Log prices

[nativewolf]

Almost all the loggers I know just don't like the current admin so I feel they are pessimistic and that makes me optimistic.  The order books are just through the roof so :-\.  I think what happens with the evergrande debt situation in China is worth watching.  Most of the debt is held by Chinese entities and only a few billion here.  The question is can China force a restructuring so as not to burst the real estate bubble.  The Chinese apartment size has tripled from 1990 to 2020 so that today the average new apartment in a Chinese city is actually much nicer than one in Tokyo or London for example.  The costs are just as much as London though, if not higher sometimes.  

The point there being that there is a huge amount of borrowed wealth tied up in real estate.  If China can pull off a restructuring without popping the bubble the base floor price for export hardwoods will stay elevated.  

The USA side of things is harder to figure out, we have lots of debt and huge savings at the same time.  I suspect that the spring could see a flood of housing sales as people rush to beat increasing interest rates designed to reduce inflation and money supply.  Not sure what happens in 2-3 years but i am sort of counting on strong demand for 2 more.  It started going crazy in August/Sept 2020.  4 years is a good cycle.  So for me I'm looking to grow til winter 2023/24.  Then we'll take some temperatures.  Of course any ol thing could happen and crash the markets.  China could try to invade Taiwan, etc.  None of this is advice just my personal ramblings.  

For now I found 2 more price increases today and a major investment in export markets based in VA.  Took all day to figure out who is behind it.  Barge's favorite folks.  

Our walnut table top maker immediately jumped when I invited him to look at some big uglies.  He gets excited at 40" or larger and some of them are a bit small.  There are 3 really decent butt logs that should have his attention so we'll push the rest to finish a load.  I need to post pictures in what we're cutting, might help someone out.  

[SwampDonkey]

Pulp prices have been falling since July, but very slowly. Panel prices have been steady since mid August, no big shift up or down. Lumber prices have been falling since late October after a slight uptick in September - mid October, which happens in hurricane season any year. Right now 2 x 4's $800/th., on the high side for knotty wood with live edge corners. Rare to get square edge 2 x 4's. :D Local pricing on 2 x 6" x 16's fell $6 or $7 bucks a piece though in the last week, still $5 higher than 2019.

As to hemlock, that's like selling tamarack up here, not much money in it. So they stand in clear cuts to fall down in the fall winds. One mill wanted 40 acres of fir thinned, but you had to climb over cross piled tamarack. See you later, have a nice life. :D

[nativewolf]

Surprised they don't grab the tamarack for fence posts

[SwampDonkey]

That market is white cedar. A cedar post will stand for over 40 years, tamarack will rot in 10.

[mike_belben]

Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D

[moodnacreek]

That market is white cedar. A cedar post will stand for over 40 years, tamarack will rot in 10.

S.D., Is all of your w. cedar northern white cedar?  Asked another way, does any Atlantic w. c. grow in N.B. ?     

[SwampDonkey]

All northern white. We call it eastern white cedar up here.

Here's some 3 foot diameter stuff, what we call upland white cedar.





Swamp white cedar, pretty much 90%+ white cedar in those stands. Lots of big leaners. :D Biggest there in photo is 24 inches @ dbh. For cedar posts I prefer the 140-160 year old ones in a swamp, about 4 to 6" diameter, tight rings, more rot resistant.

[SwampDonkey]

Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D

Go for it, Mike. :D You gotta crack the code of 'set in their ways'. ;D

[wisconsitom]

Re "upland white-cedar":  Some researchers in Wisconsin once hypothesized that upland white-cedar was a separate subspecies from that growing in swamps.  Subsequent work revealed this not to be the case.  All same tree genetically.  

Better than most at tolerating a saturated soil, but best growth in more upland position.

[mike_belben]

Then they should be able to sell 4x more tamarack.  ;D

Go for it, Mike. :D You gotta crack the code of 'set in their ways'. ;D

Thats like trying to get $70 for a face cord in TN. It cant be done!   :D

[moodnacreek]

S.D., thanks for reply.  It is almost hard to believe those clumps of w.c. fence posts are the same species as those nice straight cedars growing up the bank.  Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing. One time I had erc, nwc, awc and dawn redwood logs at my place all at the same time. Down here the northern [white cedar] is rare unless planted.  there are not many who know these eastern cedars.

[SwampDonkey]

Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing.

We see variation up here in yellow birch to, some is more silver colored than golden yellow. A lot to do with soil. I know sugar maple bark looks different off glacial sandy soil than around here on farm ground.

[SwampDonkey]

I've seen the water table rise after a cedar swamp is cut, about all you get is a crop of cat tails, sedge and willows/alders after. :

[moodnacreek]

Up near the boarder I would see at a cedar mill both dark brown and light gray bark and that apparently means nothing.

We see variation up here in yellow birch to, some is more silver colored than golden yellow. A lot to do with soil. I know sugar maple bark looks different off glacial sandy soil than around here on farm ground.

Sugar maple in the north country sure is different [bark]. I always thought bark patterns where about age and growth rate of tree but apparently there is more to it. Identifying logs by bark alone [is what I do] but sometimes I have to bend over and look at the end grain or worse take a slab off.

[mike_belben]

I can only tell with white oaks at this point but the bark sure does tell the health story on a sick tree. 

[SwampDonkey]

Yes, Mike that is true. Even balsam fir, when I see those pitch bubbles dry up in the bark it is too late for a log and many times it has been suppressed from over topping trees, it is also old. When I'm cleaning up the junk trees on the woodlot, the dry bark ones are the first to go, usually rotten inside or dark brown at least. But the soil is about tree health as well, as in drought stress, nutrient regime, rooting depth....all part of the big picture. ;) Corn on sand versus nice loam farm ground is quite  pathetic. :D

I have a blow down area on some wet ground, we call imperfect drainage. Lots of open sky, but the fir regen is sparce and grow extremely slow. Looks dark green and not necrotic, but doesn't seem to like it much. All kinds of seed trees around it on better drained ground, producing millions of seeds. What I get on the wet area is mostly aspen, red maple and ash and not thick. I would really like to have cedar there, I'm sure that was the climax forest in there. But there was a fire over 100 years ago and it came back to aspen that grew huge.

[mike_belben]

Good points SD.

I am being slowly convinced by the testimony of failure to success ag stories that fungal to bacterial ratio holds the answers.   This pic wil help me keep it shorter.  Look at the growing fungal dominance that leads to a forest, this image does not show the dramatically thickening top soil humus that accompanies fungal life.  Tillage destroys fungus, humus and topsoil.  and explodes bacterial growth.





Other day i read that beech is a climax species.  Mudfarmer is covered in takeover beech.  Its been what, 100yrs since upstate NY was tilled?  TN plateau has similar soil deposits as the PA/NY appalachians but widespread disturbance is more recent as we were a later settlement and still ag/forestry dominant.  Our frequent harvests leaves a shorter more open canopy and puts more sun on the dirt, drying it out and stunting fungi. Not good for beech.

   Our beeches are none to runty in flatter harvestable ground except in the few undisturbed forests ive seen.  Around me accessible land has been harvested atleast once since the white man arrived.  Beech grow large and dominant only in the deepest creek bottoms that were passed over and stayed shady, about 200ft elevation lower than the tops.  These areas stay moist and collect washed down sediments, providing good fungal environment.  A year round creek will have the biggest beech in the 500 acres or so im most familiar with.  Im looking around now and there is a 100ft buffer between beech and the sunlight from a field edge. The sunlight cant hit the dirt a beech is on directly. Filtered overhead light only.


 So the shoe seems to fit with fungal root relationships.


Regarding dead crop ground, this one spells it out well.  National average soybean yield is at 47 bushel/acre.  This is the microbial analysis of a 40 year soybean only tillage.  





Down to 14 bushel/acre.  You either cater to your free fungi or you buy and inject your fertility.  Dave Brandt says do you wanna sign your name on the back of the check or the front?

[jpsheb]

• ...

No trucks...:(

Having the same issue in southern VA.  Well, no drivers.  There are plenty of trucks around...for sale.  I think I have a few options here, but hauling is definitely the bottleneck here.  Fortunately, one local logger (3 miles away) offered to leave an empty trailer on the landing, along with a knuckleboom he isn't currently using.  Can't say no to that.  

[mike_belben]

Be sure to take care of that fellow.  Kind offer. 


Pics of beech bottoms. 









Feet in the creek sand.  They can get a good ways up the shady side of hills if theres lots of water nearby.  






This swamp was skidder harvested probably in the mid 60s to 70s. It has a lot of whiskey barrels in it too.  They only grow like this in hollar bottoms. 

[SwampDonkey]

It's well known that fungi, especially mycorrhizae act as an extension of tree roots. That means more water and nutrient uptake and the fungus gets some sugar as a reward. Any good forest soils book was talking of this decades ago. It's mostly work the German's have done to understand what the relationship is. I'm sure others would like credit. :D

Our beech up here are all pretty much dying or dead from beech scale disease. I cruised a woodlot north of here back 30 years ago, with 30" smooth beech trees in there. The further north of here the better the beech, colder winters. That was a 50 acre block, that became more potato ground. It was quite evident that the landowner used the volume estimates, a wood price sheet from the forest marketing board and went looking for the highest bidder for his wood. :D

The back yard beech here has been steadily declining over the last few years and has a lot of seed every other year. A year ago the central leader of the main stem died. Was terrible dry here for 5 years, last summer we started to get some normalcy here.

I remember a fellow from New York was giving a lecture and field trip on managing beech. He said a lot down his way where suckered from parent tree roots. I dug up 6 (more or less, exact numbers fade in 30 years ;)) beech in the understory and showed they were seed born. :D There is still value in those courses, but just proves there is no one size fits all. Always enjoy those out door courses. ;)

[mike_belben]

Was that east or west germany?   Im reading a 1961 soviet state govt soil microbiology book and the author credits soviet scientists a generation before him as being microbiology pioneers so maybe 1930s?  

American agriculture is pretty slow to change out of its ww2 ways. If its breaking down, subsidize it.  


Ive not seen any beech nuts this year.. Are they a sporadic mast crop?  I know very little about beech. 

[SwampDonkey]

If you have blue jays, they'll have them harvested as fast as you can blink. :D

https://youtu.be/um53ncwxqm8

[mike_belben]

I do.  Cardinals and blue jays get winter wheat seed out of the garden every morning lately.  I enjoy it.   

But i digress as always.  Whats that got to do with the price of logs in china?   ;D

[SwampDonkey]

Well, if they are looking for beech logs, they better look elsewhere. It does remind me of one time, someone in NS looking for perfect smooth beech. I wished him luck, and said if there are some they would likely be few and far between a mess of diseased ones. ;D I suspected these were for export, but was a long time ago now, so memory of it fades. :D

[nativewolf]

Digress? Us?  You jest😂