Who says the price of Lumber is going down

[widetrackman]

Went to Home Depot couple hours ago to get a Saw. Yikes, 2x4x8 Spruce Prem. $7.35 and 85% would at best grade #2. 2x6x8 Spruce not much better $14 and change. Yea, and I can't get a wack of logs across the bottom with all the rain :(

[taylorsmissbeehaven]

Its a bit out of control! The lumber prices seem like they begin to drop, but then go right back up. Im getting ready to build a house and I am very worried.....We shall see where all this goes. Im afraid everyone's gonna forget about lumber if gas prices rise like the news says they will. Hold on to your hat it could be a bumpy ride. Brian

[YellowHammer]

I've never said, and I don't see it, and I order loads of hardwood every week.  The price has shot up, and although it stabilized and even slightly dropped for a few months, it is climbing fast again.  White oak is second only to walnut in wholesale prices, poplar is now more expensive than red oak, and mahogany is now cheaper than some domestic species.  I know one company who has 7 shipping container loads of wood in Belgium that is not being shipped, because the shipper knows it will not get unloaded in the US in a timely manner, so they are not even sending it.  

Another company that says they are paying 5 times the amount for shipping on their product, and says to add about $1.25 per bdft to cover any purchases to cover shipping on exotics.  So the math is easy, a $5 per bdft species of wood instantly goes to $6.25 with shipping.

I am trying to help local businesses who can't get high grade plywood, and I have connections so that I can get it for now, and it is $120 per sheet, retail, and I encourage them to find it elsewhere (I'm not a plywood dealer), and they still need me to get it, so I help them out.  

[Nebraska]

Crappy 2x4x8 Menard's last night 8.29$

[Walnut Beast]

Crappy 2x4x8 Menard's last night 8.29$

Wow!

[WDH]

Here is what hardwood has done.



 

[KWood255]

Economy grade 2x4x8's here in Northern Ontario are $10.49 plus tax. $11.85 total. 

[Don P]

The local building supply said he is getting hit by some fuel surcharges, more each week. That will cut down on what he can pull in from where. It's not cost effective to chase a deal if a surcharge eats it. The ground has shifted so many times recently I can't keep up with whether I'm a hero or a zero. Brian, you have a mill and native lumber law in NC, one possible sweat equity option. Keep in mind, construction now is likely all "under water", manage your risk.

[mike_belben]

The price is going to stay high.  The paychecks are soon to be going down.  Dont take the low interest bait and saddle yourselves with 10 or 30 years of YOLO debt just before a layoff next year.

[stavebuyer]

Maple is trending up. Red Oak and Poplar continue heading south. White Oak took its first "-" this week as well and thats before any of the Ukraine news kicked in. Yeah, they will still need to finish the houses started but I don't see the market headed anywhere but south from here. Fuel prices, inflation and interest rates will ripple through sucking up dollars. Less dollars to drive prices and more money sucked out for essentials will reduce demand and price pressure.

It takes about 2 years for an up cycle to build and 30 days to bust. Thats without considering most the Hardwood goes to China. All the sanctions surrounding Ukraine will certainly disrupt the gobal status quo. Sell while you can.

Add in the "reality check" that the new 401K millionaires building all the McMansions in the burbs who log in and see they don't have near the "wealth" they had last week will rain on the parade. 

[taylorsmissbeehaven]

Thanks for the words of encouragement DonP! We cleared about an acre and a half I kept every log. What doesnt make lumber will make firewood.  Doesnt look like things will get better in the near future. With all thats going on in the world right now we just have to be thankful for the things we have, Brian

[etd66ss]

Well, as per usual oil skyrockets due to a war abroad, other commodities to follow.

Lumber probably isn't going down anytime soon.

I was finally ready to build a house then COVID hit. Will likely put off my plans for at least 3 years.

[SawyerTed]

My son and daughter-in-law may never move out of my house at this rate!

[stavebuyer]

Today's lumber contract is 1277mbf. Aug contract today is trading at 950mbf. 

[YellowHammer]

That would be nice for the prices to drop, but I sure didn't see it in the wood I bought today.  Its really going to require a housing slowdown, but at least here in Huntsville, it still super hot.  As I mentioned, I'm paying almost twice as much for walnut, @$9.70 as for mahogany @$5.50.  Poplar is still sky-high due to plywood prices being high, and white oak here is crazy high.

 

[SawyerTed]

If y'all saw what the stave mill buyer bought from us as stave logs, I'm pretty sure the white oak market will remain  "crazy high."  We had a few logs clear two sides with some large knots and we still got more than $1k/Mbft.  I thought they were firewood but he bought them as barrel top staves. 

[logbyr]

I've bot veneer logs for over 30 years and never have seen solid wood products out compete the slicer market for logs like it is today.    3sc slicer logs in walnut and wo are virtually impossible for me to source now.    Suppliers think hard on whether to allow scale deductions for defects in 4sc logs.   The low end rotary maple market is pretty much a thing of the past.
Good news for our industry is more walnut and wo  logs are now produced here in the states.  The stave market is taking white oak logs away from everyone but its all domestic mfg.  The maple lumber market is being driven by domestic usage.   
The global shipping issues are forcing people to shorten supply chains as shipping times explode.
Since first of year I've seen 2 of my container haulers exit all or part of the business.  My freight forwarder left for greener pastures.
Inland freight has almost doubled in last 3 years.    Freight to Far East has tripled to quadrupled in 2 years.   Dont get me started on logistical nightmares with ports.   One large trucking co who is exiting business told me he paid $650,000 in container demurge fees over last 2 years.   Things are changing out there. 
Lots of headwinds to exports.    

[longtime lurker]

Here is still booming, lead times still blown out too.

Input costs are going through the roof faster though, fuel in particular. And as the Ukraine business heats up fuel prices will skyrocket is what I keep hearing.

One of the major banks lifted interest rates today, rest of them will follow right smartly.

Been a couple of major construction companies go into receivership since Christmas, national players. Can't swallow costs anymore is what I heard. And the mid sized regional guys I talk to are all under pressure.

The Chinese domestic housing market is teetering on the brink of collapse - there's far more than just Evergrande involved. That's a bit of a wildcard because the international financial markets have had time to factor that in but it's got Lehman Brothers type consequences for the global economy if it gets out of hand. Unlike a lot of the economics pundits I remain unconvinced that the Chinese government sees a global financial crisis as a bad thing given that most western nations are vulnerable economically post COVID.

I'm giving it 6 months, then I foresee a big domestic slowdown. The boom here was fuelled by lockdowns and stimulus packages and one has ended and the other is winding up. Inflationary pressure and interest rate rises will reduce spending power without wages growth...

We live in interesting times

[moodnacreek]

I suggest no one read those 2 posts  just put your head down and keep working.

[Percy]

Its crazy here too in northern BC. Seems the higher the price, the more they want it.....For spruce planks (3x10), a commercial customer offered me a 50% bonus if I could jump the que for him......Im already too busy for a 67 yearold coffin dodger.....I used to dream about situations such as this....just hope it dont turn into a nightmare

[Southside]

I suggest no one read those 2 posts just put your head down and keep working.

I think everyone needs to read them to avoid having their head chopped off as a result of not seeing the blade came off the saw. 

[Peter Drouin]

.....Im already too busy for a 67 yearold coffin dodger....

:D :D :D :D good one, I'm 67 too and have more work than I want.
Have to have time for the Hot Rod.  ;)

[WDH]

I am 68 and can work 12 hours a day 7 days a week easy if I don't manage things well.  All work and no play can lead to a hectic but dull life and that does not bother the customers at all. 

[mike_belben]

I like hard work, but there surely is more to life.

[YellowHammer]

Since I buy both logs and lumber, I'm really balancing buying and purchasing too much inventory because it's hard to get, and getting too much inventory and getting stuck with loads of wood if the price drops.  However, I buy exotics from 4 sources, domestic from 4 other sources and logs as well, so I get a lot of feedback and rumors as well as info from publications.  There is beginning to be a slowdown in "casual" buying, but that's normal in springtime, but the commercial guys who buy from me are not slowing down, and in fact picking up because they "can't find it anywhere else."  Even simple stupid stuff like eastern white pine, soft maple, poplar, etc I can only get in certain lengths where I used to get it any way I wanted it.  I'm even starting to commission selling high grade plywood, because people are telling me "they can't find it."  

When I called up the owner of the second largest lumber distributor in the southeast and asked for 8/4 soft maple two days ago, the answer I got was "I have one pack, 10 feet long, that's it.  Do you want it."  Yes, of course I want it, I'm out, and I didn't even ask the price.  I don't really care, I can't sell it if I don't have it, and I need it because I'm sold out.  I have customers needing it.  I had already called up 2 other of my suppliers, and they are out.  So it's coming next week.  I saw the invoice, and yes, it had gone up a little since last time I bought.  Oh well, I'll have it sold in a couple weeks and that will give me time to look for more.

The market has to blow, things are getting too high, I can hear the train coming, but I don't see the headlights yet.