US just slapped a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood

[Bandmill Bandit]

Actually there was no tariff applied to milk. The dairy control board up here changed some regulations and policies that made "ultrafiltered" milk produced and processed in Canada cheaper for the cheese processors to buy local. So the 150 ish million worth of that product simply had no market place to go to. And that 150 million ish is a tiny piece of the 50+ billion Wisconsin dairy industries massive over production even for its own available market.

I have been told by a local diary board member that i know quite well that the state of wisconsin has 30%+ more producing dairy cows than the entire country of Canada. Our average production per animal is marginally higher but not 30 percent higher.

Bottom line; once again Trump has no grasp of nor ability/desire to acquire the relevant and factual information on any thing that HAPPENS to catch his attention.

I HAD high hopes for his administration and would likely have voted for him if was an american!
He is an embarrassment to every American and a Buffoon to the rest of the world. He will single handed drive the USA to state lower than most 3rd world countries IF he doesn't destroy much of the country with his tyrannical handling of foreign policy. I have a hunch that unemployment in north America as a whole will surpass 30% and more during his tenure.   

I agree with much over what he would like to accomplish but his methods will ruin him and the country he says he "loves" along with more than a few other. I really feel sorry for Americans and for Canadians as your neighbors.

There are lot of things we need to get done as neighbors but Trump's methods are going to put us all  years behind where we are now.

NOTE; Most of my numbers come from the reuters feed to the Canadian press so not sure how accurate they actually are. Any one with more recent and accurate info is welcome to post it for every body.             

[Bigshooter]

Being part of the Canadian lumber industry my entire life I can say that this current trade agreement does not benefit us what so ever.

In the last 16 years on the west coast the forestry sector has lost over 30000 jobs. This is due to several factors including a very incompetent government and also sending raw logs to the US and overseas. You see in my province of BC a log that has been de-barked is considered a "manufactured product". After de-barking they are loaded on ships and head to China or other locations.
Raw log booms have been heading to the US now for decades.
Before all of this our sawmills were doing quite well, now there are only a few large operations running. For the most part its smaller operations of say 30-50 employees.

[nativewolf]

Bigshooter,  I agree..this is just silliness.  Only lost 3 times on the world court, just a matter of negotiating for nafta 2 I suppose.

[nativewolf]

In Canada the logger, truck driver, mill employee has free medical, good disability,etc even though they pay high tax that is a huge income boost.  Can you imagine how much healthier & wealthier you'd be if you had free medical, free PT, etc?  For most, if not all, loggers and sawmill employees it would be a big boost.

I'm glad you followed the "free healthcare" statement by "even though they pay high tax".

The only way I see that people or their dependents get free health care is to own no property, earn nothing and spend nothing so they do not pay any property, income, or sales tax.

I wonder if anyone in Canada can say they pay no tax of any kind?

Well Canadians pay only about 30% of what we pay for healthcare so high tax state or not it is effective in driving down costs...oh and they live longer so it is effective as a system.  It kills the libertarian in me but the US system is a failure and it is likely due to huge intervention by the govt over the last 30-40 years.

[paul case]

Bottom line; once again Trump has no grasp of nor ability/desire to acquire the relevant and factual information on any thing that HAPPENS to catch his attention.

I HAD high hopes for his administration and would likely have voted for him if was an american! 

I am not trying to throw a stick in a hornets nest, so dont take it that way.

We haven't had anyone who would run for the highest office in the land who had much integrity since I have been able to vote anyway. The alternative to Pres.Trump was the same old status quo who happened to be pro abortion. I cannot vote in favor of that.
For all of Pres.Trump's faults, he is one of the few presidents elected in the last 20 years who did anything the first days in office.
I think he can recognize fair play and unfair enough to try to do something about it. He wont be able to right every wrong, only God himself is able to do that. Wait for it.

PC

[Gary_C]

So the 150 ish million worth of that product simply had no market place to go to. And that 150 million ish is a tiny piece of the 50+ billion Wisconsin dairy industries massive over production even for its own available market.

I have been told by a local diary board member that i know quite well that the state of wisconsin has 30%+ more producing dairy cows than the entire country of Canada. Our average production per animal is marginally higher but not 30 percent higher.

California has taken over as the largest milk producing state so it's wrong to attribute what is NOT "massive over production" entirely to Wisconsin where the current problem is located.

In simple terms, the milk products flowing into Canada from the US were threatening the entire price support system for Canadian producers and so the processors pulled a little trade protectionist trick to halt the flow. In the US, there are supposed to be protections in the Federal Order System to prevent producers from being dumped by their processors but apparently the powers to be decided a massive trade dispute was a better idea.

He is an embarrassment to every American and a Buffoon to the rest of the world. He will single handed drive the USA to state lower than most 3rd world countries IF he doesn't destroy much of the country with his tyrannical handling of foreign policy. I have a hunch that unemployment in north America as a whole will surpass 30% and more during his tenure.   

That opinion is unwelcome and unwarranted. Don't wish to get this topic moved so lets be a little more respectful to others.

[4x4American]

I didn't know that countries could sue other countries.  Don't ya think this suing thing has gotten a little out of hand?  I wish they'd just say ok, no more suing people. 


Which doesn't lead me to my next observation:
My friend and I found a guy at the Boonville show that has a dry kiln/mill just below the border here in the US, and has another shop up in Quebec.  He commutates across the border each day.  My friend and I have been trying to figure out the advantage of having a dry kiln/mill in the US and a further processing flooring/whatever else shop up in Canukistan.  Which makes me wonder, whats to stop the big canadian companies from moving a piece of their operation to the US to get by the tariff somehow, eh?

[Ron Wenrich]

I remember hearing rumors that the way Canadian companies were getting around it by sending Canadian lumber to Europe, then bringing back European lumber to export to the US.  No tariff on European lumber.  Sometimes, those trips to Europe never really made it there.  Just take the lumber for a ride, and then it was imported from Europe.  Don't know if it's true, but sounds like a good plan.  You have to wonder if other countries aren't doing that.

[4x4American]

Right, like the sawmill ships I hear about all the time, the sawmill buys the logs, goes two miles off the coast into open water, saws out lumber, and then comes back and does it again

[Mooseherder]

Irving became the largest landowner in Maine a few years ago when they bought out Great Northern.  Their operation in St. Leonard, New Brunswick gets some of the wood from the American side, transports it across the border to the Sawmill then ships the dimensional lumber back into the U.S.A.  I think they tried to build the Mill in the USA first years ago but politics got in the way.
We'll see how this all plays out.

[Jeff]

I moved this back out of restricted. Make sure this topic does not wander to a political discussion and stays a business discussion, or it'll be gone again for good to restricted.

[Bandmill Bandit]

In my understanding of NAFTA as a trade philosophy according the 3 administrations of the day, it was supposed to be the "first step" on a progressive road" to a free and open market for north america as a whole. it seems we, as an entire continent have stagnated in that original agreement and I think some one in the Trump administration realistically and legitimately sees that. The unfortunate approach taken by trump himself is an unfortunate result of his lack of global understanding.

what results i think will likely be a better situation and a better for all of North America           

[snowstorm]

the bangor daily news has a pretty good write up about it today. its a pretty complex problem.   

[Oliver05262]

Thanks for mention of that Bangor Daily News article.
http://bangordailynews.com/2017/04/29/the-point/why-many-maine-sawmill-owners-are-not-cheering-trumps-lumber-tariff/

[Gary_C]

"Free Trade" is a misused term. What every country is looking for is "Fair Trade" where products have an equal chance of crossing borders in both directions without unfair pricing advantages due to currency manipulations or government policies.

This Softwood Lumber dispute is, as one wag suggested, as old as the Trojan Wars. Neither country in this dispute can claim to be on the "right side" because in the US environmental policies have devastated the majority of timber harvesting and sawmills in many places while our forests are burning yet we still need vast amounts of softwood lumber for home building. At the same time it is clear that in Canada, large lumber producers get government assistance from below normal stumpage prices. So deciding who is right or wrong has been a never ending battle.

A couple things are clear in this dispute. One is the effects of this dispute are not the same in Maine, Minnesota, or the Pacific Northwest. Another is the dispute is mainly between large mills trying to gain market advantage while the consumer will pay the costs. So what we say or believe about this dispute will have little effect on the outcome as this is a dispute between the big corporate interests.

The unfortunate approach taken by trump himself is an unfortunate result of his lack of global understanding.

You want to blame Trump for this decades old dispute?  :

[Bandmill Bandit]

I think the Bangor article is one of the very best ive seen on the NAFTA Issues in general, even though it is specific to the soft wood lumber issue.

The solutions that have come from some of the industry members (specific to the local situation) as reported in the article also imply that there are indeed solutions for the majority of the industry  members. The hurdles seem to be in the to hill tops in each participant country resulting from the lack of first hand REAl knowledge of the real issues.

It seems the issues in NAFTA are more a few burrs under the harness collars of the todays administrations and they are unwilling to bring the respective horses to the stable to remove the harness/rigging so they can remove ALL of the burrs, do a good inspection, give the horses a good grooming and vet medical check up and REPAIR the harness wear points before they put all of the teams  back in the field to work again.     

We all know for a fact that the people who depend on the industries affected by NAFTA could and would get the agreement fixed and it wouldn't take long.

Leaving it to the governments is a sure recipe for a long drawn out kindergarten sand throwing contest. AND all the sand will still be in the sand box at when it ends.

Yes Gary you are very much in tune with the "Free Trade" issues. No I am not blaming trump for the issues but if there is blame to be place I think we would need to name ALL of the current and past administrations for the very lazy rhetorical approach they present to NAFTA today. Trump is trying to do something different even though he doesn't really know how to go about it constructively. His brash uninformed in your face methodology does not bring the participants together in a forum of willing and cooperative participation that will accomplish the most for all concerned.

IF indeed free trade is the GOAL then lets get to work on this thing and get it moved along to the next phase.

[Roxie]

Nothing political here.   :

The  "US just slapped a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood,"  after Canada arbitrarily disenfranchised Wisconsin dairy farmers.

When you don't like the direction of effective bargaining, blame the other side of being, " brash uninformed in your face methodology." 

[sandsawmill14]

all i can say is in the early 90s we could sell our pine saw logs for $45-$60 dollars a ton now i wont even cut them  :-\  we cant even sell pine chips or pulp right now at all :-\ i mean they wont unload the trucks not just  to cheap to fool with :(  i dont know if its nafta or not but i do know i saw a tt load of framing material that was marked canadian forest products on the tarps in lexington tn last friday  : and at a dollar a mile the just trucking would have been over twice what we would get for at the mill  : now you tell me how that works if somebody aint getting paid something to make it work >:( i know it aint the loggers or small mills up there and im not blaming them  ;) but one or maybe both governments are up to something or it would not be possible to truck lumber that far even if the candians were giving us the lumber free of charge >:(

[treeslayer2003]

all i can say is in the early 90s we could sell our pine saw logs for $45-$60 dollars a ton now i wont even cut them  :-\  we cant even sell pine chips or pulp right now at all :-\ i mean they wont unload the trucks not just  to cheap to fool with :(  i dont know if its nafta or not but i do know i saw a tt load of framing material that was marked canadian forest products on the tarps in lexington tn last friday  : and at a dollar a mile the just trucking would have been over twice what we would get for at the mill  : now you tell me how that works if somebody aint getting paid something to make it work >:( i know it aint the loggers or small mills up there and im not blaming them  ;) but one or maybe both governments are up to something or it would not be possible to truck lumber that far even if the candians were giving us the lumber free of charge >:(

i was getting .40 a foot for big pine, late 90s early 2000s. now .30 and they don't want any right now. also down to one mill. some thing is not right at all. i'm not blaming any one, but some thing had to go wrong some where.

[Gary_C]

Trump is trying to do something different even though he doesn't really know how to go about it constructively. His brash uninformed in your face methodology does not bring the participants together in a forum of willing and cooperative participation that will accomplish the most for all concerned.

IF indeed free trade is the GOAL then lets get to work on this thing and get it moved along to the next phase.

Free trade may be the words that are used by the politicians when they talk but that is an idealistic and incorrect viewpoint. What they really want is a one way street to protect each countries interests. Just because Trump is honest and forthright enough to state his goals publicly does not indicate he is wrong in his approach and even if you don't like his position it certainly is not a valid reason for personal criticism.

[sandsawmill14]

in late 90s a 2x4x8 was 1.69  today at lowes 3.70     in the 90s sell all we wanted now cant sell any pine ??? :

gary_c  x2

[nativewolf]

all i can say is in the early 90s we could sell our pine saw logs for $45-$60 dollars a ton now i wont even cut them  :-\  we cant even sell pine chips or pulp right now at all :-\ i mean they wont unload the trucks not just  to cheap to fool with :(  i dont know if its nafta or not but i do know i saw a tt load of framing material that was marked canadian forest products on the tarps in lexington tn last friday  : and at a dollar a mile the just trucking would have been over twice what we would get for at the mill  : now you tell me how that works if somebody aint getting paid something to make it work >:( i know it aint the loggers or small mills up there and im not blaming them  ;) but one or maybe both governments are up to something or it would not be possible to truck lumber that far even if the candians were giving us the lumber free of charge >:(

i was getting .40 a foot for big pine, late 90s early 2000s. now .30 and they don't want any right now. also down to one mill. some thing is not right at all. i'm not blaming any one, but some thing had to go wrong some where.

There is just a ton, a ton of pine out there in the SE.  I mean a ton.  And the paper mills are not buying, they are going bankrupt all over the world (not just here). 

The plantation pine in the US can't go for pulp so they are letting get up to chipnsaw all the the way small saw timber.  Yields/acre are so much higher and the owners of the land are not pulp mills, they are pension funds that have guarantees to meet, meaning at some point they just have to cut wood. 

Many on here seem to think we have unfair trade issues.  I would not presume that at all, I believe we have a glut in supply caused by fundamental market disruption.  Also, I don't see it improving.  Young kids are not into mcmansions, not into consumption at all.   If you want to see what the trend is just look at Japan, there the young folks dramatically cut the number of cars they own, 5 years later it started showing up here.  For someone in an Urban setting you can get by just fine with Uber and public transportation/walking and they would rather live in the City.  Baby boomers are retiring to...the city. 

Now speaking of Japan.  Japan planted 20% of the country in forest following wwII (they had deforested).  Those plantations are coming on line right now and there is no one to cut many of them.  It's going to be a crisis in and of itself.  Wonderful cedar just waiting for someone with chainsaws and willing to walk on steep slopes.  So, you could see Japan become completely self sufficient in timber.  Even an exporter.  That's like the US fracking revolution and oil/gas pricing.  It doesn't take much to cause a huge swing. 

Then on to Trump since some are singing his praise.  Trump may be a business person but he was bankrupt at 50 and has let 4 of his firms go into bankruptcy- there is nothing honest about him- let me spell that out for you.  IF you backed Trump casino/developments and you trusted him to make money- he failed..completely.   Only big city connections to questionable folk like the Kushners kept him able to fund the next failing gig.  Lots of honest folk on here but Trump? Married 3 times; never faithful.  But most importantly, his lawyer is the lawyer for Russian Mafia bosses.  He may be crafty, he may be shrewd buyer of fire sale assets..that's about what you can actually say about him.  He will break his word to anyone and anything as he has demonstrated in 40+ years of business and personal conduct.  How does this impact his relations with the world?  The US is not an island.  He lied to my family 30 years ago if you have not figured it out.  If you are Mexico or Canada would you trust anything coming from this administration?  Probably not, that's why he's a laughing stock in Korea (where he claimed the US had sent aircraft carrier when it was being filmed over 1200 miles away in a naval exercise planned 2 years in advance).  As someone that has lived for and worked overseas in this industry and for uncle sam...I have no expectation that anything useful will be accomplished in the next 3 1/2 years.  It is not a political rant, I'm no fan of HC either.  Just don't expect his administration to help any forester/logger in the US while he could inadvertently trigger a trade war and bankrupt the county (just look at his tax reform which would dramatically increase our national debt). 

We can put this to the test, I'm cynical.  I bet if we plot the timber prices over the last 3 decades the price of timber and lumber over the next 3 years will hardly differ to the upside. 

[treeslayer2003]

just out of curiosity, what is it that sell in the box stores for 2x4? its not yellow pine, and i doubt its western fir. i always wondered what it is.

[treeslayer2003]

oh native wolf, no doubt your right on that. i doubt prices will climb much what ever happens. i ain't a politician and don't trust any of um any where.

[nativewolf]

yep Treeslayer that a simple way to say what I was trying to say.  Eyes wide open