President Trump issues Executive Order addressing Lumber Production

[rusticretreater]

From Fox News:
President Donald Trump on Saturday signed two executive orders that call for immediately expanding American lumber production and addressing lumber imports' threat to national security.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-issues-executive-orders-addressing-lumber-production-national-security-concerns?dicbo=v2-mgiEj5O&intcmp=fn_article_bc_ob_more_from

The man wants us to be self sufficient in lumber production.

[barbender]

Wait...isn't it better to just let our forests burn or get taken out by insect infestations and import lumber from other countries?

[SwampDonkey]

From what I've read and heard over the years, you can certainly cut a lot more wood to feed demand. We could stand a little bit less cutting up here, so our woods grows more than 30 years before it's clearcut again. We used to have 80 year planning horizons, that ended by the end of the 80's. I'd say to that most woodlots were being liquidated starting at that time.  They wouldn't have had the wood if the old timers cut that way before them. We also made DNR an armed enforcement role instead of actually managing the forest, to decide when, where and what gets cut off public land. I have thinned for 25 years and have never seen a silviculture map provided by DNR on public land. All the silviculture maps come from mills. Because of the push for low value wood being cut more often, that kept stumpage low, which in turn kept purchased wood off woodlots low money. They based market price on low stumpage rates.

[newoodguy78]

Swamp is all your TSI work done on and paid for by private companies?

[SwampDonkey]

It's not TSI that I do. It's juvenile spacing with clearing saws. I work on public land, mill ground and some private woodlot ground. Government pays for public land, woodlot owners co-pay with government funding through the woodlot associations. Mills pay on their own land. My firewood cutting is a form of TSI on my own land, I cut for firewood. Expense is out of my own pocket. I use all the wood, some may be for wet crossings, but it's all used.

[mike dee]

Wait...isn't it better to just let our forests burn or get taken out by insect infestations and import lumber from other countries?

Try out some simulations!

https://wadetb.github.io/life/

[Kodiakmac]

Over the last 60 years Ontario's Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) has entered countless Agreements with private landowners that work like this: MNR would supply (and maybe plant) the pine or spruce seedlings at a greatly reduced price on your old fields, provided that you agreed not to cut them down for the Christmas tree market.  

Furthermore, the Ontario Government and Municipalities teamed up to offer property tax concessions to landowners who have converted their old fields to "Conservation Lands".

The end result - in these parts - has been a shambles: plantations of peckerpoles that have never been thinned to produce usable timber, and are succumbing to insects, fungus, and eventually fire.

So what could have/should have been an opportunity to have an incredible volume of marketable timber, was squandered.  And, in any event, a majority of municipalities in southern and eastern Ontario have introduced bylaws that effectively outlaw logging.

[BargeMonkey]

2x larger log yards just called guys today, NOT TAKING WOOD now with the export thing. See how long this drags out for. 

[quilbilly]

Yep, the tariffs are gonna hurt us. With all the mills closing or going for small wood it's hard to get a market for over 30 inch wood out here if it isn't clean. Have to ship 3 hrs just to get rid of it. Makes no sense out here to shut down the export market but increase logging on public land. There aren't enough mills to take the wood, unless they team up with some sort of public private partnership to guarantee mills a certain amount so they build new ones.

[Ianab]

There aren't enough mills to take the wood, unless they team up with some sort of public private partnership to guarantee mills a certain amount so they build new ones.

That's a problem I can see with the plan as well. It's all very well making a decree, but what's the actual long term policy that's going to make the needed investment a financially sensible one. If the policy has been put in place seemingly on a whim. it can also be reversed just as easily. Suddenly Canadian wood is back on the menu. It's not just the mills either, the loggers will need more machinery and workers. Are they going to commit to an expensive lease and staff training without some solid contracts?

The idea of increasing timber production is basically a good one, it's the actual process of achieving it that's the hard part.

[Ianab]

The end result - in these parts - has been a shambles: plantations of peckerpoles that have never been thinned to produce usable timber, and are succumbing to insects, fungus, and eventually fire.

Simply saying "Plant more Trees" isn't really a plan. 99% of NZ forestry is plantation softwoods (Radiata Pine and Doug Fir). But the management of that has been pretty much perfected over the last ~150 years. So plant selection / site prep / planting and then pruning / thinning for the first 5-10 years are all worked out (There is even a manual for it). 

Because the plantations are constantly being logged and replanted, that means a steady supply of logs, and land owners can count on there being a demand for pine logs in 25-30 years when the new crop is ready to harvest. 

You need to avoid the Chicken or Egg issue. No good having logs if there is no mill to buy them. No good building a mill if you can't get logs.

[ehp]

I said this all along , no use cutting more timber when you do not have the mills to saw it or a market everyone can make money at . As of today there is less demand for your lumber or logs than there was yesterday , it's like around here, I got tons of timber to cut but the mill is full but will still take my stuff but they think I should be fishing or doing something else cause they donot need the logs to be honest

[rusticretreater]

As I understand it, the Executive Order dictates that there be analysis and new guidance issued.  The orders are far reaching when you read them. Mentioned in the article were streamlining permitting processes, wildfire abatement and forest management, and a determination how reliant the US is on imported lumber.

It was noted that imports of lumber from Canada, Germany and Brazil have sharply increased.  Curtailing these imports will certainly hurt in the short run, but fuel a boom in the timber services industry in the long run.  Plus, companies like Asplundh will profit tremendously from robust forest management policies. We all don't like it when California, SC and Canada burn so horrifically, so that part is a good thing for sure.

While I don't really like all this tariff stuff and the back and forth, its his way of starting the negotiations through a position of strength.  Canada is nothing but trees for millions of acres. Their wood is cheap and plentiful.  But prudence requires looking at it from the viewpoint of what happens if they start to squeeze us like those OPEC criminals.

BTW, Canada as the 51st state would solve the problem.

[Ianab]

So far I don't think there is a forestry version of OPEC (OFEC?). 

NZ actually exports wood to the US, mostly pine/ fir construction lumber into the California area. But it's "only" about $200 million worth, so probably flying under the tariff radar at the moment. And it's only about 7% of the wood exported, so it wouldn't be devastating to lose. Might hurt a couple of mills that mostly export to that market, but it's not the only place to sell wood. 

I guess the thing is NZ actually has a positive trade balance with China, sure we import a heap of stuff from them, but they buy a roughly equivalent amount of stuff. Like logs / lumber, beef, butter, cheese etc. That's why we don't like trade wars and import restrictions, and try and keep out of that sort of crap. 

Govt push here is to do more log processing onshore, vs exporting logs, but again you get the chicken and egg thing. This time with sawmills and markets. You can't market wood you can't process, but should you build a sawmill for a market that doesn't yet exist? One certainty is the log supply, as there was heavy planting done in the late 90s, and that wood is coming on stream now. Only question is how much gets shipped out to Asia as logs, vs how much can be processed locally (and then shipped out). 

I guess there is no reason the US can't actually become a net wood exporter, you have the land area to grow trees. NZ forestry production comes from about 8% of our land area, but it's carefully managed, same as you would grow corn, just on a longer timeline. 38% of our land area is forest, but the other 30% is basically tied up in National Parks and State owned land / reserves etc. But maybe 75% of production ends up exported as we just don't use enough wood locally. Only stuff that's imported is specialty woods that don't grow so well here (and some of that is from the US, Want some expensive walnut furniture?)

Encouraging better forest production is good good thing, but NZ as an economy doesn't like tariffs. Get better at producing and selling stuff if you have a trade imbalance. 

I've done my best to keep politics out of this thread, and just looked at economics to avoid a move to the restricted topics. Please keep it that way, the thread topic was borderline, but factual. 

[arojay]

Canada has a long and unwise history of being hewers of wood and drawers of water.  As a country, we expose ourselves to the present risk by milking the cash cow of raw log and dimension lumber export, while lining up to buy IKEA furniture.  More and more I see the wisdom of the phrase, 'take your wood as far as you can'.

[Andries]

As I understand it, the Executive Order dictates that there be analysis and new guidance issued.  The orders are far reaching when you read them. Mentioned in the article were streamlining permitting processes, wildfire abatement and forest management, and a determination how reliant the US is on imported lumber.
. . . 

I just saw a headline announcing another pause on the across-the-board tarrifs, for both Canada and Mexico.
The Lumber Industry analysis,as an executive order, is still in forward gear, but it's not clear what the intent is.
.
Any ideas from the brain trust here?

[beenthere]

In the big scheme of world trade, I liken this to a chess game. Where the lumber industry is but one of the pawns. Pawns in the game of chess have their importance but are expendable, and the human life within a pawn ends up not very significant. 
The lumber industry has been badgered at least for the last 50+ years I've known about the back and forth negotiations between different countries including Canada/USA and even Russia when dumping their dimension lumber into the market. The deals between countries runs deep but the life of the families that labor in the woods and the lumber mills have little consideration as the industry they labor for is but a pawn in the big scheme of things. Extremely important, yet ends up not. 

Maybe the large hammer (i.e. 25%) will be effective for the innards of the pawns. 

[Magicman]

Folks don't realize that Trump is a master of making moves with one hand to get attention while doing what he intends to do with the other hand and being undetected until it is done.

[beenthere]

Lynn
Just like a good chess player, too. 

[Ron Wenrich]

I think that part of this has to do with the new direction they want for the national forests.  My understanding is that they want to do some more intensive forestry work than what is currently practiced.  They want to do away with some of the regulations that have timber sales tied up in courts for years.  Doing this will ultimately end up with more stumpage available and a healthier forests.  Might even reduce the number and intensity of some of the wildfires.  At least, that's what's hoped for.

But, if you increase available fiber, then you have to have a market.  Dimension markets have been decreasing since 1986.  Private housing starts peaked in 1973.  The housing  markets have been decreasing since then.  Currently, there's a 20% reduction over peak.  I doubt we'll get back to peak housing starts as the boomers cash in and more homes become available.

Production of sawn lumber has been pretty steady the past several years.  Current annual production is about 26 billion bf, while consumption is 42 billion.  Imports account for about 15.  There is also a small amount that goes for export.  The slice of imported lumber has been increasing for the past 20+ yrs.  

So, it looks like if imports are restricted, there's plenty of room for production expansion.  I think a quota system would be more effective, if this is a reason for the tariffs. 

[SwampDonkey]

I do see those trends on starts. But also the Stats I see from US Census bureau on completed homes show 1.65M in 2006 and 0.940 M in 1975, 0.447M in 2011 and 1.02M in 2022.  Here where I live there has been 3 houses built in 10 years and looks like another going up this spring. But you don't get much house building in farming areas like here. In fact subdividing a farm for houses jumps your taxes, including 16 years of back taxes.

[Mooseherder]

Builders are waiting on concrete in parts of Florida.  It's slowing some growth.

[Larry]

But, if you increase available fiber, then you have to have a market.  Dimension markets have been decreasing since 1986.  Private housing starts peaked in 1973.  The housing  markets have been decreasing since then.  Currently, there's a 20% reduction over peak.  I doubt we'll get back to peak housing starts as the boomers cash in and more homes become available.

Move over concrete and steel, mass timber construction is here.

Watched this one from the ground up.

It's pretty exciting to see all the mass timber projects come to life almost in my front yard. Sure there have been problems and setbacks, I hope it all comes together.

The just completed Walmart mega headquarters campus is a show case for mass timber.

Walmart Campus

The University of Arkansas just a few miles away.

America's largest mass timber building

Tall Timber: The Future of Cities in Wood

And there are more.

[SwampDonkey]

British Columbia allows for wooden structures over 18 stories tall. That's where you'll see tall timber construction in Canada mostly. UBC's Brock Commons Tallwood House, is an 18-storey student residence. Currently the tallest wooden building in the world. Although, the Canada Earth Tower in Vancouver, is planned to be a 37-storey building. Eastward, it is pretty much centred around Toronto and Montreal. Interesting times.

[beenthere]

Is mass timber construction where wood is the cladding over the steel? That's what I see in Larry's pic.