To gamble (start in march 2021) or gamble to wait till next year

Sedgehammer · February 27, 2021, 08:45:52 AM

Quote from: Cedarman on February 27, 2021, 07:11:55 AM
Ages ago when Ross Perot was running for president, he would say "Just do it". I was on the borderline of building a mill, buying several hundred thousand dollars of mill equipment and also building a house. Going 1/2 million in debt. I had put it off for several years waiting for the right time. Ross gave me the incentive to dive in. It was nerve wracking for many years. Still buying stuff. Should be out of debt in 3 months. What I did is not for everybody. If I had not listened to Ross, I would not have what I have today.
(The other day my little granddaughter asked me to sound like a frog. I asked her why. She said her mom told that when I croaked we would get all your money)

Watch the lumber trends, see what it does for a few months. If no change, make the decision to wait more or dive in.
The worst that happens is that you will have spent more money than if you waited. If you can afford that money, then you have your answer. If you dive in and prices go down, do not grieve over it.

Thanks for the reply!

I don't really have an issue with debt that makes one money. I do have an issue with mortgage debt, especially in these times. I had built a half a million dollar home back in 98. Almost lost it. Not again.

Lil kids and their honesty..... that's sad, but you know your kids. As of right now, 2 of mine won't get a thing and I sleep well at night with that.

If I jump, I have a thought to buy everything at once, so I have it. I could though buy the metal posts, weld that up, as that will take a while, then it could even sit if need be. Still waiting on the engineer on exactly what is needed. Then I'll send that out for quotes.

farmfromkansas · February 28, 2021, 11:49:32 AM

Things could change quickly if the stock market continues to go down. Friday the dow dropped by 4 hundred something, and the grain markets and cattle dropped as well. Expect all the markets would follow, as that is the way it works. And a stock market crash is over due. Having money and being in the market when everyone else is running away is being in the right place at the right time.

SwampDonkey · February 28, 2021, 04:42:37 PM

Buy low and sell high is where the money is. ;D

Hilltop366 · February 28, 2021, 07:45:05 PM

One thing that I think has been the biggest contributor to the high material prices is covid, people working from home has freed up time and people not traveling/vacationing has freed up money so might as well stay home and do some renovations combine that with supply interruptions and companies willing to charge all the public are willing to pay.

When (or if) the public are not willing to pay and the supply improves the prices should fall.

Southside · February 28, 2021, 09:10:24 PM

Now would be a good time to build a SYP mega mill, automated, chip-n-saw. Don't have to worry about increasing log prices due to the supply side, but the downside will be energy. Costs, carbon penalty issues, etc. I don't think you will see many breaking ground of that caliber until some of those issues find a direction.