Log Prices?

[Southside]

Well, concentrating the hardwood industry into mega giant mills that have the capital to automate won't improve forest quality, logging opportunity, product quality, or stumpage prices to landowners.  Just look at the pine industry in the south. 

More small and mid sized operations would accomplish those goals, through the nature of competition, but those mills can't automate and can't find employees who will show up to work and give a Dang. 

As far as Tesla at scale - there are not many left around these days because they mostly burned up - but for a while recessed, wall mounted toasters were a thing too.  Time will tell.  I see Michigan has mandated that their entire fleet of state owned vehicles will be electric by 2040 with all passenger vehicles being EV's in 6 years.  I can't wait to see EV plow trucks in the UP trying to clear a road so a Trooper can get through on New Years Eve.  It's going to be epic, or it just won't happen.

[ehp]

Up north of me its not very good to be a logger , everything has switched to mech logging from hand cut  but the log value has not go up at all but the logging cost has went way up , Sure the machines produce a lot more buy the cost of the machines is crazy . 1 guy I know has 7 machines , 2 track cutters, 2 grapple skidders , hoe,  slasher and a dozer plus his log trucks . At the end of last winter when everything was paid the amount he had left was less than what I made working by myself and he was really thinking about pulling the plug cause I do ok but I donot make big money so why was he sticking his neck out that bad. I see more and more bush jobs coming up and the dead line date comes and passes with out a single bid . If your the kind of logger jumping around from mill to mill cause you gained $10/1000 on the last job and you phone the mill you left to come by your logs your in for a rude remark cause that mill no longer wants your logs . It's going to be quite tough for abit but most likely by next winter things should start picking up to where most guys can make money to stay a float and pay for their family cause for me that is the reason I get out of bed is to help my family live

[Southside]

Are those guys chasing trees to cut?  Around here you would have two grapples to one cutter and the skidders would be working to keep up. 

[shaneyho]

One of the reasons for the decline in logging employment is the increasing use of mechanized logging equipment, which reduces the need for manual labor

[barbender]

 Yes, but loggers can barely find guys to put in the seats of the machines. When compared across the board with pension and benefits, a job in the woods pays less than half of a union construction job with the same skill set. Wages are simply not competitive in the woods for the available labor pool. Do you think if we went back to an army of cable skidders in northern MN, you'd be able to find enough guys to set chokers or run chainsaws bucking on the landing?

[SwampDonkey]

Been hard to get cutters for at least 20 years, but we cut mostly pulp, so the pay ain't that great. Mills with crown licenses chased skidders off their licenses anyway, told them they have to go mechanical because the price wasn't going to get any better and the big 'safety' push. Most guys I know with skidders are working by themselves or with a family member or friend. The farmer across the road bought a used skidder last fall. He hired a guy to cut wood. That lasted about 6 weeks, the skidder has never moved since. I don't think more than 4 loads of wood moved. I've never seen the farmer cut wood much himself, hasn't got much land anyway. Dad farmed 5 times as much and cut wood to, only had one guy working and later I cut on the yard when I was older. Dad cut huge rock maple all by himself one winter, that all went into investments because interest was high then, like 18%. That wasn't pulpwood. It was used for furniture locally. Of course the tops were firewood. It grew on nice loam ground. A lot of ash there to. The reason why the boomers around here had it good cut'n, was the old timers never cut much wood, never clear cut. Them days are no more, she's all been cut once and even twice on many tracts.

[ehp]

SS, I replied to your question but guess my reply got sent to outer space , The man was doing select cuts so that slows you down a lot , Around here Im sure I can fall a tree faster with a saw than a cutter could cause of the size of the trees plus alot of moving for a cutter to come from 3 sides and not touch the other tree thats 2 feet away on both sides

[Firewoodjoe]

We have to be mechanical logging. We dont have much choice. If and I mean if you can find someone to run saw for even 4 days a week he couldn't produce/generate enough money to pay for the cost let alone a profit for the company. I don't know if many people realize what comp cost on a hand cutter but the last I checked here it was $42 a 100. So a $4000 per month wage the company has to pay and additional $1680 in comp. Than the saws and gas. A harvester actually gets to where it's about a wash in cost. And the owner has a lot less headache knowing no one is in danger and he dont have to listen to a whining employee. Maybe that last part is a lot of my own opinion 😂

[Firewoodjoe]

Finding employees isnt hard. They all want to be a logger!  As long as they have a cool company truck, operator a machine they think they're good at with ac and Bluetooth. Work 8 hours no holidays full benefits and a ball cap and boots just dirty enough to look the part.

[stavebuyer]

Last time whiskey sales dropped was in 2008.



https://robbreport.com/food-drink/spirits/jack-daniels-whiskey-sales-dropping-1235441843/

[ehp]

I hope WO holds good cause I have walked some fairly good big stuff the last 2 days if price holds should go this winter , some pretty big RO as well, well for me there big as when the stumps get close to 6 ft I call them big so we will see , Move in the morning to mainly WP and HM cut, Hard maple has to go this winter as potatoes are being planted in the fields this coming year

[stavebuyer]

Hard Maple lumber, while still down from its recent peak, has been advancing steadily.

[nativewolf]

Rumor on the interwebs is that Christmas Eve is AWP last day operating.  Not sure how many mills get snapped up by Baillie or Northwest.  AWP did 200 million bdft a year.  That's a lot capacity and a lot of shaking out.  They also ran the inland port of VA log yard (which took logs for anyone, Northwest ran this before 2018 when they went under and reorganized).

[Firewoodjoe]

Northwest closed a mill here a few months ago.

[stavebuyer]

They are also one of the largest producer of sawn ties, and the majority source of 7x8 ties. For some odd reason 7x8 worked in their scheme of things and make sense to nobody else.

The reality here has been whenever a mill closes it doesn't get re-opened. Any lumber share is mostly gobbled up by upgrades at other mills. Yeah collectively 250 mmbf is a big number, but divided by 10 or however many mills, a 20-30mmbf mill is chump change for a modern grade mill and if in need of major upgrades no prize asset to pursue.

[nativewolf]

Stavebuyer to your point Baillie had upgraded the mill in Everett to handle 100k feet a day, all automated now.  They'll pull some of the capacity from the northern AWP mills.  Still plenty of mills in WV, just seems that's going to hurt a bit in WV, especially the counties that ran schools from timber harvests. 

So who uses 7x8 ties?  That was a new one to me. 

[stavebuyer]

They use 7x8 in main lines just like 7x9. Cheaper so it cost averages the cost per down for the RR. Trouble is they changed the wane allowance to no wane on 7x8s and allow up to an inch on 7x9's so any log that will saw a 4 square edge 7x8 will also make an allowable 7x9 with wane. With a 7x9 at $40 makes zero sense to take a board and the chase the lower priced 7x8 unless your sawing FAS Walnut into crossties. Koppers and Stella will both buy all the 7x8s you care to make.

[nativewolf]

Well today two fairly senior folks told me they think AWP is inking a deal with a buyer. We'll see.

Might see some whiteboard pulp mill closures early next year, Rock is selling to Smurfit and Smurfit doesn't want them and is trying to flip them (maybe to IP).  We'll see but it could be mill closure circus again next year.

[ehp]

There is sure a lot of moving going on , I feel safe for this winter but next summer I'm not so sure

[jcbrotz]

anyone have hardwood prices for Pennsylvania/New York cherry walnut and oak specifically

[ehp]

I started cutting better timber on Monday, nothing great but not bad either and I can say I'm very happy with the log prices I got and I hope they stay there as I got some pretty nice timber to cut soon,

[ehp]

HM = is paying the same as the last 2 years
SM, and lower grade stuff like aspen, beech, hickory is all paying the same as well
RO= is up $50/1000
WO= is the same as last winter which is the highest its ever been here
WP= is paying the same which is very good here
Walnut= I have not cut much of it yet but will be in the new year as one job is all walnut if we do cut it

[ehp]

Started marking a white oak bush tonight and will finish it in the morning , the white oak is in trouble pretty bad in my area , lots and lots of die back and its hitting hard . Lots of people were saving the white oak cause it is worth good money but they will loose out on alot of coin if they donot cut it soon

[ehp]

Another good week for this old bald has been , log prices are holding good to very good for me . But I seen a couple fairly large bush lots that were marked by foresters that closed yesterday and not a single bid on them . That is not a very good sign when the mills will not bid cause they bid on everything when times are good .

[locustoak]

What's causing the white oak dieback? Is there a desease in your area?