more mill closings

[doc henderson]

should increase business for him, I would guess.

[Resonator]

One of my customers worked for years for a company that built and maintained gas stations. He said it was common for a big convenience store company to walk in and write a check on the spot to the small mom and pop businesses and buy them out. That check being $1.2 million or more that they could cash THAT DAY. 
I can see with some mills selling out, that may be the most profitable business decision where real estate prices are sky high. Especially if you have older equipment, buildings, or management wanting to retire.

[SwampDonkey]

Gravel went up about $30 a load this year. But my cement bill for the shop was about the same as 5 years go. $45 less actually. Depends on where you are. Up here gravel isn't scarce any steep sloped hill is full of it. So prices creep up a lot slower. Woods ground doesn't seem to go up much around here because most lots have no mature timber, 40 years old or younger mostly. Aspen and some dominant fir might be the size of telephone poles, but nothing else is.

[YellowHammer]

Concrete here is over $200 per yard.  Used to be $60. 

Yes, our sales are slowing, the customers are scared as all get out and are only buying what they need.  Prices of everythng are going up, including the price of high grade lumber.  Veneer walnut logs are $5 per bdft here, I just bought about $20K in the last month or two, and I have two customers asking for zero knot 8/4 walnut, no sapwood, and I just bought a pack of lumber for $8.90 per bdft because I'm out!  Yes, a pack or wood for $9K, but I should be able to sell it for $20K and with these two customers already lined up, will make my money back by next week, and the rest should be profit.

Basically, here, the low grade is getting to be really low grade, nobody wants it, I can't move it and the high grade is getting extremely hard to find, and the price is high.  If I can't find the logs, I'm having trouble finding the lumber.  I have 53 species now, and I have to buy stuff I can't make, and it took me three weeks to get an order of 8/4 high grade, C and D grade KD white pine shipped by truck from Maine.  I used to be able get it no trouble and now it takes me three weeks??  I don't have white pine in this area so can't buy logs.  There may be some prices of wood going down, but I'm not seeing it in high grade simply because the producers are drying up, the customers still must have some of it, and I'm about the only game in town.  Another local hardwood competitor just shut down their walk in retail sales a couple weeks ago and their wood was priced higher than mine, but a lower grade..

Supply and demand, and people are running scared. But my insurance keeps skyrocketing, my other costs also, I could easily see mills shutting down and selling out.  Right now my property is worth way more than my operation but I'm not selling my home place.  Well, $5 million and yes, maybe.  I'll throw in the sawmill with the land.

[doc henderson]

it is funny.  we have tons of sand, but no gravel.  sand is cheap, rock not so much.  last concrete I bought was 110 a yard a few years back.  we are paying the freight on the rock from 2 hours away in the flint hills.

[dustintheblood]

Super bad everywhere.  Just about everyone is sitting on the sidelines waiting for lower interest rates.  Darwin is king right now

[Peter Drouin]

I had some ask If I want to sell my land. They don't care about the sawmill. I can get good $$$ for it. But, where am I going to go? I did get some customers from a sawmill that burned down 30 miles from me.

[Ianab]

It's a head scratcher, where the profits can be had. Same facilities, often old dinosaurs. Same markets.

Often it's the debt they are carrying that makes the difference. At least between still making a small profit even in the lean times, or building up even more debt until the bank gets nervous. All it takes is for interest rates to spike upward, which they have in recent years, and that nice black spreadsheet the accountant keeps starts looking red. 

[ArkansasOaks]

Concrete in Alabama seems to be much higher than in AR/MO. We are looking closer to 150/yd give or take some for 3.5kpsi concrete before additives. Are you getting a high break strength?

[YellowHammer]

Yes, I always add fiber and extra cement. I haven't seen $150 per yard in quite some time!  The fiber was supposed to add $10 per yard and the extra Portland cement was another few bucks, I'm not sure.  I poured my slab several months ago, last winter, so they added some catalyst.  Either way, it was $200 per yard by the truckload.  It was brutal, especially since they didn't add enough catalyst and I had to run my big diesel heaters to try to get it to cure.  That was the most expensive slab I've ever had done.     

The good news is that I have my own gravel pits here on the property for river rock, but it is unsorted.  However, it is saving me a ton of money right now.

     
 

[Larry]

Here in NW Arkansas its been around $150 but at times impossible to get. Walmart has been building a new corporate campus for a couple of years and they had every concrete truck in the area running 24-7.

Seeing some cross laminated timber (CLT) construction. Right now more expensive than steel and concrete but if it takes off there will be a big demand for SYP.

[SwampDonkey]

They've never spiked here, maybe up to 5%-6% from near nothing. The 1980's with 18% interest makes it look quite manageable. Banks still don't offer a consistent saving account interest, they give it to you short term and have you open a new account, then it plummets in 6 months. I don't know what is up with that, just pay it on the existing account. Is their some kind of government scheme they've hatched to make money? Who knows. There are some folks better at money management than others. But working with the same capital and markets deals the same cards. Being short term seems to be where the money is.

Meanwhile postage rates went up 8% this year and slated to rise 25% next January. It's getting ridiculous. All my packages now come 3rd party. FedEx used to hand off parcels to Canada Post, now they come to the door.

[nativewolf]

Yes, I always add fiber and extra cement. I haven't seen $150 per yard in quite some time!  The fiber was supposed to add $10 per yard and the extra Portland cement was another few bucks, I'm not sure.  I poured my slab several months ago, last winter, so they added some catalyst.  Either way, it was $200 per yard by the truckload.  It was brutal, especially since they didn't add enough catalyst and I had to run my big diesel heaters to try to get it to cure.  That was the most expensive slab I've ever had done.   

The good news is that I have my own gravel pits here on the property for river rock, but it is unsorted.  However, it is saving me a ton of money right now.

   
 

Sounds like not much competition on the cement market there?

[WhitePineJunky]

Gravel went up about $30 a load this year. But my cement bill for the shop was about the same as 5 years go. $45 less actually. Depends on where you are. Up here gravel isn't scarce any steep sloped hill is full of it. So prices creep up a lot slower. Woods ground doesn't seem to go up much around here because most lots have no mature timber, 40 years old or younger mostly. Aspen and some dominant fir might be the size of telephone poles, but nothing else is.

Went up 25$ a load here 150

[customsawyer]

Keep in mind the post I made earlier about them selling the wood at $310.00/M. It is kiln dried and planed. Also keep in mind that they are sawing 1 9/16"x3 5/8" or so and selling it as a 2x4. So after you take into account that they are selling 3.5bf and getting to call it 5.33bf then the numbers are a little different. They are getting around $420.00/M for the actual wood they are cutting. I still think it's to cheap but it is what it is. Just wanted to point this out. I know I was contacted to do some resaw work for West Fraser here in Dudley, GA. and all of the work was based off of 5.33 bf for their 2x4.

[SwampDonkey]

Also keep in mind there is recovery of clean planer chips and clean sawdust for the pulp market. That's how mills run up this way and waste wood is pelletized at some mills here.

[Peter Drouin]

It's still too cheap, even when selling air. I get more than that just for cutting customer's logs. I don't charge for air, I'm Just too honest.

Old saying; liars can figure but figures don't lie.

[barbender]

Jake, I didn't realize that they were figuring 5.33 on their 2x4's. I don't know what they actually saw their boards at, but I'd bet it is only a 1/4" over finished dimensions. 

[Peter Drouin]

Just the way the industry is setup.

[SwampDonkey]

Hard to get fasteners and brackets to fit the framing and such if the pieces are not those reduced dimensions.

[Peter Drouin]

They have them. Just get the ones for LVLs.  

[customsawyer]

Barbender they don't even go a 1/4" over. I think it's a 1/16" on thickness and 1/8" on width. They are also only drying to get it below 20 percent moisture. Normally around 18 or 19 percent. Most of them run what is called continuous kilns and the wood is dried in about 24 hours. The West Fraser mill in Dudley, GA. is all in a climate controlled building. The only part outside is where the logs are. Once the log hits the trough then it's inside. The log will blow through the mill faster than you can walk, and will be stacked on sticks before you can walk to the other end. It is automated and optimized. Of course they spent over 240 million to put that mill in. The Inerfor mill in Perry, GA. is supposed to be even faster. All of the lumber is graded to SPIB standards. Which don't set the bar very high.
The prices I spit out earlier is for #2 lumber. They get a little better for Prime.

[SwampDonkey]

They have them. Just get the ones for LVLs.  

Not available at any hardware store around here. Be special order as LVL use is used minimally here. Used as carrying beam wood in modern truss work in homes. I have 2 of them beams in the house. Not building an entire house with it.

[barbender]

 Jake, whatever their overage is (actually it would be underage in this case, wouldn't it?😊) I bet they have it figured in 1/64 increments, right to a science. A small measurement makes a massive financial difference with the volume those monster mills are producing.

[Ianab]

Also keep in mind there is recovery of clean planer chips and clean sawdust for the pulp market. That's how mills run up this way and waste wood is pelletized at some mills here.

Similar here. I reckon the only thing that's not used is the pine scent, and if they could bottle and sell that, they would. At the smaller local mill, the bark goes for landscaping, the sawdust and planer shavings as animal bedding, the slab wood as firewood. (it's not great firewood, but it's cheap and they drop it off by the truckload, so it all gets sold. Those byproducts aren't making any huge profit, but it's a few more $ for each log they process, and that can be the difference between making a profit and a loss. 

But several medium sized mills have closed around the country in the last few weeks. High wholesale electricity prices over Winter have been blamed as the last straw. The largest mills have co-gen plants, burning their waste wood, so haven't been affected, or maybe are even making a profit by selling excess generation back to the grid at high demand times?