The Cost Of Fertilizer and Fertilizer Plant Fire

[mike_belben]

Yes thatd be a lot of grindings and spreading.

On large scale acreage cover crops and companion plantings do the same job. Carbon is gaseous.  Plants capture it from the air and secrete it into the root zone by liquid secretions called root exudates.  Soil biology feeds on this carbohydrate juice.  But different plants support different microbial ecosystems.


There are thousands of bacterial and fungal species in a diverse forest.  As we clear it to crop it to corn on corn on corn on corn or whatever haygrass species for generations... the microbial diversity dries up, and synthetic fertility becomes an ever growing requirement.  

The late stage of worn out ground is compaction, runoff, poor infiltration and moisture retention and increasing fertilizer quantity to maintain shrinking yields.  Trace minerals get depleted and deficiencies signal for pest and disease to remove it.  


Rotations and diverse multispecies cover crops will delay this and in time rejuvenate the diminished soil biology, reversing the effects above.  It works everywhere on earth that grows a plant. Maybe different local species mix and timings but its the same concept on the entire planet.  Adding livestock rotations even better.

No i havent done any of it to scale, but tremendous proof abounds even on large large scale. Dont shoot the messenger.

[Tom King]

I already have people bothering me to buy this stuff, and I never intended, or said anything about selling any.  The two piles in this picture aren't ten percent of it.  It's full of Large Earthworms.  I could go in the fishing worm business.

I jokingly told one guy that I'd sell some for 50 bucks a scoop with my tractor bucket, thinking that was a ridiculous price, and that would be the end of it.  He said he'd take five scoops like it is, before I even have it screened.



 

[snobdds]

For me, you really can't rotate hay fields.  Grass is going to grow whether there is good soil or not.  So you have to feed the soil somehow. 

My neighbor is running the cattle on the hay fields now instead of letting them be over winter.  Then in the spring he is going to drag the meadows to break up all the poop.  The ranch next to me runs buffalo and they produce a massive amount of poop. He has brought in 10 side dumps of and covered it to try and speed up the decomposition.  

I have a ten acre pond that needs to be dredged out again.  It's the secret stash spot for silt when desperate times linger. 

In a normal year, he orders 50 tons of N.  That is a small fortune now. 

[newoodguy78]

@SawyerTed do you know how much of the surrounding area that plant supplies?

[chevytaHOE5674]

Yeah you can plant cover crops and you can seed in different species of grasses that fix different thing. But that all requires significant investment with often times marginal results. I have some ground that no matter what I try seeding (beans, oats, clover, SS, WW, the list goes on) it grows timothy and trefoil. So at some point don't fight what wants to grow there and feed it.

Add in rented ground with short term lease contracts it isn't economically feasible to break the sod and plant much for a perennial crop, because in 2 years it maybe someone elses.

My pastures recieve their fertilizer by unrolling hay in the winter and then intense rotational grazing. They grow real well. But the fact of life is most rented ground is hay only no livestock.

[mike_belben]

I just got offered some free acreage to grow on and am deeply contemplating how to go about an unknown future with limited resources. I definitely get it. 

[mike_belben]

50 bucks a scoop 

Keep it up and youll have that bigger tractor and car for the wife

[SawyerTed]

Looking at Weaver's website a couple of days ago, there were dealers from Raleigh NC west to the Tennessee line and from Charlotte north into the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.  That included area Lowes Home Improvement and a few other chains in addition to the mom and pop hardware stores.     

[Southside]

In many ways the discussion here is the same as fossil fuels vs renewables. It comes down to energy density. A ton of ammonium nitrate has a lot more potential energy than a ton of cow manure. We have come to a point where it's understood that food comes from the store and is sourced from a single farm running 1,000 acres. Energy density is required to make that possible. Now if 500 farmers were running two acres each, then a better way works very well.

Unless we experience a society shift, those dynamics are not going to change. 

[mike_belben]

With fertilizer unaffordable if its available at all, a shift is gonna be forced sooner than later.  

Just like EVs and solar. Ready or not here they are.


Anyone who can no longer afford the size of their conventional farm has gotta scale it back to manageable or go under.  Many are gonna go under and throw in the towel to subdeveloper offers.  

 Not much different than too many cows for the forage on hand. Trim the herd and survive or starve them and you.  Then when the land is too hammered to continue any longer.. Subdivision. 

[newoodguy78]

What would help the producers more than anything would be educating the general public on the amount of fertilizer and chemicals used for keeping lawns weed free and green. 
How that's gone about properly I have no idea. 
For a very long time Americans have enjoyed relatively cheap food and clothing. All you have to do is look at the percentage of income spent on these items compared to other countries. 
With prices and supply the way they are this really needs to be looked at , allow what is their to actually be used for something real not just aesthetics. 

Educating people and taking the time to answer their questions goes a long way towards opening their eyes. Every producer I know that produces a quality product and takes this time has no problem selling their goods. I'll openly admit I do not like that end of it but it's a must in my opinion. 

Food clothing and shelter are the three actual essentials that everyone of us needs. The other things are trivial when one of those is lost. We've all seen the rising cost of shelter. Their has to be a rise in the other two the elevated costs of production can not be absorbed, nor should they be. 
Cutting out commercial fertilizer and the use of chemicals all at once is not the answer it will not work. 
I'll make the bold statement that everyone reading this eats something everyday that was grown with it or eats a piece of meat that ate something it was used on. And while doing so most likely the clothes on their back are made from a fiber that was grown using fertilizer and sprays. 

[chevytaHOE5674]

I don't think the price will cause much of a shift at least for a while. The corn and beans guys will just push new hybrids and different fertilizer and chemical programs to push the yields higher and higher.

The cattle guys will do what they always have and trim here and there, streamline, etc to trim costs and squeak by. 

If the price of inputs stays high going forward that cost will get passed onto the consumer. When ground beef is $12 a lb at Walmart you'll know why.

[stavebuyer]

I disagree. People will start making different choices. People with plenty of money will buy $12 ground beef. Many will buy spam, tuna helper or fry some bologna because they have no choice. And when that doesn't work they will turn to spotlighting some backstraps.

[21incher]

I understand the new cannibis farms popping up all over will put additional  load on the fertilizer supply. Guess with  the profit margins cannabis obtains it could be a more profitable crop for farmers to help offset their rising fertilizer costs and keep farming  profitable if they adapt. 

[chevytaHOE5674]

The price of spam, tuna, and bologna will rise to keep pace.

I'm sure rural populations will shine for backstraps. But remember something like 82% of the population lives in an urban environment where wild game isn't present and growing their own food isn't possible.

As was pointed out above people in the US are spoiled with how cheap it is to eat. The percentage of income spent on food has been falling steady since the 50s. 

[mike_belben]

Yet the food prices have always risen.  I think the proportion statistic is a consequence of americans blowing all their money on unessential gadgets and toys and leisure stuff.  Or having EBT and not spending any of their budget on food.  

The food prices will climb for certain.  The non EBT working poor will just live on cheaper and cheaper and crappier food as they are priced off the stoop they were living on. 

Out here the really rotten ones moonlight for calves.  I only expect that to get worse.

[SwampDonkey]

Potato ground is pretty sterile, besides the weeds. You won't find much for earth worms in it. My garden has earth worms in every shovel full. You wouldn't believe the worms under raspberry canes, string beans and squash vines. ;D

[mike_belben]

All animals show up for dinner.  If you feed them theyll be there. If not they have no reason to be around.  It isnt a worms fault that mans agricultural practices deny him a meal. 

[Don P]

That worm is an invasive  

But I do take your point and eat taters grown in earth.

[SwampDonkey]

Well, we had glaciers up here, an effective eradicator. :D But, that is neither here nor there, the ones we have have naturalized here long before you and me came along. I'd reckon longer than a life time of a man. ;D

[mike_belben]

I recently discovered the genome of a worm is much more complicated than that of human.  Or maybe it was the DNA.  Something about worm was multitudes more complex than man.  

And that we are colonized by approx 37 trillion bacterial cells.  Which is 140ish times more than human cells. Its the missing link. 

[Don P]

A blueberry is more complicated than we are. God's way of saying "don't get uppity  :D"

[Tom King]

Speaking of worms, I know a guy that imported some worms from California to put in his compost pile.  They were doing pretty good until Racoons developed a taste for the fancy, imported compost worms.

[SwampDonkey]

I have coons in the summer and no shortage of worms. Turkeys around the garden to. Robins and woodcock enjoy them. ;D

[SwampDonkey]

Fertilizer in this area has gone from $700/tonne last year to $1350/tonne this year and are told there is enough supply this year. But they revealed that all fertilizer in the region for field crops comes from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. This is just another sign of weakness in the global system, where we have the resources to make our own, but because we can import cheaper we are sitting around and not correcting the issue. : Tariffs are $35% on Russian fertilizer that was already on the way before sanctions and not already in Canadian waters. And our leaders have us believe they are just hurting Russia. :D