Smart Grid development and its implications

[Thehardway]

There has been talk for many years about "Smart Grid" development and not a whole lot has been done.  Most of our electrical infrastructure and transmission/distribution has remained unchanged since 1960 or so with just periodic maintenance and life-cycle replacement. 

As we approached 2000 and the Y2K scare, a lot more scrutiny was given to the grid.  That combined with a few rolling blackouts, deregulation, terrorist attacks and increased load made some folks in DC take a serious look at where power companies were taking us.   Shortly after, the CO2 folks reigned down terror on the power companies and if it hadn't been for a globalrecession causing a significant grid load reduction, we would have been in for huge price increases in electric rates.

As it stands right now, demand has dropped and power companies are scrambling to try to keep profits up while closing or up grading older coal based plants to meet new emissions standards, and bring cheaper, natural gas based generation on line.  The DOE has thrown a pretty large bone their way in the form of incentives to upgrade the grid and form a Smart Grid which is basically a networked system of generation, transmission, and distribution systems which can be dynamically re-routed, in real time, brought online, and self-heal, in the event of regional shortages, outages or regional disasters.

This is a double edged sword and has some pretty significant implications for future generations.  At first glance this sounds great.  No more rolling black-outs, cleaner power, upgraded distribution systems etc.  What's not to like.  That's all good.  Well, it's good until you look at the down side and the ugliness of profit motive combined with over-reaching government regulation.

Power companies are beholden to their stock holders to produce a profit.  What is currently taking place is they are using Smart Grid technology as a way to increase efficiency and leverage existing production capacity to meet increased demand without adding additional generation capacity.  They no longer need to locally produce extra power in case of demand increase as they can just re-route some from a less utilized sector to meet demand where it is needed in real time.  This all makes sense and it is good until you note that behind the scenes, it limits our ability to produce power when needed (our emergency generation capacity is being scaled back and demolished at a record rate)  It is akin to the cash for clunkers program or the "just in time" inventory system.  It increases corporate profit margins and meets government goals and regulations while leaving the consumer/citizen dangerously exposed with no backup and costly alternatives.

Once the Smart grid is in place and all of the old coal plants are demolished to meet carbon reduction goals and EPA standards, power companies will be passing surplus power like a hot potato on the grid tossing it to wherever it is needed.  Much of the power will be solar or wind derived which is great for the environment but undependable in adverse conditions.

So what happens if there is an economic boom and an increase in demand requires additional power across the nation?  Well, we haven't really got to that bridge.  What happens if we have a strategic terrorist attack on our badly exposed transmission line system?  Not sure about that either, what happens if a widespread natural disaster such as a hurricane sweeping up the east coast requires multiple nuclear power facilities to be temporarily shut down?  We'll just have to wait and see.

Those of you who have replaced your old copper bottom coffee pot on the gas stove with an automated brewing machine can probably relate to the frustration that becomes real when what used to be a simple thing in life is no longer available because of a technological malfunction in the new coffee maker.  There's not much fixin' to it.   It's not pretty.

The smart grid has some very attractive packaging and makes a mean cup of coffee when it works but what happens when it doesn't?  You get a lot of angry or worse yet dead people.

The sad thing about technology is how quick people forget how to live without it.

For all of you out there who feel you are preparing for hard days to come, try this little experiment.  Turn off your main breaker, then remove all gasoline, kerosene, and propane from use.  Live in this state confined to your home for one month.  At the end of a month, you will have a pretty good vision of what life in the US without electricity for a week, would be like (minus the looters and pillagers). 

All of our primary systems of sales, inventory, transportation, fuel delivery, communications, and life safety are dependent upon electricity.  Most backup systems cannot sustain for more than a week (backup generators run out of fuel and cannot be refueled, hoarding begins and shortages escalate out of control)

Do we really want to sacrifice current generating capacity for a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow?  Is it worth the risk?

[OntarioAl]

Thehardway
Very good read.
I am serviced up here by a public utility and it is just as screwed up.
The politicians have really messed the system with political interference. It will cost the tax payers of Ontario nearly a billion dollars for the cancellation of contracts (in an attempt to appease nimby's and win an election) to build 2 natural gas generating stations to replace the shut down coal plants, so now Ontario sources its surplus power requirements (Ohio valley coal plants among others) go figure.
Thanks
Al

[Ron Wenrich]

I'm not really up on the Smart Grid.  What's the alternative?   If I'm reading it right, you're saying to keep with the current system?  Why would they survive a natural or man made disaster any better?

I worked in Newark, NJ right after hurricane Sandy came through.  I was at a receiving yard for a lot that wood that came down.  There were areas of NJ without power for months.  If you live in a rural area, its something that you live with, knowing you might be the last one hooked up.  But, there wasn't large amounts of looting.  There were places that carried on business because of backup generators.  Fuel was shipped in from other areas, as were utility poles and the crews.  The basic support infrastructure is also in place to keep those outages at a minimum.  Those places recovered quickly, and things were up and running in a relatively short time.  In some cases it was days.  With a smart grid system in place, wouldn't they be able to wheel electricity to those areas quicker when local generation is down?

The problems that did come about with Sandy was that NJ has some anal laws about taking fuel over the state line.  They didn't lift those laws and I heard they were arresting people for getting fuel in PA and taking it to run their generators.  I wish we had a smart grid for government, but that's another discussion.

I think that you want to have as efficient of a delivery system as you can get.  That allows for the cheapest service that you can get.  Although giving investors a return on their investment sounds like greed, what's the alternative?  Government can give tax breaks for alternative energy production, but they can't deliver enough to satisfy the demand.  When the tax breaks go away, so does that part of the industry.  That means we have to rely on a dependable generation system.  Government is a pretty inefficient lot.

Your coffeepot argument is the same used against all new technology.  Should we still be using horses because it may be hard to get fuel for cars or trucks if there is a disaster?   Should we do away with all computerized systems because there may be a power outage?  You can't develop a system that is 100% foolproof.  No matter what the system is.

[BBTom]

I don't have any problem with the smart grid system.  I have problems with government intervention into how things are supposed to work.  Ohio Edison blew it with a nuke plant they built on Lake Erie and it was a financial disaster.  Our Public Utilities Commision of Ohio (PUCO) that is supposed to be in existence to protect the consumer, decided that the investors into Ohio Edison didn't need to take the hit, the consumers had to pay the bill for the bad management.  It seems that whenever the Government sticks its nose into anything, they do the opposite of what should be done. 

The real shame..... We keep electing the same ones again and again.... Are we really that stupid.

[Ron Wenrich]

The consumer paid for Three Mile Island.  Those costs got funneled to us.  Consumers always pay for everything. 

They have now come up with a consumer choice deal where we can go into the marketplace and buy our electricity from some provider.  Basically, the provider buys wholesale from the electric company, sells to us a little under what the local utility charges for retail, and skims the profits.  The electric company still does the billing.  If you look real hard, after the introductory discount, your bill goes higher than what the local utility charges.

But, it gets better.  I saw where the government wants to assign those that didn't sign up to some sort of provider.  For the service, the state will get $50 for each one they assign.  That comes out of the provider's pocket.  So much for choice, if the government eliminates the cheapest one.  I was with a provider that gave me about a $5-10 reduction.  Then I switched back to the local utility.  It's a lot easier than looking at a bunch of plans.

It's sort of like the long distance scam a decade ago.

[Thehardway]

Ron, I am not opposed to the Smart Grid or improving the efficiency of the generation, transmission, distribution or management.  I am opposed to the net result of the Smart grid being a reduction in net generation capacity.

I am not opposed to technology, I am not opposed to profit. 

When we developed airplanes, we did not get rid of cars, trains, or boats, even though in many cases flight was more efficient and quicker. Keeping all modes of transport drives each sector to become better and more advanced in order to compete.

Likewise, when fighter planes were developed we did not send all of our foot soldiers home.  Not all wars can be won in the air.

In VA we chose (or the politicians did for us) not to deregulate.  As a result, we do not have a choice in providers.  The areas are franchised and supervised by the State Corporation Commission.  There is no competition.

As for the hurricane disaster recovery, things in Newark area did get fixed pretty quick.  People in Point Pleasant did not fair quite so well.  I have a friend who lives there.  In September, there were still people without power and churches were still feeding people.  Many homes are hung in limbo and can neither be repaired or demolished due to a combination of FEMA regulations and local ordinances.  FEMA says all houses must be raised above the new flood plain by X number of feet.  Local government says houses cannot exceed a maximum height of X feet.  Homeowners have to lose the top floor of their house to comply.  there are still more than 1,000 people waiting to rebuild. More government bureaucracy.  Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina although large were still considered to be regional disasters. 

Profit motives and the ability to manage loads through Smart Grid type applications are what caused many of the outages to occur in Sandy.  Transformers and substations that were long overdue for replacement had not been replaced as they could mange loads and keep them longer than was recommended practice for max load capacity.  The result when inundated with water was catastrophic failure.  In some cases they knew failure was going to occur in advance, and they just turned the power off to avoid losses to energized equipment. 

The importation of fuel law has to do with fuel taxes.  The state wants to ensure that any fuel burned in the state pays fuel tax to the state.  More greed. 

Think past regional weather disasters to a strategic purposeful attack on our power grid.  Instead of neighborhood lines down, think about multiple High Voltage transmission line towers down in remote mountainous areas. This could be easily executed as they are not watched or secured.

The Smart Grid is being used as an alternative to grid hardening and development of micro-grids.  We are seeing a net reduction in production capacity for a country that is more dependent than ever on electricity.  This has a negative effect on safety, security and freedom.

[Part_Timer]

The Smart Grid is being used as an alternative to grid hardening and development of micro-grids.  We are seeing a net reduction in production capacity for a country that is more dependent than ever on electricity.  This has a negative effect on safety, security and freedom.

I agree, I don't believe that the majority of the general public understand just how fragile our electric infrastructure is. 
The smart grid is a very catchy name for something that is no more than a fancy computer controlled switching system that will allow faster routing of power from one place to another.  It's the energy equivalent of "just in time" parts procurement.   What it does not address is the physical components that make up the grid.
   
     One of the things I find most interesting is that our current grid is hardly capable of providing the power requirements we have today much less tomorrow.  Just think, less than 60 years ago a home had a 20 amp circuit that took care of all the electrical needs in the home.  Today most codes require a 200 amp circuit be installed.  Almost every TV, clock, stove, dvd player, electric hot water heater, computer, washing machine draw power while turned off.  Most businesses leave lighting and security cameras on 24-7 for security reasons.  Just think of what the power requirements for a home will be in another 20 years.  This is why the big push for energy reducing projects like CFL's and LED's.  There is just no way to realistically grow the grid to meet current demand.
     As to hardening the grid, people would be amazed to know that most large transformers are not on the shelf items at their local power company.  Large replacement transformers are stored around the country and trucked in to where needed.  There is not a replacement for every item, there is maybe one replacement for every 50-100.  It's just a numbers game, the odds are that you will never blow more than a couple of the larger transformers at any given time, but what if you do?
     5 years ago our substation transformer caught fire.  The power company brought in a temporary transformer and hooked us up but we had to reduce load by 2.2MW in order to be able to run the plant.  Fortunately for us we were able to do that.  The correct transformer was brought in 6 weeks later and installed.  Now imagine if the temporary was in use somewhere else or a residential transformer went out and they needed the temporary for that use.  Our mill would have been down for 6 weeks and we would have been out of business.
     When Katrina hit our mill was going through and upgrade and our deliveries on needed transformers and motors were pushed out 10 weeks because the demand for those types of items rose so fast that manufacturing could not keep up.  You can have the smartest grid in the world but mother nature can and will win every time. 
     Man made disasters are another issue, with the number of times the gov. has told us they defended off a cyber attack there are probably a hundred that they don't tell you about.  The smart grid will just make such kinds of issues more likely, just ask Target how secure, secure really is.

Cost's
    I'm in charge of incoming power here at the paper mill and have been for the last 15 years.  Because we are a 10MW consumer we have our own rep from AEP that stops in every few months to talk about both our needs as well as what is happening with our provider.  One of the items most people are not aware of is that the clean energy act will greatly increase cost to consumers along all rate structures.  Here at the mill we are looking at a 50-75% increase in our energy cost by 2018.  When you consider that our electric bill is $225,000 a month, that is a huge chunk of change.  These cost will be passed along to the consumer.  Residential in our area is expected to increase 40-60% in the same time frame.  Clean is expensive, that isn't good or bad it's just the way it is.
     I wonder how many people know the number of large businesses west of the rockies that have been shut down due to not being able to get enough power to run?  I can tell you of one paper mill for sure, our last GM came from a mill that had us shelve operations because they could not get reliable power service.  It unemployed 600 people.

Just my .02 on the subject I just hope it gets some folks to thinking.