President Trump issues Executive Order addressing Lumber Production

[240b]

I think most of the western forest are fire based ecosystems which have suffered from fire suppression for the last hundred and something years allowing fuels to be built up to unnatural levels. So when you do have a fire, it's ridiculously intense as opposed to having regular low intensity fires which maintain the forest

[quilbilly]

Most west coast forests burned every 250-350 yrs. Even the "virgin" forests were about 90% DF which is an open area full sunlight seed. In a true old growth forest here it would be all succession shade trees like cedar, hemlock, and spruce. 

Logging mimics the fire and allows for DF planting and brushy browse animals love so much. Logging also creates roads for firefighters and cuts down diseased trees. 

[SwampDonkey]

Back in 1994, the year of the great wind storm in the Christmas Mountains of central NB, thousands of acres were laid down by the wind in those hills. It was a massive undertaking and 12 months to salvage all the timber by several companies. If that were not done there would have been a massive fire, 100 % sure. Lightening strikes in dead dry bushy tree tops and all the bigger wood it would ignite. A lot of the wood was old growth balsam fir, which for fir is 60-90 years, it grew thick all it's life, so stems were small and not very wind resilient. Many of the fir trees on the ground broken off. Most spruce went down by uprooting, it is a much longer lived tree. But when 80% is fir and it goes down, the spruce won't stand either. And by the way, the place was full of white birch through that fir, and if it does not go down in wind, it will go down by stem scald by 3 years because it was too open when the fir went over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOwm_U8gcDo&t=718s

[barbender]

I've never seen a Lake States clearcut area "burn really well". Of course, there were clearcut areas that had huge fires in the late 1800's and early 1900's, I suspect that was because with the manual hand logging utilization was poor and there was that much more tops and wood left above waist height, which would and did burn. 

On every job I've been on, which includes many large clear cuts and thinnings, the slash is ran down where it is in contact or within a foot of the ground, which keeps it moist. It breaks down faster and tends not to burn. On the clearcuts, the new growth is typically very leafy and it tends toward a moister environment overall. In most cases I think a fire would burn up to one of those and either be slowed down, or burn out. 

I can't say for certain what a fire would do, because we don't have many, or at least many that get large. I attribute that to the forest management and forest road networks that allow good access to any fires that do occur. 

The only really big fires we've had around me were USFS prescribed burns that went, shall we say, sideways😬 And those were started out in swamp meadows, not forested areas. They burned into managed timber a d that's where they were able to catch upto it and put it out.

[Ianab]

Can someone explain how logging is supposed to prevent forest fires to me?

A "Mature" forest has a lot of dense trees, and various debris laying around, that allows a fire to REALLY take off. Once a fire is jumping between the crowns of trees with a stiff breeze behind it, it's basically impossible to contain. 

Now if you have managed blocks of land with fire breaks and blocks of new forest with only  6 ft high trees, then you can defend those areas. Fire crews can go into those areas and actually fight the fire. Vs a scenario where 100 ft tall trees are just bursting into flame at the speed of the wind (30+ mph), and spot fires are starting 5 miles downwind. Sending crews into those scenarios is both pointless and often fatal. 

Pre modern times many forests naturally burned. Some trees even Need a good fire to open their seed cones. The locals at the time either ran away, or died, but the forest grew back for another cycle in another ~200 years. Rinse and repeat. 

We don't like that system any more as we have houses and stuff in those areas. So keeping the forest managed to reduce the fire potential is a valid plan. 

[Ianab]

There is nothing objectively wrong with exporting logs, especially if there is no domestic market for them. This is the case where I live.

That's the thing. NZ produces far more logs than we can ever use, or even have the mills to process. Solution? Sell them Asia, who need logs, and have plenty of TVs and computers to sell us.

There is a push to process more locally, and so export more higher value product. But you don't want to cripple the local forestry  / logging industry by blocking them from a potential markets. And banging on large tariffs overnight doesn't encourage long term industry investment. 

[SwampDonkey]

In the great Miramachi fire, 3.95 million acres were destroyed, roughly 22% of the province. 

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/1OJlF7nKKdJJqvvZOYehrg

[beenthere]

And as mentioned, the real trouble and danger happens with a forest fire is when it gets into the crowns. Very hard to control, as it creates its own wind. If the fire can be contained to the ground debris, it is much easier to control. Somewhat like a controlled burn.

[barbender]

I hate to speak in too general of terms about forest management and fire risk, because there are so many different types of forest and they all have different fire risks. An old, dense stand of lodgepole pine in the mountains is quite different from a closed canopy, mature eastern hardwood forest. 

That said, most conifers benefit from thinning in many ways, and decreased fire risk is one of those. 

[SwampDonkey]

Yep, and as stated in the video the blowdown was patchy, with standing timber around it, you can see narrow strips of blow down in the aerial video. Also some still had 20-30% still standing in the patches. Lots of dead dry limbs in those old fir as it holds limbs longer than pine. A lot of them dead limbs have hanging moss/lichen (old man's beard) which easy to start a fire with if there is no birch bark. Dry fine fuels is part of assessing fire risk.

[nativewolf]

Learned a bit more about international hardwood trade today.  So, turns out China has been using the bulk of the logs and lumber bought from the USA to produce furniture & other products for Europe.  Now due to European rules on the origin of lumber, and our highly fractured supply chain, the asian buyers can't supply that certification.  Thus, they may be having issues.  There is some FSC wood that could meet that but it's a small %.  Ok, what does that mean.  China might have been getting ready to reduce purchases in any case.  Their economy is not growing fast enough to consume the lumber they buy and Americans are substituting not purchasing hardwoods at all. 

This knowledge helps me make plans but didn't make me feel good about the industry.  It would mean that we may see an even faster reduction of the hardwood industry. 

Also one of the shuttered Idaho/Montana mills is sawing DF again.  Good news for that area.

[Larry]

Got a email from the NHLA a bit ago which said the EU was planning on putting tariffs on basically anything wood in response to the US metals tariffs. Supposed to go in effect in April.

Closer to home got walnut logs in today to custom saw for a small part time logger. He said our local buyer for walnut logs has stopped buying completely. We were speculating if the cause was the tariff war or something else.

[quilbilly]

Not sure how much Europe actually buys. I believe they already had a softwood ban in place. Yes they buy high grade hardwoods, but not being back east it seems like no china no Canada would be a bigger issue

[SwampDonkey]

Any wood in Canada that might not be certified is off small private woodlots. All public land woodlands are certified across the board. Europe doesn't buy much wood, Japan buys more wood then Europe combined and they are third. Europe only buys 10% of US hardwood exports. China imports the most but has been declining in recent years, especially because of COVID lockdowns. And 80% of Chinese furniture production stays in China, because of there housing boom which has slowed now. There are American furniture companies using Chinese labor to mill parts, then assemble back in the USA. I have some of it, 2 rocking chairs. Well made to, I will add.

[nativewolf]

Got a email from the NHLA a bit ago which said the EU was planning on putting tariffs on basically anything wood in response to the US metals tariffs. Supposed to go in effect in April.

Closer to home got walnut logs in today to custom saw for a small part time logger. He said our local buyer for walnut logs has stopped buying completely. We were speculating if the cause was the tariff war or something else.

That is due to China.  They did not impose a "tariff" per se.  They said USA containers of logs and lumber had bugs.  So they blocked them all.  Very clever.  Fumigated containers dont have bugs but this lets China use a single action to completely block trade in logs, lumber to come shortly.  It forces Chinese buyers to look elsewhere for sources of logs because no one can just eat a 25% tariff on walnut.  Instead they'll look to Brazilian and African hardwoods and likely to Australia and Canada.  This is why I think Canadian log exports and lumber exports could pickup quite a bit.

So, China was the buyer for Walnut.  Much of the walnut harvested was getting exported in log/lumber form to China.  Walnut sales are gone until this ends.  You won't see price point destruction, it is just a complete halt in walnut.

If you have great walnut then there are still buyers of course but prices will be down.

Our veneer buyers have told us that the Canadian tariffs are going to hit the few remaining USA producers of veneer because Canada was a good market.  Europe was going ok but now we'll see.  

[nativewolf]

Any wood in Canada that might not be certified is off small private woodlots. All public land woodlands are certified across the board. Europe doesn't buy much wood, Japan buys more wood then Europe combined and they are third. Europe only buys 10% of US hardwood exports. China imports the most but has been declining in recent years, especially because of COVID lockdowns. And 80% of Chinese furniture production stays in China, because of there housing boom which has slowed now. There are American furniture companies using Chinese labor to mill parts, then assemble back in the USA. I have some of it, 2 rocking chairs. Well made to, I will add.

Yep, it's why I think Canada can export to Europe.  Europe imports lots of wood- they imported the most expensive stuff and if you sold a $8/bdft log chances are it or the veneer from it was headed to europe, but more importantly imported lots of Chinese furniture.  

Your 80% number is not correct based on my discussion with the trade people yesterday, the majority of the 80% went to Europe.  Some stayed in China but until China figures out how to fix its economic issues they can't finish the apartments and thus, they don't need the furniture.  

I too enjoy a good rocking chair, post pictures.

[SwampDonkey]

That info is direct from the National Hardwood Lumber Association. Europe hasn't been a significant importer from over here for some time. That's from many sources. 

Europe is about to put the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) into effect.

https://www.americanhardwood.org/en/news-feed/eudr-latest-developments

https://fsc.org/en/eudr-explained

[nativewolf]

That info is direct from the National Hardwood Lumber Association. Europe hasn't been a significant importer from over here for some time. That's from many sources. 

Europe is about to put the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) into effect.

https://www.americanhardwood.org/en/news-feed/eudr-latest-developments

https://fsc.org/en/eudr-explained

I agree they are not big in quantity but they set the top end price, EU and Japan.  We even have specific Japanese grade logs, same in DF.  Neither import so much, just the best.

Yes, EUDR is in and that will impact many.  Not our little company, it will help us.

[SwampDonkey]

Pretty much have to pay top end for the good stuff if you want it. Scarcity brings better prices.  Japan buys way more wood than any one European country, by far. Is it not a G7 country to.  ;)