Wake Up Call for Green Energy

[beenthere]

Cars and light trucks that burn petroleum will be banned in Quebec by 2035.

Time will tell, but I suspect it is just idle talk now. Any ban will be controlled more by the people who are in need of energy and modes of transportation. Will have to wait and see what our great grand kids have to say about that.
 8)

Wasn't but 60 years ago that the "scientists" were predicting another ice age about to happen (late 60's and early 70's).  Many want to just spread some fear, IMO.

[Ianab]

arth has always had cycles, and it's been warmer than it is now and conversely, cooler than we are now.  Anything falling into a historical range would be considered normal.   It's not the sudden change, but a change outside the historical range where nobody knows if it could survive as the problem

I can't see things getting to "un-survivable" temperatures, although some locations may get too hot to be liveable, and increased temperatures bring more violent storm system. But if we manage to melt the Antarctic ice, which has happened before, sea levels could rise by ~200 ft.   Now if that were to happen over 50,000 years, no big deal. People (and most animals) would move and adapt like they have in the past. Set up a banana farm in Greenland etc.  But if it happens over a couple of hundred, well we see the chaos a pesky virus can cause, imagine the chaos if whole cities (and even countries) had to be abandoned

Here's a map of the world with an extra 60m of water added. 
Flood Map: Elevation Map, Sea Level Rise Map

[snobdds]

arth has always had cycles, and it's been warmer than it is now and conversely, cooler than we are now.  Anything falling into a historical range would be considered normal.   It's not the sudden change, but a change outside the historical range where nobody knows if it could survive as the problem

I can't see things getting to "un-survivable" temperatures, although some locations may get too hot to be liveable, and increased temperatures bring more violent storm system. But if we manage to melt the Antarctic ice, which has happened before, sea levels could rise by ~200 ft.   Now if that were to happen over 50,000 years, no big deal. People (and most animals) would move and adapt like they have in the past. Set up a banana farm in Greenland etc.  But if it happens over a couple of hundred, well we see the chaos a pesky virus can cause, imagine the chaos if whole cities (and even countries) had to be abandoned

Here's a map of the world with an extra 60m of water added.
Flood Map: Elevation Map, Sea Level Rise Map

I feel like we have enough evidence at this point to understand that earth events do not happen in a vacuum.  Like the newton's 3rd law, every action has an equal and opposite reaction.  The artic for example, it had a few years where temps went up and melted a lot of glaciers.  That extra water put more moisture in the atmosphere and created some epic storms in Alaska this past winter.  I have friends in Alaska where I snowboard that said they never saw a more sever winter than last year.  Snow never fully melted all summer from the prior winter.  Earth climate works in cycles and I think it's crazy to want to keep the climate the same year after year. 
The only climate change I worry about is that big nuclear reactor in the sky.  If for some reason that fails to shine, then were in trouble and that is a real climate threat.  Sun is life and as long as it shines, we're good. 

[beenthere]

Sun is life and as long as it shines, we're good.

And if it doesn't, we're gone.   For sure, nothing to worry about.  :D :D

[snobdds]

Sun is life and as long as it shines, we're good.

And if it doesn't, we're gone.   For sure, nothing to worry about.  :D :D

Our sun at some point will die and turn into a giant red star that will consume earth.  At that point the nuclear reactor is gone and so is our galaxy. 

[SwampDonkey]

Cars and light trucks that burn petroleum will be banned in Quebec by 2035.

Time will tell, but I suspect it is just idle talk now. Any ban will be controlled more by the people who are in need of energy and modes of transportation. Will have to wait and see what our great grand kids have to say about that.
 8)

All it takes is another election cycle to change gears. :D

[Mooseherder]

All the Alaska Shows are saying the past Winter was brutal and extremely long.  The previous season they were concerned because it was warmer.  The sun wobbled back.  It's a Parallel World.  Who's on first?

[SwampDonkey]

Yeah, I follow an Alaska couple up there. Trouble is, they have not been there more than 4 years. Not a lot of experience with the cycles in extremes up there. :D

[Gary_C]

The energy crisis in Germany is becoming front and center for this winter. The Germans are even taking "Blackout Courses" to learn how to survive.

Germans Attend 'Blackout Courses' as Energy Crisis Worsens Ahead of Christmas 

Is the new green climate agenda going to survive this winter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue7wM0QC5LE

[brianJ]

 8)

Wasn't but 60 years ago that the "scientists" were predicting another ice age about to happen (late 60's and early 70's).  Many want to just spread some fear, IMO

IMO spreading fear is more about the ratings and the ad dollars attached to them than the 'purposely' want to spread fear.   The other two powerful emotions that draw in ratings are disgust and outrage.   If any of these three emotions are being provoked you know you are being lied to.

[jake pogg]

All the Alaska Shows are saying the past Winter was brutal and extremely long.  The previous season they were concerned because it was warmer.  The sun wobbled back.  It's a Parallel World.  Who's on first?

I moved to Alaska in 1986,and have barely been away from here since (a handful of weeks at most in all this time).
For nearly 30 years of this i live in the Western Interior portion of the State,normally a very dry and cold region,very typical for the Alaska of romantic literature.
The winters are decidedly warmer and warmer,we've barely seen Any days of -40F for Many years now,whereas even in my time weeks and weeks of -50F and many consequitive days of -60F and lower used to be the norm.
I live in a Native village where this sort of casual observation goes back many generations,so my impression of how relatively warm or cold a winter is bases itself on a fairly wide and broad consensus...
Please disregard anything and everything you may glean from the "Alaska shows" as remotely factual.
These reality shows have the worst possible reputation locally,they're considered absolutely awful and sad. Those participating in these are viewed with pity and disdain, they'll themselves will be the first to tell you to disregard any and all interpretable info or data,and the only reason that some of the locals participate is solely for the money these shows offer.
Alaska IS warming up radically,the water temperature in the Yukon r. where i fish have risen over 10 deg.F. The satellite images of the tundra lakes everywhere tell a stark story,their contours diminish visibly every year as the underlying permafrost is melting and the water is getting absorbed.
As a builder even i can vouch for both the soil conditions and the air temperatures and many other factors are changing so rapidly that it makes a difference and forces changes in approach to building this far north...And so on and so forth too many factors all confirming the same trend,and NO chance for any kind of doubt anymore.

[stavebuyer]

My current electric bill for my vacant office at my old log yard. 146 KW of usage($14.06) now costs $43.09
People who rely on electricity are screwed.

They won't ration it; they will just jack up the cost so you will. 



 

[doc henderson]

I am a scientist and have not seen any compelling evidence of climate emergency.  the life of the planet relative to our short time here is infinite.  seeing a change in your own lifetime would not even make a blip on the scale of the earth.  I am surprised folks are not commenting "It sure is hot this afternoon and was cool this morning".  variation and trends over time is normal.  much of the energy grief/emergency/higher cost is due to politicians pushing the green agenda.  self-fulfilling prophecy.  how does it make less CO2 to have our fossil fuels "shipped" from other parts of the world.  

[Southside]

I think that great big nuclear reactor in the sky that is how many times larger than our rock impacts climate in ways it's not politically correct to discuss.

Just look at the temperature difference between day and night, now imagine we are 1 mile closer or further away due to orbit fluctuations, size of the sun, tilt angle, output intensity and how many things are going to be impacted?

Land on the sun, tell me exactly what is happening, account for all of those variables, account for Earths magnet field and pole shift, our orbit and it's changes, volcanoes, etc. then get back to me and explain how my cows impact the temperature in Europe and me paying more taxes fixes it all.

Until then, I am not buying it at all. 

[sharp edge]

Problem solved, just have shorter lifetimes. 8) 8) 8)

SE

[jake pogg]

I am a scientist and have not seen any compelling evidence of climate emergency.  the life of the planet relative to our short time here is infinite.  seeing a change in your own lifetime would not even make a blip on the scale of the earth.  I am surprised folks are not commenting "It sure is hot this afternoon and was cool this morning".  variation and trends over time is normal.  much of the energy grief/emergency/higher cost is due to politicians pushing the green agenda.  self-fulfilling prophecy.  how does it make less CO2 to have our fossil fuels "shipped" from other parts of the world.  

Maybe you're the kind of scientist that studies who pushes what agenda and for what nefarious reasons...I dunno,i haven't graduated high school myself and am not a judge of scientists (or political agendas).
However,as a subsistence fisherman i can say with 100% certainty that all the Pacific salmon runs are now dead in the Yukon river (the 5th largest in N. America),as of 3 years ago.
As a logger and a user of river in ways many and sundry i can also assure you that changes to water-levels and the dynamics of what the banks are doing are Way beyond precedented (going by the dendrochronological record that i believe extends now a bit beyond 1600 years,as well as ethnographic data that also corroborates it).
The changes are recent,they're severe,and most definitely have a powerful influence on everyone who's not sitting on their duff in an electrified and oil-heated space worrying about "politics" and "prophesies".
Anthropogenic or not is Way outside my competence and that's a fact,but a "scientist" that takes such a categorical view on such a complex matter seems suspect even to an uneducated dolt such as meself.
Nothing personal,just sayin'.

[B.C.C. Lapp]

I agree with Doc Henderson.  When I was in school in the 70ies the science said another ice age was coming.  Now they say nope, its warming.  I don't think they really can know.

We haven't been keeping records long enough to know much of how and why the climate changes happen.  We do know they HAVE always been changing and likely always will.   The idea that any climate change is man made or caused is laughable.   One volcano, or even one huge forest fire puts more gas and dust into the air than every internal combustion engine ever run since we started fooling with them.    

Green energy just aint gonna cut it any time soon.

[doc henderson]

Jake, I have no doubt you know lots of stuff.  I was not trying brag but point out I have seen no evidence but heard a lot of politicians with an agenda.  How will we know what to trust vs be fooled by politicians.  remember Jimmy Carter and the 55-mph speed limit.  Remember I just said I have not seen this evidence that is uncontrovertible.  It is more like if you do not believe without question, you will be shamed and ridiculed.  In the life of the world, we are but a speck.  I am also not sure that the green new deal will not harm more people and more environmental issues.  Unintended consequences.  Other countries are still using diesel trucks to mine for materials to make wire and batteries.  Reportedly using child and slave labor.  I do not know first-hand.  The idea that the world will end if we do not consider this an emergency is part of what is making people suffer this winter.  We are decades away from being sufficient at renewable energy.  trees are a renewable resource, but not if everyone started burning wood for heat.  there are not enough materials available to make an electric car for everyone.  and if we did the electricity is still made by coal, NG, Nuclear, some water and solar.  you cannot save the world by moving the behavior to another part of the world.  I believe in being smart about resources.  Forcing people to follow a few people's ideas about the environment is unreasonable.  I agree it is complex.  i did not say that there is no truth to some of the concerns.  I did say I have never seen or heard this elusive incontrovertible evidence.  We should all do our part, which is more than I can say for the leaders that fly around the world telling everyone the sky is falling.

[beenthere]

I remember when:


 

[jake pogg]

The world around us is so complex that no one can claim to actually "know" which side is up.
It's no more presumptive to say that the world is ending because of our conspicuous consumption of hydrocarbons than the opposite...
Scientists' job,so i was always led to believe is not to issue a verdict but to impartially consider what data is available for whatever subject,see definition of "scientific inquiry" et c...

Whosoever uses any product of scientific process for their nefarious purposes is of course out of line,that's just kinda one of the basic building blocks of what makes a decent human being,to not pull that crap and should go without saying.

Having all that out of the way we humans are pretty bright in an instinctive sort of way,we Do have a sense of what's what,however intuitive and hazy.

This country,the USA,had began from and to a large degree still espouses what can roughly be termed "Quakerism", where ostentation of any kind was strongly frowned upon.
A natural enough attitude,most of us would not be proud of ourselves if we commit an obvious "waste" of whatever resource.

Petroleum and the energy contained in it is downright "magic",they say that it compares to the physical energy our muscles generate as 1:10 000 (used in an internal combustion engine).

Using it in an arguably wasteful manner that we have been gives many the heebie-jeebies,as did/does lots of stuff that we see going on around us,like (for me at least) was using all those magnificent Doug firs in the PNW in a ridiculous disposable manner and so on.

I just happen to live far enough north where the effects of the climate change are most noticeable (again,with the "naked eye",science being secondary to observing it in real time). 

I don't see anything strange or unnatural in that so many people believe in whatever degree alarming findings of science climate-wise. Yes,there's a nasty exploitive political bend on both sides of the issue,but it don't cancel out the gut-feeling that the people react to it with. We're certainly cavalier with our resources,and the climate Is heating up,the further towards the Poles the more obviously.
(Look at the ice situation in both N.E. and N.W. Passages,a hundred years ago impassable and today have close on a steady navigation throughout).

All change maybe begins with  worrying about the consequences of over-using the resource.
When i lived in the woods year-round gasoline for pressurized lanterns was our biggest expenditure,5-6 gallons a month,affording and hauling it was a real hardship.
Then a small Honda OHV genset+battery+LED lights suddenly reduced it to 1 gallon. Then a small PV panel made it pretty much Zero.
A huge difference in my short/nasty/brutish life.

Science,inventiveness,responsible stewardship of surrounding resources-don't knock it,don't help the detractors who by definition are as heinous as the alarmists,both being essentially Un-scientific,bias is not good science...  

[barbender]

jake pogg,

I'm really not even sure what you are trying to say. You say the world is too complex to know what side is up, but then it seems you are telling us, what is up. 

I don't doubt the changes you're seeing on the ground for a second. Is it the result of human fossil fuel use? I don't know. I have no way of knowing, all I can do is listen to the scientists that should know...but I don't trust most of them. I don't trust them because of the tendency many of them have to drift from scientific facts to political biases. We all had a front row seat to watch country's "finest" disease scientists over the past couple of years with the Covid situation. I was not impressed with their performance.

[btulloh]

Not long ago it was observed by everyone that the earth was flat. Scientists (and science) of the era confirmed that this was true.  There is a difference between fact and belief. Belief is comfortable though, especially if it's reinforced constantly.  Climate change is and has always been occurring and the rate of change also varies. 

Follow the money is still a relevant concept.  Now and from the dawn of man.

[barbender]

The money has always been a very powerful motivator. 

It is hard to take world leaders seriously when they say we are facing a climate emergency, when their private jets are directly contributing to it in a big way- going by the information that they spew. 

[Ianab]

We haven't been keeping records long enough to know much of how and why the climate changes happen

While true, there are historical records of CO2 levels dating back a LONG time (Ice cores in Antarctic glaciers etc). Historically (last million years) this has varied from about 170ppm (ice age) to 300 ppm (Not an ice age). It's currently over 400 ppm, which hasn't happened for the last million years. This is a man made change, and has occurred very fast in geological time. 

We know that all sorts of things can change the climate, volcanoes, suns output etc, and obviously the climate HAS changed in the past (and will change in the future). It's the speed that it could change that's the issue.  Thinking that the CO2 level practically doubling from the historical average, over the last ~100 year will have zero effect, now that is wishful thinking. 

We assume we can't see the changes. But that doesn't mean they aren't there. This is Tasman lake, photo taken a few years back. In 1970 this lake didn't exist. It's now about 4 miles to the glacier terminus (the dark band by Lil's shoulder. Glaciers aren't affected by weather, they are affected by the climate over decades or longer. When you can actually SEE the effect you have to wonder if something is going on.  I think there are old pics at mum's house taken when I was the kids age. There was no lake.... 



And NASA image comparison from 1990 to 2017
Tasman Glacier Retreats
 

[jake pogg]

jake pogg,

I'm really not even sure what you are trying to say. You say the world is too complex to know what side is up, but then it seems you are telling us, what is up.

I don't doubt the changes you're seeing on the ground for a second. Is it the result of human fossil fuel use? I don't know. I have no way of knowing, all I can do is listen to the scientists that should know...but I don't trust most of them. I don't trust them because of the tendency many of them have to drift from scientific facts to political biases. We all had a front row seat to watch country's "finest" disease scientists over the past couple of years with the Covid situation. I was not impressed with their performance.

I'm too dumb to properly use the "quote" function so will try to not make it too confusing...
"Trust" is a tricky deal when it comes to something way outside one's expertise.
For example i'm not an M.D. What do i (can i) make of a doctor's advice?
Where myself solely is concerned it's a bit easier,i live like an animal and pull my own teeth and will die like one(stupidly and unnecessarily and good riddance),but what about someone else that may depend on me? (i've had a number of anus-clenching adventures taking my own kid as well as a neighbor to get medical help in spite of my own attitude towards the business).
Similarly with Covid epidemic. I live in an unaccessible part of the state with no road connecting us to anywhere.
The population is predominantly Native,everyone remembers only too well how just about 100 years ago the period between 1900 and 1920 was one continuous series of epidemics,typhus,diphteria,measles et c. That period is known as the Great Death,and no one knows just how many died,the concervative estimate is about 2/5ths of population.
So during Covid most remote villages including mine were shut down tight,and vaccinated early and thoroughly.
Science worked,there were very few losses,and no adverse effects from vaccinations. 
I don't know just how harmful fossil fuel usage by humans is, Can't know it or certain.
But it's been brought up,and in fairness i can no easier discard it wholesale than i can buy into it ditto,so says the common sense that i'm born with (cain't help that).
None of us are stupid,we all know that some information sources are more reliable than others.
The Time magazine covers posted above are a silly example,i'd not take a general publication like that seriously on a subject like that.
But many vastly more responsible sources speak otherwise,among those many scientists that are very careful to steer clear of anything sensational or political. What's worse is that the data coming from many very different disciplines often seconds that from an unrelated field.
To a non-scientist any technical data must be necessarily in a  popularised/dumbed-down format,and it's up to us to try to remain impartial and selective of our sources and it ain't easy.
In the late '80-ies i worked the winter on the North Slope,where the continent ends and you're looking over the Beufort Sea towards the Arctic ice. There's a wide dirty-brown band over the horizon,360 deg. around ya. (they say worse than LA,but never been to see that myself).
Pollution they say concentrates around both poles,and it sure appeared to be some filthy stuff,and lots of it,and it's doubtful that it was generated locally.
Again,from where i'm looking from i just can't dismiss it.