owners that don't know what they're doing and think there's easy $ to be made running a sawmill operation. Just look at the FB pages and FB Marketplace....I'm thankful to be able to come here to the Forum for 'real deal' information and to interact with professionals instead of posers.
Speaking of posers - I decided to sell my truck recently and listed it on FB Marketplace. 90% of the inquiries were from those looking to buy it solely for their image. It's a big black diesel RAM 3/4 ton, like in the popular show Yellowstone. Most of these keyboard cowboys did not have the $ to afford it (said they could get the loan, but ultimately couldn't) and none had a construction business, or anything to pull / haul that would necessitate having a 3/4 ton diesel truck. After dealing with these time wasting posers for a couple weeks, I relented and just traded it in to the dealer.
Log prices haven't gone down.
I haven't be able to get hemlock logs
Just found some 300 to 490 depending on size and no shake.
I'm still very busy.
You won't see retail prices drop that much.
I doubt that any of the recent rush in sawmill purchases produced enough commodity framing material to build a single home. Between rules prohibiting the use of ungraded lumber to the rest of what is needed to run a sawmill business. Somewhere there is someone who did buy a mill and will build their own place, but the majority bought mills for reasons other than to produce commodity framing lumber. Think about it - spend $50K on a mill to avoid paying $8 for a stack of 2x4's to build the shed in your back yard that houses the riding mower?
New mills on fire sale will be a result of inflation, fuel, etc eating up the disposable income budget and the time the wifes car broke down with the kids and dogs in it at the worst possible spot. Time for the toy to go.
I feel kind of guilty for waiting like a vulture for my coming mill upgrade😂
Quote from: barbender on September 28, 2022, 03:37:12 PM
I feel kind of guilty for waiting like a vulture for my coming mill upgrade😂
Don't be, I'm doing the same. I don't want to sell my stationary mill but an LT40SH or LT50 would compliment it nicely. Now if I can just keep the money I've set aside from burning a hole in my pocket, I'll have my pick. My brother finds it amusing to send me deals on guns (that aren't cheap) as he knows I have a weakness, so he's mt biggest enabler when it comes to non-focused expenses. .338 RUM rounds are pricey.
Sad to say but if the fed slows down the economy like they are trying to there are folks who may have been okay financially that will get in over their head and a sawmill is good thing to sell if someone needs the bucks. I know a lot of contractors that have been working all the hours they wanted since things opened up after the early Covid shutdowns. They earn a lot of bucks but they also spend a lot of bucks in a hurry. if there is a construction slowdown next year they will burn up the savings this winter and be looking for cash by the spring.
The lean times are coming: It's always been a boom and bust industry and we know what has to come next.
That said I'm not expecting a price crash across a lot of sectors so much as a sideways slide... prices will stay around the new normal. But input costs will keep going up and chew into the margins and tough is tough no matter how you get there. I read an article the other day that suggested it might take 7 years to fill the housing oversupply in China, and that's bad news for the world economy, and a lot of construction materials suppliers who will be looking to dump product into the international market - commodity lumber might take a big dive.
A 9.3x 62 makes more sense than a 338 RUM IMHO, all the thump that's needed without burning out barrels.
Quote from: barbender on September 28, 2022, 03:37:12 PM
I feel kind of guilty for waiting like a vulture for my coming mill upgrade😂
Some shadows passed over me today when I was outside, I thought of you. :D
I suspect that orders for mills will or are being cancelled now. Or a little selfish piece of me is hoping so. I'm just waiting on mine with the cash in the bank. Depending upon interest rates at the time I'll decide whether to use my money or OPM (other people's money).
Quote from: peakbagger on September 28, 2022, 05:36:31 PM
Sad to say but if the fed slows down the economy like they are trying to there are folks who may have been okay financially that will get in over their head . . . . .
If fixing the economy places them in over their head, they were never okay financially, they just thought they were.
Quote from: SawyerTed on September 28, 2022, 08:28:32 PM
I suspect that orders for mills will or are being cancelled now. Or a little selfish piece of me is hoping so.
If I were a Wood-Mizer financial exec, the order policy would change to 3% (or $500 whichever is greater) non-refundable upon placing an order. The only exception to a deposit refund would be if buyer's remorse kicked in within 48hrs of placing the order. Such a policy would help cut down on the folks placing orders for 4-6 mills (big ones) at a time.
Is that really a thing? Orders for multiple mills? Knowing what lead times are, that's some serious speculation. The only way that could work is if "resellers" had contracts from buyers. That's some major money (at least to me) $250,000 to $500,000 on speculation to make 10-15 percent? That's assuming demand stays up.
I get what you are getting at - Woodmizer isn't discouraging speculation of this sort by their refundable deposit if the order is cancelled.
My gut tells me Woodmizer is counting on some pre-pandemic equilibrium returning. Between waning interest and increased interest rates the sawmilling craze will lose its shine financially.
It's not like they built a new facility to keep up with orders, they were going to build those mills one way or another. The question is how long will folks have to wait and can the dealers get some inventory as a result of the dust settling.
I started shopping for an LT28 after having my stationary mill for only a few months and lead times had already grown significantly. I backburnered the idea for a few months to concentrate more on sawing and learning, upon contacting WM earlier this year lead time had gone way up again and prices too. I worked with the same sales guy a few times and he told me he just had a customer place an order for 6 LT35 and such orders were becoming increasingly common.
I have never had any indication that any of my sawing has ever been related to the price of commercial/store bought lumber.
The majority of the "extra" calls that I have gotten has been from folks wanting to buy lumber, which I do not sell. Those "buying" calls were a direct result of high lumber prices.
It seems they are gonna strangle that easy money. Its gonna hurt a lot of people before its over Im afraid. Im glad I got my LT 35 when I did. Sure I would like to have two pumps to increase speed and a wide head for those bigger logs, but at the end of the day it covers my needs. My grandfather told me when I was a kid " Son I always had everything I ever wanted, I was just real careful what I wanted". Took some years for me to understand those words. Wish I could thank him for that wisdom now. Brian
I mentioned this on another thread, but my thoughts are we are at least 1 year away from any price correction and possibly 2-4 years. There is just way too much money floating around in the economy right now for prices to go down any. I'm guessing a 10% reduction in some pricing in 12 months due to demand, with that only growing if the economy worsens. All that extra money needs to land somewhere first. I don't think a lot of prices will every be back to "normal". There will be a shift in how certain things are valued.
Using WM as an example, even if they have some canceled orders there are still plenty to fill those cancelations. Let's face it, most Americans are not good with budgets and living within their means. People will finance every toy they can until someone tells them they can't, we aren't there yet. Most businesses are still pretty flush with cash and will easily cash flow payments or just pay cash. A softening economy isn't going to change this equation very fast, but a hard drop would. My opinion, some deals may come up, but the true deals are 3-4 years out.
I know we're bouncing back and forth from wholesale/retail & hardwood/softwood prices in some of these comments. On a retail framing and sheathing stand point prices are significantly lower now then they were a year ago. Locally at least framing lumber is 50% lower then a year ago, OSB 75% lower, and plywood 50% lower. 1/2" OSB is $15 sheet, 1/2" CDX is $32. Steel 29ga liner panel has dropped from a high of $3.70/LF down to $2.85/LF.
I went to order a 23 Ford Platinum 350 yesterday and the salesman said Ford hasn't even opened the season yet, but said prices would go up about $10,000 on the truck I was looking to order, to a little over $100K. Right.
So I went by the Chevy dealer, and there was not a single 3500 on the lot and they told me many orders had been canceled by Chevy leaving the customers hung out to dry. Ok, moving on.
Then I went to my Kubota dealer ready to write a check for my mini excavator but it had been delayed. Maybe it will come in later this month. Well, poop.
While I was there, I tried to order a mulcher head for the mini excavator and the manufacturer said they were 6 to 8 months out, and what used to be $24K is now $36K. Well, ain't that a shock? Who didn't know that was coming, so I left.
Basically, I was ready to spend a quarter million bucks yesterday and all I came home with was a headache and a $20 chicken finger combo with cheese bites from Zaby's.
I got a unit of of KD zero defect walnut from one of my wholesalers delivered this morning at a comforting $9 per bdft, wholesale plus a hefty delivery fee and fuel surcharge. I used to get it for $4 a couple, 3 years ago.
Ain't no prices going down that I'm seeing and whatever is about to happen, it's about to get worse.
Yet I have a load of exotic lumber coming from Canada next week at pre pandemic prices and free shipping. From Canada to Alabama. I couldn't even get these species in the US except for criminally high scalping prices. Figure that one out.
The world used to be crazy, now it's just getting stupid. I feel like I'm in a Twilight Zone movie. Hey, is this real?????? or just a bad movie?
I'm ready for it to be over.
Your Momma probably told you there would be days like that.
OTOH, you could try clicking your heels and repeating "There's no place like home" (works best with ruby slippers on your feet I am told.)
Quote from: YellowHammer on September 29, 2022, 09:41:50 AM
While I was there, I tried to order a mulcher head for the mini excavator and the manufacturer said they were 6 to 8 months out, and what used to be $24K is now $36K. Well, ain't that a shock? Who didn't know that was coming, so I left.
There's an ~80hr Prinoth M450E-900 for sale an hour from me for $18,2.
That's a pretty expensive chicken finger combo. $23 paid for my wife and I to go go Golden Corral just a couple of years ago.
Maybe where a lot of the Ford trucks are at? Stock piled and waiting for some parts??
We Discovered 40,000 Unfinished Ford Super Duty Trucks! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUATiCmxzcQ)
I hear you Yellowhammer 😂. What's also happening is company's are not taking orders from dealers even if they want units. One guy I talked to was supposed to get 31 ASV units in for the year and they got 13. My friend told me about a dealer in Texas that got six ASV 135s in. I called and the guy told me they got four in and everyone had canceled because of the wait. He said you couldn't blame them. They were a little concerned. Four 143k machines. They all sold in one day when they came in.
I talked with Carolina Saw & Service just a few minutes ago. They are my closest Woodmizer Dealer. Can I say I continue to receive excellent customer service from these folks.
For an order for an LT 50 placed in Jan. 2022, current delivery is "around" March '23. That's improved from July '23 from the last conversation I had with them in May. It is still 60 weeks.
But I was asked this question, "If an LT 50 comes in AND the customer cancels, are you ready to take delivery?"
My answer was, "Absolutely, put me on the list to take delivery of a mill that meets my order."
That leads me to believe the cancellation of orders is a reality and moving manufacturing dates closer to a typical 3-4 months lead time.
So worst case, I'm still waiting 6 more months. Best case is I get an early Christmas present. :o :D
Quote from: SawyerTed on September 29, 2022, 12:00:52 PM
That leads me to believe the cancellation of orders is a reality and moving manufacturing dates closer to a typical 3-4 months lead time.
So worst case, I'm still waiting 6 more months. Best case is I get an early Christmas present. :o :D
That's where I got my mill from and admittedly an LX55 take a whole lot less time to slap together than an LT50. My order was placed at the beginning of March '21 with an expected delivery of 12-14 weeks, I picked it up 7 weeks later. I wouldn't be surprised if you get it much sooner provided the fed keeps doing what they've long needed to do before now.
YH if you are determined to spend 250K, :D I'll sell you some cypress.
"Yet I have a load of exotic lumber coming from Canada next week at pre pandemic prices and free shipping. From Canada to Alabama. I couldn't even get these species in the US except for criminally high scalping prices. Figure that one out."
I assume much of the exotic lumber originated from South America? Talk about trucking...
I have 5 different places I purchase exotic species, depending on what they have and when they have it. Typically, exotics come in on container ships to the Gulf Coast or Atlantic side, and are shipped to distribution houses from Mobile, Alabama, Tennessee, North and South Carolina, Mississippi and Georgia. At that point they sell at wholesale cost to retailer, such as myself.
So for example, a recent species had been raised $2 per bdft with an additional $2 per bdft for shipping from South Carolina to Alabama, so for me to get it from South Carilona, just a few hours away, it was going to cost me an additional $4 per bdft. That was the lowest markup I could find from any of my US distributers. I wasn't going to do it.
So I ordered the exact same species from Ontario, Canada, and saved the $4 per board foot. Now here is the part that lit me up. The only company on the US that had that particular species called me up and told me they had some coming and it would only be a few months more. Yeah, right, I said I have a second truck with a load coming in next week. He went ballistic, and got mad at me because I had the audacity to get it from out of the country, instead of waiting a "few more months" to get it from them at a much higher price. Then he went on a rant that it should be a "Congressional thing" that should be stopped, (I assume competition from Canada) and while he was ranting, he spilled the beans that he knew where I had gotten that wood and was also mad at them for selling to me and undercutting his price. So I said, do you understand how that sounds???. You sold to them at a lower price than you ever sold to me, low enough for them to resell to me and and still make a profit, and yet you want to charge me an additional $4 per board foot!! And you are mad at ME! Do I have Stupid stamped on my face! Oh, I unloaded, big time.
However, the reality of the situation is not lost on me, how many other things is this happening with?
I keep reading how lumber prices are back to pre pandemic levels but it ain't happening in my part of the world. I'm confused
Some of those outfits feel completely entitled to rob you YH, it would appear🤦♂️
Can someone explain to me the scenario where someone would order six LT 35s? Is that an individual who is planning to either sell his place in line or to purchase and then resell when they come up one at time? I would think either Woodmizer or the fact that there's probably state sales tax involved would end those plans in a hurry.
Somebody help me with this.
It wasn't explained to me in detail but I suspect the low risk of buying now with a refundable deposit made the prospect of reselling at 15% over cost attractive to some. Heck if you bought six and sold 5 of them for a decent profit, the last one you could keep for free. I've been offered $9k for my LX55 which seemed high to me, but I'm not interested in selling even if there was money to be made (at least not that much money anyway). I've seen the same thing happen with vehicles that have been on order forever, the customer finally gets it and some yokel offers them 50% over what they paid, for many it's hard to turn down. The example that stick out in my mind was a guy who ordered a new Bronco, $65K all in, spec'd just how he wanted it and when it rolled off the truck another guy wanted it bad enough to offer him $115K, I'm pretty sure he took the deal.
I just believe there are a lot of sawmills out there that folks purchased for a lot of wrong reasons . Also a lot of poor lumber and slabs are just sitting and going unused. As interest rates rise the economy is going to slow at some rate. If $$ gets tight a lot of used mills will be for sale. I also am of the opinion that a lot of interest in mills was driven by you tube videos at I time when guys had a lot of extra time and $$. It looks really easy on a video to make some lumber and build your dream cabin. The reality is that you need a lot of support equipment and milling is hard work. You also need to be handy mechanically to take care of your mill and keep it running smoothly. If you follow the wood-mizer facebook page you can tell a lot of folks struggle with their mills. On the other side of the coin is a whole lot of people are doing well with milling and building some beautiful buildings and projects. I would never believed so many folks would go into milling. For many years there was only one wood-mizer in my whole county. the rough cut/sawmill/hardwood part of the lumber business is a sub section of the lumber business I do not think it is connected to the commercial building lumber price wise. We serve a different type of customer most of the time. It does not matter what a 2x4 costs at lowes if you need a 8x8x16 foot beam. I don't think retail lumber will fall in price that much but if it does I don't see it has a direct connection to rough cut lumber.
In any case the last few years has truly changed everything I thought I ever knew about business. I call it clown world. The masses will apparently pay anything for some item they want or think they can't get. So I do not think I can predict anything. I just do me in my pre historic way and hope maybe there will be a resurgence of normalcy at some point.
All those live edge 8/4 tables, bar tops and mantles selling for crazy prices got a lot of attention from people who thought they would just tap into that cash by buying a sawmill.
They did the math and figured they could sell 5 or 10 a month at $300 each! After a few months, it will all be profit! Of course their buddy with a tree service will give them logs for free!
My buddies say they will help around the mill.
Who knew I needed a 65 hp tractor or skid steer? You mean daddy's Massey Ferguson 135 won't lift a 26" white oak log?
Where do I get a blade? The one that came on the mill is dull.
Oh no! That freshly cut mantle I charged you $300 for has split and cracked? I don't have any idea why that happened.
There are mushrooms growing out the sides of my lumber stack and there's some kind of stuff growing between the boards that causes them to stick together. I
I've cut a 24" wide live edge slab that's 12/4 thick, it's heavy!
My 3 buddies who said they would help on the mill went fishing together! I don't have any help.
Highly valuable walnut logs!! $$$$$
Sales tax? I have to collect sales tax?
Insurance? Why?
This is dirty and hard work!
I have one customer the ties me to new housing market. He goes into new empty homes and does shelves, mirrors, glass doors, wire stuff and such. Problem is the lady's want WOOD. He has bought much of my old wide boards in most thickness up to 2". I just bought a load of good diameter tulip for no real reason and could saw lots of wide 5/4 however I have no kiln and every board will get ppb unless sprayed. Anyhow no new investments at my age and at some point this shelf market will drop dead. Always happens.
Moodnacreek, I recently found a kiln up my way (he is an hour west of me) that does other folks lumber only now. He has a HUGE kiln and charges a buck a BF due to his energy costs. DOes good work and pretty timely for me, plus, he is a great guy just around my age with a lot to share. He does regular monthly loads that get trucked to his kiln from Long Island. If you have a trucker, you could probably work something out. If you want to run up this way, I can arrange a meeting, or give you his contact info. He just did some 12/4 x 24 by 16' slabs for us and pretty quick too, I thought.
(Disclaimer, I have no financial interest in this.)
My weekly sales on the food side of the business range from 10-15% food stamps right now.
That light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
I found Yellowhammer a F-350 Super Duty. There's 40,000 new Ford trucks in Kentucky.
https://youtu.be/hUATiCmxzcQ (https://youtu.be/hUATiCmxzcQ)
Quote from: richhiway on September 29, 2022, 07:00:17 PM
I just believe there are a lot of sawmills out there that folks purchased for a lot of wrong reasons . Also a lot of poor lumber and slabs are just sitting and going unused. As interest rates rise the economy is going to slow at some rate. If $$ gets tight a lot of used mills will be for sale. I also am of the opinion that a lot of interest in mills was driven by you tube videos at I time when guys had a lot of extra time and $$. It looks really easy on a video to make some lumber and build your dream cabin. The reality is that you need a lot of support equipment and milling is hard work.
War story time... ;D ;D ;D
Guy comes in here a couple months back and he wants me to saw some Queensland Maple for him on shares. Now Qld Maple is one of the worlds better cabinet and joinery species and it's got a limited range most of which is now locked up and protected and I cut every bit of it I can get hold of. But one of the anomalies of the lumber game is that scarcity does not always result in a price increase... you need volume to drive a trend and if volumes are constrained the wholesale guys dont push it, the architects don't spec it, and Suzy Homeowner doesn't know it exists to want it for her new kitchen. But I'll still cut and hold because I have a better clientele than that and I can turn it into bucks easy enough.
Anyway, the guy's got a load of logs and they aren't bad logs, and he wants me to saw them on shares:
Me: "Okayyyy, what are you thinking here old mate?"
Dude: "Well I've got some trees and you come cut them down and put them through your mill and we split the timber"
Me: "How about if you want some of it cut I'll contract saw a couple up at my normal rate and just buy the balance of the logs from you?"
Dude: "What's wrong with just doing it on shares?"
Me: "Not a lot, it's just that I've got 20 years experience and a million dollars tied up in the industry, and you've got a couple of trees. What kind of split you thinking here?"
Despite how it looks in the tube videos it's work, and most people don't like work. There'll be a glut of lightly used mills on the market soon enough
Quote from: YellowHammer on September 29, 2022, 09:41:50 AMBasically, I was ready to spend a quarter million bucks yesterday and all I came home with was a headache and a $20 chicken finger combo with cheese bites from Zaby's.
I'm ready for it to be over.
No offence to Yellow Hammer, but this is exactly what I was saying. There are a lot of people/businesses in the same position as him right now. They have the money to spend but can't find something to spend it on since there's nothing in stock.
Not being political, but the government pumping trillions of dollars into the economy is the main cause. All of those dollars need to land somewhere, and then the price structure needs to correct from there. This will take some time.
I've heard rumors of Ford cutting back on some fleet purchases. Some big construction companies that usually order 50-70 trucks (250's-550's) a year are being told they will only get 15-20 trucks next year. These trucks get used and abused and just get worn out eventually. They aren't the pavement princesses most of the suburbanites think they need to drive. This goes on for a couple years and we have issues. Most of these fleets run pretty much bare bones trucks. You would think they would be more readily available then high trim models due to less chips needed, but they are not being built because there is more profit in the high trim models.
So many of those same companies buying fleets of trucks, are in the "spend it or lose it" situation. They are going to be looking for something to spend it on.
One thing I have learned in my 29 years of owning a business, is that we are basically penalized for saving money. If you spend it and kick the "tax can" down the road then it makes the economy look better. This gives some folks in office something to brag about, even if it is a false reading.
Agree. We run into the same thing with the farm. Either you spend some profit and write it off, or pay 30% tax on it.
Those truck dollars will float around and land somewhere that there is something in stock.
I agree with you Tom. I drive 250 and 350's cause I pull equipment and materials around most days. I could get a 4wd bare bones truck in the 30k range. Now everybody needs a truck like that to pull the side by side to the farm on the weekend and expect the trucks interior to match that of the sedan they drive during the week. Even before the pandemic it was getting hard to buy a work truck. Now its impossible. How did folks ever get along before there seats were heated??
Yeah, it's kind of frustrating, and certainly no offense to me. Me buying high end equipment is what I like to do. I used to not be able to buy a pot to you know what in, so now I want to buy what I want to buy. We save up for it, and now, now bueno.
We save up for routine business purchases, try to plan things out, and then the plan goes in the toilet. For example, the reason I'm wanting a new truck is that we had planned on replacing my older Chevy, 150,000 miles, when it started to become unreliable. So it is now, and I need a new truck, no big deal, I have the money, it's in the business plan, and you'd think, somewhere in this country there would be one. So I started looking at late model used uses and they cost more than than the new ones, the one that sticks out is the used one cost $26,000 more than the used one, at a dealer about 15 miles away. So then I start looking at new ones and they won't be available for 6 months or more. Even if I order one in October, Ford won't even start building them until January, and then it's 3 to 6 months, so realistically, it may be 9 months, before I can get the one I want. So now I'm driving around in an unreliable truck until I can find a solution, and every thousand bucks I have to invest in repairs could have been put into a new one, so is a waste.
It used to be that I could walk into a dealership and buy the the high end models because no one else could afford to wanted them. So I get a better truck quicker. I also got extremely high resell on the high end equipment, much better than barebones stuff.
When I went to the Chevy dealership, they didn't even come out to talk to me, which was unusual. So I asked the manager why and he said they hardly had any salesmen left. They didn't have any stock so can't sell stuff, so the salesman don't make commissions and move on.
Also, I see rolling stock as an excellent investment. Good high end equipment doesn't lose value these days, it stays the same or goes up. So spending money that I can get back is not an issue. Don't forget how much money we made selling all our old equipment this year. If I can buy a high end truck, use it for a year, and resell it for as much or more than I paid for it, that's easy money. But the plan falls apart when I can't get the replacement.
If my truck isn't as comfortable as my tractor or skid steer, I don't want it, and it sure won't be more expensive. The tractor I bought in 2014 cost more than the Ford Platinum truck I'm looking at now. I've worked hard for years, and the reality is that I spend $20 grand a week on logs or lumber, sometimes more, sometimes less, so the numbers for a new high dollar ride aren't that big, especially compared to the equipment and stuff. My LT70 wasn't cheap and doesn't even come with a heated seat!
No heated seat on the lt 70, whats this world coming too?? It is a shame that my ctl is more comfortable than my daily driver. Then again maybe its for the best considering the terrain difference between the two. :D These are odd times we are living in. Gotta sit back and see how this all plays out.
Ian fixed declining lumber prices...in a most unfortunate way.
Quote from: taylorsmissbeehaven on September 30, 2022, 07:26:05 AM
Even before the pandemic it was getting hard to buy a work truck. Now its impossible. How did folks ever get along before there seats were heated??
I priced out a '23 F-250 XL, crew cab, 8' bed, 4x4, 7.3gas and a few options to make it work better as a truck. I don't care about the interior beyond power windows, I'd get it without A/C if that was an option and rubber floors are easier to keep clean (when actually working) than carpet. It has an MSRP of $59,8XX and the dealer will sell it to me for that but I'd have to wait for quite a while to actually get it.
I suspect that CTLs. mini excavators, telehandlers, work trucks and lots of other equipment, building materials and home furnishings are going to be in high demand/short supply due to Ian.
Watching the news a few minutes ago, in the background a truck with two or three CTLs rolled through behind the reporter.
I have been nursing my 150k mile truck along for about a year and half. I absolutely refuse to play the games being played. I imagine a sizeable percent of the backlog is people thinking the inflation game will continue. "Hey, I can buy stuff, write off the depreciation" and it will actually appreciate. Yep a few lucky folks cashed that covid check. Thing is the pendulum always overcorrects and it is now on the downswing.
Covid comes along about every 100 years or so. That last 2 years were an anomaly. Household debt is moving into record levels. The bubble is going to burst and soon. You got 100k and need a truck than by all means enjoy the ride. Think the 100k truck used will be worth more than 50K 2 years down the road, you may be disappointed.
Everyone crying about a 100k diesel truck better get use to it. Everything has gone up. We are on new levels on everything and if and when stuff comes down I seriously doubt you will buy a 100k diesel truck in two years for 50k. And if it's dually truck they hold value even more
I am old enough to remember both 2008 and the '80s farm crisis. History will repeat itself again.
I do know one thing the one acre of land I'm selling for 44k will be worth more than that 100k truck diesel or no diesel in a few years 😂
Quote from: Southside on September 30, 2022, 09:17:26 PM
I am old enough to remember both 2008 and the '80s farm crisis. History will repeat itself again.
History always repeats itself. I'm old enough to have managed 18% interest rates in the late 80's here during "the recession we had to have" which was government induced. That hurt, but overwhelmingly business confidence was strong. We did need it too... that couple years of treasury induced pain saved us a big crash during the Asian/Japanese crash on the 90's.
I'm not old enough to have managed the inflationary spiral of the 70's though so my personal playbook doesn't have a survival guide for what's ahead yet. But I'll manage, cuz I'm flexible, and inherently fiscally conservative, and know when to put it all on the line and when to duck for cover.
What gets me though is that I'm just a dumb old sawmiller who knows that history repeats itself... and there's a lot of supposedly smart people who manage economies who can't seem to learn new ways to avoid the same cyclic disasters.
History is all we have. Who can see the future? History tells us what could happen next.
Had structural steel fabrication and erecting company for 30 years, did $ 1,000,000 jobs.
Minimal equipment owned, union iron workers, rented shop, $800 month
Doing tree work now, good local equipment.
Bucket truck, dump truck, chipper, $ 25,000
Can't believe what people spend on equipment
Me and Moodnacreek think alike, just wish he'd
move to next door to me 😳
I've noticed a couple ads lately of someone who ordered a mill a year ago, and are selling it new straight away. It almost seems like they were speculating. Either that or really changed their mind. But seemed more like speculating.
I put off my mill upgrade when lead times started backing up. I've held off. I think there's going to be a lot of lightly used Woodmizers and other mills on the market over the next few years. I think that will make new mill sales crash. They may have to reduce staff at places like woodmizer until thing start normalizing and the flood of mills in the market gets absorbed. Talk about creating sales, cash flow chaos! Woodmizer may have had a great 2-3 years, but will probably pay for it with low sales for a few too.
I don't think I'll come out ahead as when I do upgrade mills, even if prices are low, I'll need to sell my current mill, so I'll come out slightly behind probably.
Dunno about that, I think the reason for the long order delays with most manufacturers is that they didn't ( or couldn't due to supply chain issues) really increase production . So they've made no more equipment than they would have anyway...it's just the wait list blew out.
So the bottom falls out of wood prices, orders get cancelled or slow down, they can just carry on regardless. And yup there'll likely be a lot of low hours second hand units come onto the market in the next few years. But that's not unusual either because people are always cashing out or trading up. It won't push new prices down, it will mean though that a lot of speculative or hasty buyers are going to take a hit and that's not a bad thing either, if a few don't get burnt it will happen again
Inflation - Rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is high right now, so prices are high. The Fed is trying to curtail it, but....
As inflation goes up, prices go up, and yes some people will back out of things, but many will try to adjust and save money by doing DIY projects. I'm already seeing it here, I get many more "Will you saw these logs up for me because Lowe's (retail) lumber is expensive?" calls than I did just a few months ago.
I imagine many of them next going to websites and looking to buy small sawmills for themselves and increasing WM and other's backlog.
We peaked out at a tad under $100K of log, lumber and supply purchases in September because of high wholesale prices (ain't no prices going down here in Alabama). However, we also made more net profit due to increased sales this September than last year's September, due DIY woodworkers demand for high quality lumber as opposed to skyrocketing ready made furniture and house supply costs.
The only thing higher than lumber prices are furniture prices, so if a woodworker wants stuff, they will build it and save big money in the long run. If I have to pay more for my supplies, they have to pay more to buy it. I'm not in business to lose money. So I'm seeing both the wholesale and retail side, and it's just painful to me as as a Mom and Pop business writing big checks every day to get logs and stuff, and it's painful for the customers who have to buy it.
I'm sure prices will drop at some point, but it's not next week, I know because I have some stuff coming in. First load? Exotics from Ontario, Canada tomorrow, 0900. Time to get the checkbook out. Sigh....
"Exotic hardwoods from Ontario, Canada".
Well, now the world really HAS turned upside down! 🙃
(I realize it's an example of what happens when some joker tries to price gouge YH.)
Not too long ago, I was looking for French doors for a hall closet. The best doors for the money were at Menards in Fargo,ND. Sure enough, the label said "Proudly made in Quebec, Canada". Up here, we're used to the volume discount that large corporations get, and shrug it off when our huge American corporate neighbours can sell for less money than Canadians sell to each other.
Inflation will last a while, it's a tricky beast that bites back hard when it's treated with harsh measures. Look at Japan's financial history over the last fifteen years.
The other 'disrupter' is the retreat on globalization. If 40,000 Ford SuperDuty trucks can't be sold for a lack of computer chips, well, it doesn't take long before your President announces funding for chip plants in the USA. The same can be said for vaccine manufacturing plants.
My flawed, cracked and foggy crystal ball says that prices and demand will stay up for quite a while and that supply issues will be un-stable for about the same length of time.
Unless they don't. 🤔
Prices for red oak and poplar logs are down. Maple and White Oak holding steady. Ag products are down this past week. Rents are down a smidgeon. Fuel has been dropping until recently. I think inflation month to month is very small. But year over year is up. Energy is a big component in shipping and shipping costs should not be going up. Instead they should be going down. Price of cedar logs has peaked. Wages are not rising in our area.
In one month there is an election. Will see if there is a major party change in the house and senate. Don't know what difference that will make.
The money flooding in is going to the already rich and they can only buy so many trinkets. Raw land may keep going up as that money looks for a home. Just my perspective.
Seemed to be a lot fewer cars on the interstate in Mo last Tue. People seem to be driving less.
Cedar demand still high, so we will keep sawing.
Our 26 year old LT30 super is still sawing about 1200 hours per year as good as ever. So all those old mills can still be productive. So I think there will be a glut in the near future. Prices will drop IMHO.
Quote from: YellowHammer on September 28, 2022, 01:06:45 PM
I bought 4 different species (packs) of hardwood lumber last week, one dropped, one stayed the same, and two were higher.
I bought a pack of 8/4 soft maple today, it went up since last time I bought it, fairly recently.
I'm getting some 8/4 walnut tomorrow, same price as last month, nearly $9 per bdft.
I don't do much softwood, but the hardwood and exotics I have to buy are still painfully high.
I have my second truck from Canada coming in next week because I can't get decent exotics at wholesale prices in the States. It's less expensive for me to bring it from Canada to Alabama, than from North Carolina to Alabama. Go figure.
Exotics mean what species? 28 miles from me is Morehead, KY and the 2nd largest hardwood center in the world and Hickory, NC, thats #1, is maybe closer to you. Canada seems a stretch. "They come here to KY for hardwoods from Canada."
Green FAS 8/4 Walnut is $2.73 in this week's HMR and 2A is $.90 and all grades continue in the downward price spiral. Thats about half what brought less than a year ago.
How long you think they'll go down stave? I mean walnut and everything else
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/21488/120D45CB-6A5B-4655-97BE-7013B03134DA.jpeg?easyrotate_cache=1664845529)
I received a load of mahogany, sapele, zebra wood and Paduak from Ontario, Canada this morning. All were less expensive than any other prices I could get in the US, some very significantly so.
Shipping was FREE. Zero$$ from Canada.
Two of the exotics dealers I had bid on the package, (I take competitive bids on exotics from about 4 to 5 different suppliers, in both the US and Canada, for any orders over $10K, anybody is welcome to bid), added significant freight charges, one was $2 per bdft, the other was $1 per bdft. None could fill my order at the same price, not to mention time frame, and all the spieces, including shipping and maintain quality. I have no preference on exotics dealers, they must compete on price quality and delivery schedule. Someone give me the names of places they think are viable, I will call them tomorrow. I need Bloodwood and Spanish cedar ASAP. At wholesale prices. The grade is LWC (Long, Wide and Clear).
I've tried all the well known ones and many of the lesser ones. Any on Google and many that aren't. The ones I have dealt with are in several states including Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Canada. One place that couldn't give me a ship date claims they are the largest exotics dealer in the US and supplies wood to Woodcraft and Canada. It's one of two I have used in North Carolina. They have screwed me on the last two orders and I'm tired of it. The last orders orders from them took many, many months and they kept telling me "two weeks,". Then they sent me a whole load of purple heart, all 38" long and 4" wide, which I assume were cutoffs from a more valued or bigger customer's order. What a joke. They are one of the reason I've decided to diversify, they had me over a barrel and it isn't going to happen again, because I had orders from customers, and these guys hung me out to dry. They are officially off my list. They also went up significantly on price. Either way, I wouldn't buy from them anyway, anymore.
Remember, I'm buying at wholesale prices and selling retail. Most of these places aren't cutting prices down for wholesale anymore, or their wholesale prices are approaching retail at least to small operators like me. I'm tired of working deals with companies like this, they can take a leap. I must be doing something right, the owner of Woodcraft in Birmingham called a few months ago asking for me to supply them exotic wood because, in his words "my quality is higher and my price is cheaper" than anyone they could get exotics from. Basically, I was beating their procurement team and they wanted me to work for them. By the way, one of their wholesalers is the same place in North Carolina that was jerking me around, so at least it's good to know I wasn't the only one.
Last Wednesday 8/4 FAS walnut, kiln dried, was $8.60 from one source and $10.70 for prime 8/4 from another. One source is the second largest hardwood distributer and dealer in the south US. I paid the $8.60 plus a hefty fuel surcharge that brought it to nearly $9 per bdft. Not surfaced, rough sawn.
There is a long delay from green wood in the HMR to wholesale sales prices. The companies who have inventory must clear it. They clear their inventory by selling to companies like me, at the wholesale prices they paid yesterday, not the prices of today. So then I set retail prices based on the prices I pay, so there is a significant trickle down time. I adjust my prices based on a detailed formula and database, and its black and white. I am not seeing the HMR reflected prices in KD wood from the wholesalers I'm buying from. It will be interesting to see how long out takes to filter down to business like me.
KD prices as of Wednesday or the week before from a major southern wholesaler in that I bought high 95% yield FAS from. These guys supply retailers, that's their business, have a 5 day a week truck delivery route, they are not hacks, they are big. I have two of these retail supply companies that I am in coverage range and both have approximately the same prices, give or take. I purchase from either based on their prices or availability.
Walnut 8/4 $8.60
Wide Sort red oak $3.49
8/4 white oak $6.75
4/4 basswood $3.15
I'll repost prices as they drop.
I bought 2 loads of logs last week, basswood mostly, (because of the price listed above), and some assorted other stuff, from $1.85 and down, on the log.
Yea, but can they get you any Sweet Gum? :D
I'm seeing similar kinds of thing here. I sell some products at wholesale, buy others at wholesale for resale. There are some weird things happening in the market - the AUD is low which normally pushes imported materials prices up, but I'm seeing some pretty good deals floating around which look pretty breakeven from the wholesalers point of view (to me) unless they're trying to offload stock to reduce exposure or they picked it up cheaper than I would expect.
I'm seeing low demand for domestic cabinet and joinery species, while demand for upper end commodity stuff like premium domestic decking and flooring is high. That may be more "demand for my product" than general demand though, although an abnormally wet year to the south of me has meant a lot of the big mills have starved for logs.
I can't cut enough large end section to keep up with demand, either my own retail or the couple wholesale guys I still deal with. I'm slugging them on price and still they come.
Government intervention in the fuel price ended last week, so non business fuels jumped 20c/litre. That's going to bite into a lot of household budgets. Add to which yet another rate hike is expected today, that makes 6 rises in as many months and effectively doubles the amount of interest paid on a household mortgage.
Housing approvals for the last quarter are overall higher, but a lot of that is apartments which tend to have a longer planning time. Detached housing approvals however have fallen 4.3% on the last quarter, and I consider that a more timely barometer of whats ahead.
What Im expecting here is a gradual coast to a stop, not an overnight crash. Of course one good cyclone - and we haven't had any for a couple years so its overdue - can override national market trends with local demand. I'm not worried about where things are headed... but I am getting mindfull about writing out cheques for stuff that might take an extended timeframe to give me a return.
Here's an interesting follow up. After I posted this at 9 pm, I sent a few emails out for the Bloodwood and Spanish cedar. It's now 9:19 pm, guess who has already replied saying they would get me a quote first thing? That is customer service.
I agree, I have been selling off my high priced inventory to hopefully track downward pricing on the stuff I have to buy.
I was sawing basswood today, I hope I can sell it more than I paid for my logs. Scratch that. I won't sell it at a loss.
I've got a couple packs of Spanish Cedar floating around in stock somewhere... it's on the just not moving list. Not enough for a TEU though.
If Bloodwood means the Australian species that's right up there on the can't keep up with demand for flooring and decking list... it looks like Reds are coming back into fashion domestically
Had a contractor stop in yesterday to get a mantel for a new house he is about to finish up on. Said he is still booked out for over 2 years. Ordered material for the next house and was quoted a little under $3.50 for 2x4x8s and about $12.00 for 7/16 OSB. I think the houses are going to cost about the same in the end as the high priced material houses did last year with the higher interest rates. I'm getting more and more customers bringing in loads of logs to be sawed. If that is even possible. I've had a few months of record sales this year but I should be due to having raised most of my prices. A few years ago I was sawing for 35 cents per bf. Now I'm having to charge 60 cents per bf. That's almost 100 percent increase but I don't have any options due to my raising cost. I don't know what any of this means other than I'm going to go with the KOKO rule of logic. (Keep On Keeping On)
Lets go get to sawing.
It is funny how my tiny operation follows the world wide trends. For the past several years I can't give away red oak or cherry or any thing else red or even called red something. The fad chasers only know white oak and black walnut.
Robert,
When you buy from these various exotic lumber suppliers, do you have an estimate of what percentage is ready for resale based on your higher standards? Any idea what percent you have to "rework" before you will sell it? I assume you have to plane or re-plane and trim to acceptable quality and I was wondering how much loss you encounter in the process. Thanks.
Quote from: moodnacreek on October 04, 2022, 08:49:31 AM
It is funny how my tiny operation follows the world wide trends. For the past several years I can't give away red oak or cherry or any thing else red or even called red something. The fad chasers only know white oak and black walnut.
I read an article a while ago. Setting trends is now a business and a fad or style can go world wide in a day on social media.
One example is coffee shops are all brick/wood/industrial.
go figure.
WV Sawmiller (https://forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=profile;u=28064)
You hit the nail right on the head as one reason I like selling exotics. The short answer is exotic wood from a quality supplier will be 100% usable, zero defect, perfect. There is no NHLA grader pushing out 86% FAS and there is nobody sending me 30% of boards 7 feet long when I order a pack of 8 footers.
However, bad exotics dealers just like bad domestic wood suppliers will sell marginal grades, and since exotics don't follow NHLA grade rules, it can come in any width, length, and grade, no matter what the company says it is. That's how to get ripped off, they send a pack or garbage, and once I get it, I own it. I can't send it back. Been there, done that.
However, a good exotic dealer will sell only one grade of wood, and it's got a grade of "perfect" as hard as that is to believe. Some very small percentage will have a few end splits, but otherwise no knots at all. So when I buy exotics from a reliable dealer, it comes it with the grade of "WCL" as in Wide, Clear, and Long. I should have taken a picture of the wood we got in earlier this week. Mahogany 12" to 18" wide, zero knots, zero wane, 8 feet long and glows in the sun, zebra wood a little narrower, but perfect, sapele 16 feet long. Perfect. Some companies will send it rough sawn, some will send it skip planed. It's actually rare to have a board that has a defect.
As an interesting side note, yesterday morning I ran out of FAS red oak, I have several thousand bdft air drying, but sold the last KD I had. So I called up my main supplier, the second largest hardwood dealer in the Southern US, and asked for FAS 4/4 KD red oak, 8 feet long. That should have been just about the most common and easy order for them to fill. Their answer was "Sold out, but we do have some 12 footers, but that's it." However they are getting a railcar of it in next week supposedly, so I am on the list to get some. The point is that at least for this week, the second largest hardwood lumber dealer and distributer in the South was sold out of 8 foot long, 4/4 FAS red oak. I didn't even get to ask the price, I guess I will find out next week if they get some in.
Sounds like another time the HWM report might be off a bit.
Working on an order of 13,500 ' of #2 cedar. Not a very good grade.
Customer is slicing and dicing into 1" x 1" x 3" pieces. Yield will be great for that kind of work.
Price is right for them too. And I am getting rid of a lot of lumber we usually grind into sawdust particles.
So glad I don't have to come up with a lot of clear wood.!!
But making the customer happy is the name of the game.
They set the specs and we get to set the price.
A lot more fun than commodity sawing.
I got bit yesterday, a customer asked for a price on 500-1x6x6' Doug fir. I gave him the price and he sent me a picture of an add for a fence company who is having a winter liquidation sale on western red cedar 5/8" & 3/4". I reworked my quote to the same dimensions and I'm .09/bdft cheaper though it's still apples and oranges with 2 different species. Had he asked for a price on cedar, I would have been.01 higher.
Returning to the speculation going on on new mills. After reviewing some of the sawmill related auction sites, I'm seeing a number of mills listed as brand new.
If that's the case, and they sell at more than new prices, there's a lot of money being made by sellers and auction houses on new mills.
Ad just came up on fb mp for a new, unassembled LT10 for 5k. Is the lt10 still part of the product line? Pictures posted and it is indeed new and still in pieces.
How long has the LT10 been sitting there unassembled ? Maybe "new old stock" (NOS).
Must be. I don't know what the asking price represents- low, high, above original price?
Not something I'm interested in.
My next mill will be full hydraulic. Just waiting things out for a while and see what the trend might be.
Quote there's a lot of money being made by sellers and auction houses on new mills.
And likely that is speculation too. :D ;)
The standard NHLA lumber grades were designed to allow full utilization of the resource into basic grades that met the majority of user needs. Nothing wrong with the grades, the issue is greed. I really don't know what someone expects to build out 16' 18" clear boards and do no slicing and dicing. Most likely they will still have lots of short scrap that they paid mega bucks for when they are finished and don't realize that they probably could have bought mill run FAS at 1/2 the cost and got all the long and clear they actually needed.
The problem with buying FAS from a shop that also caters to the "super ultra special snob market" is that all the full length, full width zero defect stuff was already sold. Small mills that don't have the volume to do those infinite sorts will be a much better source especially if both the mill and the logger are held to a "woods run" and "mill run" standards without cherry picking all the premium stuff out of it.
As far as HMR market reports there is always a lag between what's reported and reality both in good times and bad. If you see mostly bold "+" then premiums are being paid above what is quoted and the same holds true when the market is in decline. In a softening market you will have to discount a good bit from HMR to make a sale.
There also come a point(like now) that Red Oak is below the cost to produce it. The big mills that sort for color and width also tend to have deep pockets and won't offer lumber at less than replacement cost. Wholesalers are only interested in carrying inventory when prices are increasing. Green, Red Oak is plenty available at bargain pricing, but nobody wants to touch it without a firm order in hand.
beenthere, yes! An auction is speculation of sorts by everyone. This is especially true with no reserves and 13% buyer's premium.
Talked to the salesman at CAT on smaller equipment side and he said he had two calls all of September when he usually has five a day. Many guys are not buying until they see what happens in November even the guys that need to buy before the end of the year. He also said and he said he can't blame them. Many guys are selling their own machines instead of paying them to do it. New machine wait time isn't as long and the used side selling that was crazy for him last year has cooled off
Quote from: stavebuyer on October 06, 2022, 01:52:44 PM
from a shop that also caters to the "super ultra special snob market" is
All I need to do is find a small percentage of the "Super Ultra Special Snob Market" out of the 2.2 million people living within a 50 mile radius of me, who are rightfully tired of spending big money at Lowes, Home Depot, Rockler, Woodcraft and the other local retail outlets mills to keep me selling all I can get and make. Oddly enough, I just call them "Customers."
Quote from: SawyerTed on October 06, 2022, 11:59:14 AM
Returning to the speculation going on on new mills.
I agree, I think it best to return this topic to sawmills and machines. Everybody has their own lumber market, so enough about mine.
Had a Quote on a CAT excavator with a cat branded FAE head, hydraulic tilt and bucket and debris package exactly one year ago in October. That same quote today is over 37,000 more for exactly the same package minus the debris package. So basically 40,000+ higher than exactly one year ago on a package under 200k
Brightstar auction just sold a 2021 LT35 with 13hrs for 22k + commission I think. An LT40 with 300 hrs and a gas engine for hydraulics brought 21k +.
Seems like they are cooling off?
I hope so, I want an LT40 (or 50) and would rather not have to wait half of forever or pay through the nose to have one quickly. I'm liking that % off new for the 13hr LT35, seems far more reasonable.
Just for giggles I just priced a 35. OMG, set up the same as mine it's almost triple what I bought mine for in 2014 with 800 hours.
I'm not shocked at all. I know what I'm having to pay for other things right now. I wouldn't expect WM to be getting any hired help, insurance, materials, especially steel and wiring for any where close to what they were paying 8 years ago. I had to pay 425 bucks for a couple of short hyd. lines the other day. Grocery store had a quart of Hellmans mayo for 10 bucks. The price of nothing surprises me anymore.
Quote from: tacks Y on October 06, 2022, 08:41:53 PM
Brightstar auction just sold a 2021 LT35 with 13hrs for 22k + commission I think. An LT40 with 300 hrs and a gas engine for hydraulics brought 21k +.
Seems like they are cooling off?
Maybe, but look at what it is, lt40, with a gas engine for hydraulics, so not factory but a DIY modification .
I got a quote on a hydr 35. 46000 did not have the debarker.
OMG Southside is writing like a teenage girl texting😂
7/16" OSB is $12.50 a sheet, national average , but locally they want $23. And it is made here in NB by Arbec. Lumber is $750/th for 2 x 4" x 8' or about $4 nationally, but $5.48 locally.
I was like totally blown away! Gag me with a spoon Barbender. :D