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Author Topic: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.  (Read 8061 times)

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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #300 on: March 26, 2020, 07:18:56 PM »
Just went to get beer!!



And ya got caught to. I would advise against getting caught after being ordered to self isolate.



7 new cases found here in NB today, 33 in total.




Move'n on.

Offline donbj

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #301 on: March 26, 2020, 11:25:06 PM »
The China numbers seem to be stable actually though, assuming they have not cut us off.

I watched Trump in his news brief today and agree with him on the China numbers, we have no idea what they are. I would not trust them at all.
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Offline Brucer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #302 on: March 27, 2020, 12:54:04 AM »
Picking up the Mail?  ... I thought about our mail and today I used a plastic grocery bag turned inside out on my hand to open/remove mail/close the box then used my other hand to turn the bag right again with the mail inside. For now the mail is hanging in the garage untouched and by what I've heard it should be safe in a day or two. Any better ideas?

The virus can survive for quite a while on really hard surfaces, such as smooth plastics or metals. It doesn't do as well on materials like cardboard (and I suspect paper would be similar). The virus can survive longer if it's kept wet. The most recent tests say that cardboard should be OK after 3 hours exposed to the air.

I've heard about some social media posts saying to keep parcels wrapped in plastic for 4 days. Sounds like a great way to preserve the virus.

I'd like to see some reporting about how the virus spread locally.  They must collect some info from people who test positive about who they were in contact with and how they may have contracted it. 

Has anybody seen anything useful about this for your area or any area?

I've been tracking the numbers in Canada since the first case on January 25. In BC our chief public health doctor made it clear they would be tracking sources and contacts aggressively until it began to spread in the community. After that they would do as much tracking as they could until it became impractical.

Case #44 in Canada (#21 in BC) could not be traced back to any overseas travel or contacts with infected people. That was our first case of community spread. Unfortunately she was a health care worker in an extended care home and that became the site of most of BC's deaths. Because there was no way to locate an initial contact, there is always the possibility that she acquired the disease from a patient or a visitor.

We continued to receive fairly detailed accounts of further cases (most came from overseas) but after case #47 BC public health stopped providing details on every case and simply gave us daily totals.

As of today about half our confirmed cases in BC are from community spread. That's why the focus has shifted to social distancing, hand-washing, and frequent cleaning.
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Offline Brucer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #303 on: March 27, 2020, 01:28:33 AM »
 COVID-19 Updates: Canada

Built by a graduate from the B.C. Institute of Tech

Here's another one built by a high school student in Washington state.
Coronavirus Dashboard

The numbers don't always match up between the sites during the day because both sites update frequently. Usually in the evening they get pretty close. The best way to track the situation is to pick one site and check the numbers at the same time each day (early morning or in the evening).

The numbers I'm tracking and recording regularly now are for BC because those are the ones that are going to affect me the most.

... The China numbers seem to be stable actually though, assuming they have not cut us off.

They're stable. I've been recording those very closely and the graph looks exactly as it should when an epidemic is brought under control. Despite various suggestions that they've been hiding stuff, they aren't. Researchers in Canada, Europe, & the US have been tracking their numbers from various angles and everything is consistent. With today's genetic tracking capabilities, the days of faking your numbers are long gone.

The Chinese numbers are actually very useful for comparing to other jurisdictions (such as BC ;D). I have a pretty good idea of when we're going to run out of hospital beds here (3 weeks at the current rate) by taking data from China and using it to analyze our numbers.

Russia seems quite low according to the link that dgdrls posted.

Now they are hiding stuff. They were pretending things were under control until it became obvious to everyone in the country that they were not. Up until recently the message to the public was that Russia did things better and that's why they had so many fewer cases than any other country.

I read an interview with a Russian doctor last week and he said he wasn't reporting any obvious Covid-19 cases because if he did the authorities would shut down his office (for health reasons) and he would lose his income.
Bruce    LT40HDG28 bandsaw with two 6' extensions.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand wrong answers."

Online Ianab

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #304 on: March 27, 2020, 03:05:10 AM »
The virus can survive for quite a while on really hard surfaces, such as smooth plastics or metals. It doesn't do as well on materials like cardboard (and I suspect paper would be similar). The virus can survive longer if it's kept wet. The most recent tests say that cardboard should be OK after 3 hours exposed to the air.


One of my part time jobs is sorting mail for a friends Rural mail run. Just from my experience no one in the NZ Post system has got the virus (yet). That in spite of handling hundreds of parcels out of China, and now other countries.  So I suspect your 3 hour estimate is likely correct, and the virus would dry up and die in that time. That's not to say we aren't concerned about it, and taking extra care with the hand washing etc. 

Now if the virus was trapped in a layer of oil (from folks hands) on a door handle, it might stay viable for much longer, which is why they are looking at the NY Subway system as a transfer vector. Lots of hands on hand rails etc means lots of potential for transfer. 

As for the Chinese numbers? Judging by the pickup in mail from China, they are mostly "open for business". They got it badly wrong initially by denying there was a new outbreak, and have paid pretty dearly for that. But their system did allow them to lock down infected people and even whole cities. How accurate their numbers actually are I don't know, heck they could be slipping a decimal point for all we know. But from what I can see the outbreak is mostly controlled over there. 

There is no reason to doubt South Korea's numbers, and despite an early outbreak they mostly have it under control (or a flattened curve more likely) . But again that was because of some intense intervention early on. 
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #305 on: March 27, 2020, 05:54:26 AM »
With lack of testing, the numbers world wide are only telling us who they already know. If I was a betting man, I would bet the real numbers are a least 30% higher globally. Austria, with the top notch healthcare is saying the actual numbers within it's borders could be as much as 60% higher. There are experts saying that and have been saying that for awhile now. Just hope we are not in a situation like Spain right now, nothing to work with at the front line, doctors are saying. But, things seem to levelling off in China for now. In 1-3 years there is going to be a lot of documentaries on this mess with lots of points of view and finger pointing. :D

Podcast - Nothing to work with - Spain
Move'n on.

Offline Magicman

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #306 on: March 27, 2020, 09:21:40 AM »
Since we are now finding out that probably Mardi Gras in New Orleans in early February caused their large numbers, this virus has been with us and "unknown" for quite a while.  The pandemic and knowledge of the spread now is after the cat got out of the bag.
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Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #307 on: March 27, 2020, 09:37:17 AM »
I think it is possible we will all test + in the end.  If it is really infectious then we will all have immunity.  this may be better, otherwise lifting the self quarantine could result in a second peak.  the advantage is the slower spread gives us ability to treat fewer people at a time.  6 in our county and expected to peak mid April.  we are fine.  spending more time getting ready.  not overwhelmed as patients are following directions, with only a few being very irritated by the changes.  prepare for the worst, and hope and pray for the best.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline 21incher

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #308 on: March 27, 2020, 09:39:17 AM »
Read an interesting article.  On the cruise ship that had passengers with Corona they left 1 room unsanitized and found live Corona 17 days later. Sounds like in the proper environment it can survive longer then original claimed.
Hudson HFE-21 on a custom trailer, Deere 4100, Kubota BX 2360, Echo CS590 & CS310, home built wood splitter, home built log arch, and a logrite cant hook.

Offline petefrom bearswamp

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #309 on: March 27, 2020, 09:44:58 AM »
I am not too sure of the "county " numbers as if the virus respects political boundaries.
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Offline Ron Scott

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #310 on: March 27, 2020, 04:10:56 PM »
Forest Products Industry Deemed Critical Infrastructure
March 25, 2020

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently included the forest products industry in guidance issued on the "Identification of Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers During COVID-19 Response." The memo designated "workers who support the manufacture and distribution of forest products, including, but not limited to timber, paper, and other wood products” as essential and urged them to maintain operations.

SAF applauds this designation and encourages all states to specifically exempt forest products industry businesses and workers when considering shelter-in-place orders or other restrictions. 

"We cannot express our gratitude enough to our members and others across the industry who are working hard to continue providing essential goods and services to the American people during these trying times," said SAF CEO Terry Baker. "Thank you all and please be safe." 

Click here to read the DHS guidance.

Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #311 on: March 27, 2020, 05:14:47 PM »
I figured it must be, since two loads of aspen pulp left the neighbor's on the 25th for Huber's mill in Easton, Maine. Has to cross the border to get there.

Take me for instance, most of my work is alone tying ribbon and walking in edges of cuts and plantations. Even thinning, I'm on my own strip of ground. There is no contact with anyone either as maps go through email and software that uses the internet. Lots of forestry workers that are working distant from others out there. :)
Move'n on.

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #312 on: March 27, 2020, 10:33:56 PM »
Pete you are correct, the virus has no idea what county it is in.  the US number comes from each states health dept., such as our state, the Kansas State Department of Health and Environment.  the state gets their numbers from county health departments, such as Reno county Health department.  we coordinate and report to the RCHD.  We have a chain of command.   :)
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline barbender

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #313 on: March 27, 2020, 10:45:18 PM »
We've been saying, if we didn't listen to the news, most of us loggers wouldn't know any different. We pretty much have the social distancing thing down already🤷🏽‍♂️😁
Too many irons in the fire

Offline Don P

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #314 on: March 27, 2020, 10:58:50 PM »
Till I stop for fuel. I was at the pump the other day and up comes one of the local ladies with a hug, generally no different than a handshake, which I've been avoiding, but I was thinking "really!" I did air elbow bumps with one of the local farmers the other day, John on his tractor with bales front and rear and me in the truck with the window down :D. Other than that alone in the woods.
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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #315 on: March 28, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »
We are 11 days into self-isolation and it is really upsetting me to witness PatD standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks. It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought very hard about how I can cheer her up. I have even considered letting her in – but rules are rules.
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Offline LeeB

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #316 on: March 28, 2020, 09:54:33 AM »
I'm pretty sure we all know better than that. It did generate a laugh though. :D
'98 LT40HDD/Lombardini, Case 580L, Cat D4C, JD 3032 tractor, JD 5410 tractor, Husky 346, 372 and 562XP's. Stihl MS180 and MS361, 1998 and 2006 3/4 Ton 5.9 Cummins 4x4's, 1989 Dodge D100 w/ 318, and a 1966 Chevy C60 w/ dump bed.

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #317 on: March 28, 2020, 10:02:21 AM »
laughter is the best medicine.   :)
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline Pine Ridge

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #318 on: March 28, 2020, 10:15:51 AM »
Me and my wife have really became good at some of the precautions we are all being asked to do. Social distancing for instance, we haven't made eye contact or spoken to each other in about 3 days now !!!!!!!!
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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #319 on: March 28, 2020, 11:22:22 AM »
We are 11 days into self-isolation and it is really upsetting me to witness PatD standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks. It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought very hard about how I can cheer her up. I have even considered letting her in – but rules are rules.
I started reading this to Jill before I had read it myself. Now I have tears in my eyes. Oh that was funny Lynn. Terrible but funny. Thanks for the laugh.  :D

Brent 


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