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Author Topic: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.  (Read 19762 times)

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Offline Sedgehammer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #540 on: June 19, 2020, 07:04:58 PM »
Read a blurb that there was an article published in the NEJM indicating that people with Type A blood were more prone to serious Covid-19 reactions than people with Type O. Any substance?
That's an affirmative ghost rider. 

Offline lazyflee

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #541 on: June 29, 2020, 12:40:26 AM »
Doc Henderson, I have read some articles about cases spiking but death rates lowering. Some say it's because of better treatments and some say because of more young people and less older people getting infected. Was just wondering what you are seeing in your area? Thanks, Nick

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #542 on: June 29, 2020, 07:35:24 AM »
we are seeing a "rise" in cases.  we are just now testing anyone and everyone who needs/wants it.  so all the above can be factors, the biggest factor is we are testing lots more people.  we were never ever able to truly measure death rate, since all of the asymptomatic folks were staying home and not getting test. if we get a + case, they trace it back to sources, and those folks get tested.  so the prev. infection and death rate was "estimated" by extrapolating data.  We only had about 45 "confirmed" cases in our county.  If that is it, we are at great risk for an outbreak now.  more likely is that many more got it, and were asymptomatic and not tested, but now immune.  Time will tell.  plan for the worst, but hope for the best.  we are now about back up to our pre-covid daily visit number in our ED.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline alan gage

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #543 on: June 29, 2020, 11:30:44 AM »
Doc Henderson, I have read some articles about cases spiking but death rates lowering. Some say it's because of better treatments and some say because of more young people and less older people getting infected. Was just wondering what you are seeing in your area? Thanks, Nick
In our area the majority of cases are 18-60 year olds, about 65-70% if I remember right.
Our county has jumped from the low 40's to mid 70's in the last week. The neighboring county went from about 200 to 238. Everyone expected their numbers to go up a lot more over this past week as a "Test Iowa" mobile testing station was brought into the area. It's hard to tell though since the population swells every summer from non-residents coming to their summer homes and vacationing. As I understand it if someone tests positive it's recorded in their county of residence. So if someone lives in county Y but tests positive in county X, where they have their summer home, it gets recorded in county Y.
Overall people seem less concerned about it than ever. We've locked the door to our office but are still letting people in one at a time. We meet them outside or in the shop when we can. If anything locking the door helps get the point across that we don't want them hanging around. Do your business and get out.
We don't want to get sick or pass along the virus but probably the biggest reason is knowing that if one of us gets it the entire shop will be shut down for at least two weeks. I actually wouldn't mind that since I have lots to do at home but that's a lot of money for the shop to lose and will force some of our customer's to find another shop. Most will return to us but you've got to expect that others won't. 
Alan
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Offline SwampDonkey

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #544 on: June 29, 2020, 04:29:06 PM »
We had 5 cases because of the nursing home incident and no new cases now for 6 days. Two deaths at the home.
Move'n on.

Offline Sedgehammer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #545 on: June 30, 2020, 09:14:16 AM »
Daughter who is a respiratory therapist works at the 2nd largest hospital in the state. Their main ICU is full. Their overflow ICU filled up this weekend. They started a 3rd. Most patients are younger 30+, but nearly all had comorbidities. All but 2 are either hispanic or black. 

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #546 on: June 30, 2020, 09:16:37 AM »
all with covid?
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline WV Sawmiller

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #547 on: June 30, 2020, 09:49:01 AM »
  My wife said she saw where our county got its second case Saturday. A couple weeks ago we got 41 cases last I heard as a church service in an adjoining county and I see where as many as 205 people have been exposed at a gym in a different adjoining county.
Howard Green
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Online LeeB

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #548 on: June 30, 2020, 10:41:39 AM »
My daughter and her family is on watch. The SIL was exposed at work by the girl working right next to him. My son and his family have also been exposed via his sister in law and he is also quarantined waiting results from testing. Daughter lives near us in the next county over. We have had very low cases in our area. The son lives in Austin Texas. They have had a much higher incidence rate.
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Offline Sedgehammer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #549 on: June 30, 2020, 11:07:01 AM »

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #550 on: June 30, 2020, 01:37:40 PM »
Sedge, do you mind if I ask?  Oklahoma City or Tulsa?
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline doctorb

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #551 on: June 30, 2020, 01:53:06 PM »
Regarding the death rates being decreased, many factors may be at play.  Improved care of the disease is one, and the fact that the increase in documented infections seems to be occurring in younger people, who have more physiologic reserve to cope with the disease.  Our understanding of the time course of this disease is clearing.  It takes a while for an increase in new infections to be measurable.  At least 3 weeks and probably more like 4-6 weeks.   Awaiting spikes in numbers of infections after states opened, or after any event like a protest or a political rally, takes a while and itís usually a bit longer than we originally expected. The delay is probably because of the time necessary for the virus to incubate in the person initially exposed, combined with the time it takes that person to infect others.

Death rates are lagging indicators, rising even later.  I wouldnít expect any measure of the death rates to change for 6-8 weeks.  With the rates of virus spread we are now witnessing in parts of the country, unfortunately, a rise in the death rates is almost assured.  We will see.
My father once said, "This is my son who wanted to grow up and become a doctor.  So far, he's only become a doctor."

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #552 on: June 30, 2020, 02:01:48 PM »
I agree.  the rural areas did such a good job following the rules, that the big cities could not.  so now we are most vulnerable for a wave to hit if everyone, for the most part, has not had the disease.  All the fact from fiction will take years to sort out.  Our country has done a good job of pulling together.  we t least now can test anyone that we want to.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #553 on: June 30, 2020, 03:20:30 PM »
End of the week, the Atlantic provinces intend to open borders between them. Not with Quebec or Maine, yet. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador are in that 'bubble'.
Move'n on.

Offline Claybraker

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #554 on: June 30, 2020, 04:03:41 PM »
I agree.  the rural areas did such a good job following the rules, that the big cities could not.  so now we are most vulnerable for a wave to hit if everyone, for the most part, has not had the disease.  All the fact from fiction will take years to sort out.  Our country has done a good job of pulling together.  we t least now can test anyone that we want to.
My neighbor had to get tested (contact with an asymptomatic family member that tested positive).  It was a 6 hour wait in a drive through. Seems to me that needs work, but it's a local problem. What little I know (which isn't much) other than all the fact from fiction will take years to sort out. Currently BMP is implementing test and trace based on the success of other countries at least to this point.  I've been keeping an eye on https://testandtrace.com/state-data/  It's color coded easy to comprehend for us non medical types.

Offline Sedgehammer

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #555 on: June 30, 2020, 04:10:54 PM »
Sedge, do you mind if I ask?  Oklahoma City or Tulsa?
City
My daughter also mentioned that the fear factor in/at the hospital is greatly diminished. She said she's thinks it's from knowing what to do when now vs not knowing anything before. She said plasma is the go to treatment currently. They also promoted her to NICU. Starts next month. She just got her license in January.
She also said it had wiped out an entire hispanic family. Started with the mom, then spread.
I did mention before my wife was exposed from a patient she saw. Had the antibody test. Came back negative.
There also seems to be 2 main variants. D and G. G is many times more infectious, but not any more severe. D is what was spreading this spring.  G is the one spreading now. This is also why it may be affecting certain subsets now.

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #556 on: June 30, 2020, 05:38:39 PM »
the antivirals and the antibodies are at the top of the list.  but still too early to know.  not much to loose at this point.  early in the disease everything works better, later in the course not as much works.  good to know.  so early on everything was reserved for the most ill, and did not show promise,  but early on they do help.
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor

Offline alan gage

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #557 on: June 30, 2020, 06:24:43 PM »
the antivirals and the antibodies are at the top of the list.  but still too early to know.  not much to loose at this point.  early in the disease everything works better, later in the course not as much works.  good to know.  so early on everything was reserved for the most ill, and did not show promise,  but early on they do help.
When you say "early in the disease everything works better" and "early on they do help" do you mean on an individual basis (when a person first gets sick) or in a broad sense (just after a new virus appears in the world)?
Alan
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Offline Ianab

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #558 on: June 30, 2020, 08:02:53 PM »
It makes sense that if you can treat a patient early in the disease, maybe before they really show symptoms, and slow the growth of the virus, that should give the body more time to fight it off, before serious damage is done. Once someones lungs have been turned to sludge, it's very hard to recover from that. 

Then it doesn't need to be a "magic" cure, just a useful treatment, and you could greatly reduce the fatality rate (and the lasting organ damage that seems to be affecting some survivors) 

But to do that you need the contact tracing and testing, which tends to get overwhelmed by a large outbreak. 

NZ borders are still closed to everyone except returning residents and "essential business" travel, and all of those have to do 2 weeks isolation. There are now about 22 active cases, but so far all have been caught at the border, and don't get let out of isolation until they test clear. 2 were accidentally let lose early, but they don't seem to have infected anyone else. 

We have postponed our trip to the Cook Islands that we had planned for late August, and will go to the South Island. Even if travel to the Cooks is open by then, there is a risk it could be disrupted again. or we end up in 2 week quarantine. Here in NZ everything is basically open again with no restriction, and the tourist stuff discounting to attract locals because their usual overseas customers are missing. Silver lining for us as things wont be crowded.
Weekend warrior, Peterson JP test pilot, Dolmar 7900 and Stihl MS310 saws and  the usual collection of power tools :)

Offline doc henderson

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Re: Just the Facts, the Crown virus.
« Reply #559 on: June 30, 2020, 08:29:55 PM »
so some meds are like a "sun screen" and can prevent a serious illness.  once you have fluid in you lungs and all the inflammation, it takes time to clear.  so if you can prevent this in the first place, folks do well.  so individual cases.  all blood donors are now tested, and if positive, will be notified to donate plasma for others, and it will theoretically help, but not much data yet.  anecdotally maybe helps late in the disease.  the anti-viral med will help reduce reproduction and spread.  it needs to be early, like sun screen, to prevent the inflammation.  just like with asthma, after a few days of inflammation, the steroids help less, than at the beginning before all the cytokines and other inflammatory chemical are released. 
timberking B 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor 12 volt tarp motor


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