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Author Topic: Over-management for sugar maple  (Read 2531 times)

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Offline wisconsitom

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2019, 09:12:55 AM »
Pollen samples go back millions of years and are reliable indicators of climate characteristics.  Nor would any climate scientist make such obvious mistakes as you outline in your post, Southside.  We-by which I mean mankind-actually do have extensive climate records.  Not hundreds of year.  Millions of years.

Nor does the obvious fact that things change all the time somehow disprove the impact of what's going on now.

tom

Offline TKehl

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2019, 11:53:01 AM »
Exactly.  I have no desire to argue cause of change, just acknowledge that change happens and watch trends.
 
As such Im trying to set our family farm (immovable object) to be as successful as possible within the range I see as possible.  For me, I expect the range of the next 50 years to be between the past 50 year average to something warmer and drier on average, (but also not ignoring that cooler and wetter isnt impossible).  It also seems like weather patterns are sitting in one place longer, backed up by studies showing a weakening jet stream.  (Long term or short term? ???) So we may have similar amounts of rain in the year, but have them be in larger events with a lot of runoff followed by longer dry periods. 
 
I dont ever expect to be on the west side of the dry line, but there is less rainfall in eastern KS and I could see that moving, accordion like, toward our farm.
 
Beyond water, Im also looking at tree species to focus on, though changes there for my location are minimal thankfully.  It seems the species that may struggle most are ones Im already culling heavily.  Though if planting new walnut, I may reconsider marginal sites and only plant on good ones.  Im also strongly considering planting Chestnuts for nut production on 5-50 acres.
 
My goal is to set the farm up to thrive in the face of change, or if nothing changes at all.  ;)  :)  8)
In the long run, you make your own luck good, bad, or indifferent. Loretta Lynn

Offline wisconsitom

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2019, 12:30:03 PM »
TKehl, then in that sense, you and I are indeed on the same page.  Also like you, my intent is to set things up at my property so as to allow for the best outcome possible for the near- to mid-term.  After that, I simply can't track anything.  I suppose one way to look at it would be to say..."I'd like my grand-kids to have something good to work with up there"....or words like that.  Beyond 2 or 3 generations....who knows?

And in that regard, on my job I am responsible for something called "native restoration", whereby we in the Stormwater utility seek to install and enhance native vegetation communities around these relatively numerous and vast sites.  And in that capacity I have been given the task of designing a forest planting to take place at a new pond we start digging this summer.  Because the site is quite flat, wet-mesic, and because our soils here are circum-neutral due to limestone bedrock, and because we were originally very much in the belt that supported good white-cedar growth, I am using that species as the centerpiece of a forest community planting that will also feature early and mid-succession species.  Yet if I am completely honest....let's see...white-cedar can live 1000 years.....should I be doing this?  Even I have to admit, I'm not using the best science available in designing this planting.  Heck, I've got paper birch in there, and that too is on the list of species expected to have tough times here in the not-too-distant future.  1000 years is way too long to truly expect something to work out like that.  Of course, not one person has any kind of expectation like that, not because they are knowledgeable, but instead, because they know nothing about trees and forests and wouldn't even know what questions to ask!

I will write a management plan for my successor(s).  In that plan, I will outline changes that may occur, species that could be interplanted at a later date, and general succession ideas that could be followed.  The good news there is that there is not one correct path for the future....but many possible ways to go.  Further, the individual who is expected to take over for me when I retire in 2.18 years (lol)..is a capable and highly-intelligent guy.  He'll do a great job when I'm done here.

Thanks,
tom
 
PS...for a "native restoration" guy, I'm way outside the mold.  I actually believe that-for just one example, and there are many more-the hybrid larch that I and some others are touting could play a part in healing the landscape across the north.  Low-value forests could be cleared, the fast-growing larch planted in alternating fashion with whatever desirable species or group of species one deems fit...and then the lightly-shading larch will grow much faster, yield a usable product, and then be cut at about 20 years of age and out of the way for your oaks or whatever.  Tip of the iceberg.....I could go on and on......and on!  We can shape the world of the future.....not just in negative ways....but actually for the better!

Thanks,
tom

Offline Klunker

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #43 on: February 25, 2019, 12:47:37 AM »
I wouldn't get too shook up over global warming.
Global cooling would be much worse.
Maunder minimum is a real possibility.

Is a Mini Ice Age Coming? 'Maunder Minimum' Spurs Controversy

Of course its going to be poo poo'd as there is no money in carbon offsets etc etc if the sun is at blame and there is nothing that can be done.

Offline TKehl

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #44 on: February 25, 2019, 10:57:49 AM »
I am familiar with studies about the solar cycle and the Maunder Minimum.  It is worth considering and is a factor in my decisions.  Change happens (large volcanic eruptions etc.) especially over long timeframes and Earth has mechanisms to get back to equilibrium as long as the pendulum doesnt swing too far.  I have no interest arguing about cause, but a lot of interest in avoiding negative impacts of change.   ;D  
 
I am a physicist that likes to farm, and only read a bit about climate science.  Enough to have opinions on why, but not enough to feel confident taking a position beyond my plans for the farm.  Even so, Im only planning for the next hundred or so years on our farm is all.  😉  Around one generation of timber.  
 
Our farm has been in the family since 1911 and has required adapting several times.  I would go broke breeding horses and farming with mules like great and double great grandpa (even they supplemented with butchering on the side.)  I would go broke trying to run a small scale dairy like my grandpa.  I would go broke (and almost did) running pigs on dirt like dad.  All those things made a living for them for years, but the economic environment has changed.  The farm is profitable, but not at full time income levels yet.  Our mix involves beef cattle, meat goats, timber, sawmill, crafts, and a little heavy equipment work.  I have no idea what my kids or grandkids economic environment will be if they choose to stay on the farm, but I bet there will be changes.   ;)
In the long run, you make your own luck good, bad, or indifferent. Loretta Lynn

Offline Klunker

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Re: Over-management for sugar maple
« Reply #45 on: February 27, 2019, 12:54:04 AM »
I would bet on colder and drier.

Past history dictates that.

The Sun is going to sleep last grand solar minimum 400 years ago(3) - YouTube

If global warming is a very real possibility how come all the believers (Al Gore for one) are burning fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow? They always want the Gov. to solve the problem with taxes and prohibitions that reduce the standard of living for the "little guys" while they fly around on private jets.

In any way trying to guess what the climate will be like in 10, 20 or 30 years is folly. There is no way of knowing. I'll continue planting what has grown in my area for the last several centuries.

If I had a choice between warmer or colder I'll take warmer, much easier to survive a warmer climate rather than a colder one.






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