Wake Up Call for Green Energy

[doc henderson]

the problem I have with the "argument", is that one side claims to have already won the argument.  "Unconvertable evidence".  that is what I hear, not the actual evidence.  So you go to a college with Left leaning professors.  You get a liberal arts degree say in political science (as an example).  one of the requirements is satisfied by taking an ethics course.  to teach ethics, they choose climate as a topic for an exercise to learn from.  they leave the class not understanding ethics, but think they are a climate geniuses.  They cannot get a job with their degree so they go into "public service" (government job) or politics.  they then shout down anyone who dare have a different view or caution "not to throw the baby out with the bath water".  If you want to move slow on wind and solar, and not have it subsidized by our tax dollars, you must hate humanity.  attacking the person who asks a question.  think cancel culture and wokeness.  It used to be called political correctness, but that made it sound like "not a good idea".  And in my opinion it is not!  to be clear this is not directed at anyone here on the forum, but to the political climate.  I apologize for brushing the edge of politics here.  If I crossed the line, admin. can delete my post.

[Southside]

I read it as a definition / explanation, no need for it to go. 

[doc henderson]

Thanks

[Hilltop366]

Here is a up side to electric vehicles. My BIL got a Ford lighting recently, he will drive to the city for work one or two times a week which is 400 miles round trip says it cost him $12 to $14 dollars return trip which is a fraction of the cost that his chev 1500 with a 6.2 was, He figures that he will save enough in 4 years to pay for the truck.

[Jeff]

So who is paying the electric bill on the recharges??

[Hilltop366]

He does, he has a plug at his business and is getting one put in at home were he will be able to charge it for less at night. He will also put in a plug at his daughters in the city as sometimes he stays there for several days otherwise i believe the truck has enough range to make the return trip. 

[SwampDonkey]

EV's will be paying road taxes, possibly extra for annual registration, what ever it takes to make up shortfalls in infrastructure revenue. It's already being discussed in various jurisdictions. I would only consider current savings as breathing room to develop the EV market. It's only a matter of time ,and not very far off either. As they say, enjoy it while it lasts. One positive from it will be no weekly fluctuations in energy prices like on gas, but then again how certain can we be of that? :D

And again,  'clean energy' is only measured by not emitting CO2 from the tail pipe. Ignores all the CO2 to get it to market. Which studies show it would take 280,000 miles on a 400 mile range vehicle to overcome CO2 penalties during manufacture in comparison to a gas powered vehicle.

[Hilltop366]

Electricity is much more stable than gas but it is always going up a bit at a time, on the other hand it would be easier and cheaper to make your own electricity than gas for the DIYer.

[SwampDonkey]

Theoretically you can generate it. Cheaper? There's some coin to be spent on infrastructure to do it and maintenance, ideal weather (sun, wind), and how long do you want to wait for the charge. The quicker to charge the more money to make it happen.

[Hilltop366]

Cheaper than making gas.  I don't see many mini refineries out there although some burn fryer oil but that is a pretty limited supply of raw product and vehicles that can use it.

[sharp edge]

I give up Donkey, are the polar caps melting or not? would think height or just volume would have something to do with it to.

SE

[SwampDonkey]

I'm comparing with gas someone else already provides with their refineries and deliveries. Obviously we have to have our own source to even refine it. Wind and solar depends on weather to deliver to your yard. But it has to be captured by some sort of infrastructure.

Ultimately, the government will always have a way to get your contribution to use the roads and bridges.

[SwampDonkey]

I give up Donkey, are the polar caps melting or not? would think height or just volume would have something to do with it to.

SE

Polar caps fluctuate, some areas add volume others loose. All tied to seasons and weather of course, which is always in flux. Some of the deepest ice on Greenland is over 2 miles thick. To get an idea on volume change I think we need more than a handful of cores. I think we need to stratify the locations we sample and randomize the locations to sample. Right now I'm not sure that samples come from more than just a couple stratum, the coldest interior regions of polar ice sheets.
The maps I showed only indicate sea ice changes compared to a 30 year median. You can see huge flux in coverage during July between 79 and 81 with more ice in 81, and 2022 is more than in '79. Ice is going to melt quicker from the southern edges and at lower elevations versus on top of an ice mountain at points north of there.

[Walnut Beast]

It's amazing they are pushing the new electric cars of new unveiled models from different manufacturers that are no where to be found and for as many gas stations as we have and electric cars needing charged where is all the infrastructure for them 

[Hilltop366]

Shouldn't need as many charge stations as there are gas pumps, most people with shorter commutes will charge their car at home however there will need to be more than there is now.

I'm betting that the convenience / gas pump companies already have a plan if they still want to sell junk food, coffee and lots tickets.

[Hilltop366]

It will also be easy to put charge stations at other places like malls, hotels, work....

[Southside]

Lot of folks in cities have road side parking only, city owns the sidewalk between their land and the road. That would be a legal nightmare to set up charging stations. 

Work and other places don't have 1,000's of spare amps available for employees to plug in. Upgrade transformers to the business, lines, entrances, distribution panels, trench parking lots, maintenance of the chargers. You can bet if I own a business and I am providing a plug in location I will make a profit on both my capital investment and the juice consumed. 

Easy it won't be for sure. 

[doc henderson]

I am sure everyone will just let you set there and charge up for free... in the dreams of the folks that think this will happen in a few years.  We do not have enough wire, let alone battery components.  I would get the truck so I can haul my gas or diesel generator with me.  wait, maybe i should just drive a vehicle powered by those in the first place.  Maybe in 20 or 30 years.  we still need someone with diesel trucks and equipment to do the mining and transport of materials.  and smelting of ore.  Best to do that in other countries, as it is not like the CO2 and all the toxic gases can circle the earth... well I guess they can.  At least all the children in other countries are learning trades.  sorry for the sarcasm.  Listening to AOC is not thinking.  

[doc henderson]

On our recent trip there would be 40 cars in a loves truck stop trying to fuel up.  we half the time filled in the truck line, so we did not have to wait.  if 40 cars were filling with a fast charge (do not know the time or amps) Hundreds of cars would pile up and would need a big transformer station there on site.  I guess the real hope is we all go back to one vehicle and only go to work and home.  Not enough mass transit or air capacity either.  of course, jets use fuel as well.  

[nativewolf]

Was CA telling its citizens not to charge electric vehicles?  Or not to charge them at times of high demand?  There is a big difference.

An electric vehicle that doesn't use it's full range every day could be part of the solution.  They can be charged at times of day when demand is lowest then backfeed that power to the house or grid when demand is high while hanging on to enough charge to cover much more than the driver uses on a typical day.  That way even though the house is using the same amount of energy it is able to shift almost all of it's consumption to times of lowest demand and none durring peek hours.

Not to charge them at the peak demand because...wait for it...the grid is a mess and they also tell people to stop running ACs and not to wash clothes.  It was a big nothing burger and the OP is making much ado about nothing.
Our grids are a mess.  So they will get stronger.  Power will be very distributed and grid management will take on a new role as pipeline management declines in importance.  Our pipelines fail all the time and last year one failed on the east coast and thousands could not drive (hundreds of thousands).  I could go on but the only point here is that power systems are integrated and break.  Petro or electric.  You want to be independent.  make your own power.

[nativewolf]

On our recent trip there would be 40 cars in a loves truck stop trying to fuel up.  we half the time filled in the truck line, so we did not have to wait.  if 40 cars were filling with a fast charge (do not know the time or amps) Hundreds of cars would pile up and would need a big transformer station there on site.  I guess the real hope is we all go back to one vehicle and only go to work and home.  Not enough mass transit or air capacity either.  of course, jets use fuel as well.  

The larger charging stations are up to 100 stalls, avg charge time is 15 mins.  On holidays they are completely full all day.  About 7000 cars charged in 1 day at the one station.  That's pretty abnormal and really only with Teslas at this point but it won't be that unusual in 4 years.  They have over 100k charging ports setup so far and they are expanding in the number of plug in spots and the voltage (super fast chargers are 350volts), lots of juice.  
Levelized costs of solar continue to plunge and in 3 years will be approaching 0.  At that point the solar farms really need to have battery capacity to shift power to non peak generation periods because the farms will all be fighting over demand.  If they are competing with fossil fuels they'll suck all the market away between 9am and 5pm and with that will go the ability of the fossil plants to stay in business which is a huge risk for the grid.  For some time we'll have very inefficient fossil fuel plants staying open to provide power between peak solar and peak wind.  At some point the battery capacity comes online to allow the farms to shift power and then the fossil fuel plants will close.  
The less the govt intervenes in that process the better for all.  The market can figure it out.  

[nativewolf]

You can go on sites like plugshare and see where the charging stations are if you are curious.  54,000 charging station locations so far.  Lot less than gas stations at 140k but most of that is in 10 years.  Then again, most homes can support home charging.

go to plugshare.com and look at your hometown to see if there is a charging station nearby.

[Southside]

Just last week there was an article that said how many KW a charging station will need, basically it's the same amount of juice as a small town.  Ever driven north of Salt Lake City and seen the new power lines that were put in for the NSA facility south of the city?  Just picture that all over the place.  It's not going to happen.  

[Ianab]

if 40 cars were filling with a fast charge

A by far larger % of electric car owners charge at home, it's generally a cheaper rate than the commercial chargers. They may rely on public fast chargers if they are making a longer trip, but day to day driving relies on an overnight home charger. I think the nearest public charging is ~30 miles from here, but several people own electric cars. (Tesla and Leaf etc). Lil's friend lives a ways South of us, and has a ~100 mile round trip commute. The Tesla can easily do it twice on a full charge, but it gets topped up at home each night, so seldom gets below 50%. Even if he did extra driving and got home with ~10%, it would be recharged enough to get to work and back next day. So I don't know if he's ever used a fast charger?

It's a mind shift, that you don't normally need to go to a station to "refuel". They are there so you can drive more than x00 miles. 

Of course changes in power usage and generation are going to need changes (upgrades) to the grid. That's always been the case. But those are technical problems, with technical solutions. I know Cali for example was having issues with home solar panels sometimes producing more power than the local grid was able to distribute. Again a technical problem, that's fixed with some new transformers and switchgear. That stuff gets replaced and upgraded from time to time anyway, it's not like it all needs to ripped out and replaced in the next year. 

Texas grid problems was another example. There was some finger pointing at the wind turbines, but they hadn't been expecting much wind power at that time. It was the natural gas fired stations that actually let them down. Some control systems froze up and shut down stations. That caused some gas fields to lose power and hence shut down, taking down other gas power stations. But again those are technical problems. Their system wasn't designed for the sub-zero temperatures, and it costs money to cold proof and install backup power generation. 

[Southside]

Well as to the technical problem of transformers and such, I was told there is a 54 week wait for transformers on new 3 phase installations right now when I looked to add power to the mill shed, that's without trying to add all these new stations.  You think copper is expensive now?  How many battles happen every time a utility tries to put in a new transmission line?  There has been a war over CMP bringing hydro power from Quebec, along side existing lines, for YEARS now and the end is nowhere in sight.  The EV driving NIMBYS are not going to go quietly into that dark night, unless they are out of juice in there EV of course.