Lumber prices too high

[Andries]

. . . Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. . . . 

Doubt that. 
Meat packing plants have super crowded working conditions and have maintained production numbers.
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential  projects.
The deep pockets on Bay St and Wall St. are choking back production to goose the prices/profits. 
Watch for prices on hardwoods and softwoods to decline, when our world finds a new normal, post vaccinations and restrictions. 
Keep on milling all you sawyers out there!

[Ed_K]

 1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.

[g_man]

Yesterday a neighbor asked me if we could go over to Home Despot in my pick up to get a sheet of plywood. Well he bought one sheet of 1/2" fir CDX for $52.00. I couldn't believe it. I would have walked out - talk about prices to high. I'm a little out of touch, maybe even a lot,  but that seems ridiculous.

gg

[g_man]

1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.

Is that lumber or logs Ed ??
gg

[SwampDonkey]

The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential  projects.

But where is the money coming from? There is a lot of household debt out there, a lot. With job losses and uncertainty out there. You've go to have a real stable job to get a mortgage. The guy working 40 hrs for $10/hr at a processing plant (meat or veggies) isn't getting a mortgage and certainly could never pay for a new construction. Where were they in the good times? Are these the same people buying stock high and selling low? No wonder the money people walk around with big smiles on their faces. Your CERB cheque in Canada or your COVID cheque in the USA isn't going to buy a house. If that is the case it's going to all fall down.

[Andries]

The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential  projects.

 . . . .  But where is the money coming from? . . . . 

SD; 
New housing starts are super high here in the Eastern Prairies. 
The real estate market is red hot. 
All of the businesses that serve the "you're staying put" status of the virus lockdowns ( from home renovations to bicycles to camping trailers ) are firing on all pistons. 
Interest rates are super low and look like they're going to stay that way for a while.
Un-employment is low.
On the flip side;
Restraunts are closed or gone broke.
The airlines are whining for bailouts from the taxpayer.
Tourism is at a standstill.
The sports world is stutter starting and trying to adjust.
.
The pandemic has created new winners and losers - the money has moved from one to the other.

[stavebuyer]

The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential  projects.

. . . .  But where is the money coming from? . . . .

SD;
New housing starts are super high here in the Eastern Prairies.
The real estate market is red hot.
All of the businesses that serve the "you're staying put" status of the virus lockdowns ( from home renovations to bicycles to camping trailers ) are firing on all pistons.
Interest rates are super low and look like they're going to stay that way for a while.
Un-employment is low.
On the flip side;
Restraunts are closed or gone broke.
The airlines are whining for bailouts from the taxpayer.
Tourism is at a standstill.
The sports world is stutter starting and trying to adjust.
.
The pandemic has created new winners and losers - the money has moved from one to the other.

I agree 100% about the pandemic winners and losers but think its only a fleeting reallocation.

[Ed_K]

 That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to .

[nativewolf]

Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good).  This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.  

I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week.  That gets expensive real fast.  

So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA.  That's a bit of money.  Just about what govt is going to spend here this year.  All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated.   So, I'd expect it to go on a while.

@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.

[g_man]

That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to .

That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade SPF here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg

[stavebuyer]

Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good).  This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.  

I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week.  That gets expensive real fast.  

So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA.  That's a bit of money.  Just about what govt is going to spend here this year.  All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated.   So, I'd expect it to go on a while.

@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.

Only we didn't really "save". The government printed it and passed it out so we could deposit it; more less proving that it was either unneeded or unwisely distributed.

[PoginyHill]

Pandemic hasn't impacted loggers or truckers that much - nor landowners wanting to sell stumpage. Supply of logs hasn't been impacted much. Mills can't simply add a shift or capacity overnight. They rely mostly on overtime - so mill capacity hasn't increased much. But demand for finished products has skyrocketed. When people can't do cruises, travel, or vacations, they have been spending their extra money on home improvements and, evidently, new houses. I think that explains why the supply/demand thing has driven up lumber/plywood prices, but not logs.

[g_man]

That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to .

That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade S/P logs here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg

[mike_belben]

Its all a house of cards.  The next recession will make 09 look like a warmup. 

[nativewolf]

Some of you may find this interesting, research paper from Deloitte discussing inflation and federal reserve policy.  

Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2020 | Deloitte Insights

The Fed is legally required to create full employment and keep prices stable- one thing they can do to create full employment is make sure money is everywhere to create jobs.   If congress wanted to change the mandate of the Fed they could, they don't even discuss changing it (not during 2007/08 housing bust and not now). 

@stavebuyer This paper gives a really good overview of the issues facing the fed.  Also, why the vaccine is so important if one is concerned about monetary policy.  For those concerned with coming inflation it is a good read, helps to understand the drivers.

[g_man]

That was lumber prices g-man. I keep an eye on the rich people down in N.Y. to see what their up to .

That's a world I don't understand. I watch local lumber prices go up and down but for a decade S/F logs here has been $300 +/_ a little except for one blip a couple winters ago when it went almost to $400 for a couple months.
gg

[Claybraker]

Household debt is at recent lows, people have banked a bunch of money (which is good).  This goes to show that if you cut out sports and eating out all the time and shopping to be shopping that people can actually save money.  

I like to go out to eat once in a while but am generally shocked by how many people seem to eat out 2-4 days a week.  That gets expensive real fast.  

So, we'll come out of the pandemic with consumers having saved on the order of $2 trillion in the USA.  That's a bit of money.  Just about what govt is going to spend here this year.  All in all I'd say that the govt is getting ready to spend more than we need (should have been done last year to help the people really needing it) just as we are going to be nearly all vaccinated.   So, I'd expect it to go on a while.

@wudman said a huge pine mill would open on the border of VA/NC, would not surprise me to see some other mothballed facilities reopen but I doubt much new construction.

Household net worth increased $6.9 trillion in Q4. Real unemployment is close to 10%. This recovery will look much like the last one. K shaped. Hotel occupancy is down 26.7% from the same week in 2019. Still a lot of slack in the economy before inflation starts to appear.

[mike_belben]

With starter homes costing 400k, pickups at 90k and $16 2x6s i cant believe anyone that tells me homeowners are in less debt.  Just like i cant even listen to anyone telling me that inflation is 2 percent.  Its clear im speaking to the unquestioningly faithful.  Fake news lovers. 

[SwampDonkey]

According to other sources Q4 of 2020 in the US, the household debt was $14.6 trillion and the average debt was $145,00 per household. Mortgage debt $10 T. So there must be a lot of high rollers in there about to implode.   Your government isn't giving out that kind of money. The piper will be a calling. It don't add up to prosperity, more like Sodom and Gomorrah.

[Claybraker]

According to other sources Q4 of 2020 in the US, the household debt was $14.6 trillion and the average debt was $145,00 per household. Mortgage debt $10 T. So there must be a lot of high rollers in there about to implode.  Your government isn't giving out that kind of money. The piper will be a calling. It don't add up to prosperity, more like Sodom and Gomorrah.

Those numbers sound about right according to the Fed.  It's going to be very much a K shaped recovery. It's already well underway.  The Equity market has been the biggest change.
The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $130.2 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $4.9 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.9 trillion

The Fed - Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 - Current Release