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Wake Up Call for Green Energy

Started by Gary_C, September 05, 2022, 03:11:20 PM

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SwampDonkey

"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Stephen1

And so it begins.......
I listened today as the battery plant in Windsor Ontario is going import 1600 workers from South Korea. According to the CEO, there is not enough skilled labour in Ontario, or Canada to do the jobs. 
So all our hard earned tax dollars get to go to S. Korea. Sounds like a great idea to a simple minded individual like me. 
IDRY Vacum Kiln, LT40HDWide, BMS250 sharpener/setter 742b Bobcat, TCM forklift, Sthil 026,038, 461. 1952 TEA Fergusan Tractor

Old Greenhorn

Quote from: Stephen1 on November 21, 2023, 07:24:01 PM
....
I listened today as the battery plant in Windsor Ontario is going import 1600 workers from South Korea. According to the CEO, there is not enough skilled labour in Ontario, or Canada to do the jobs........
Oh, that is such BS. This is corporates speak, and translated it means "We cannot find people here that will work for the minimal wages we would want to pay so we can maximize our profits at their expense, not do we care to spend ANY money to train them to meet the job requirements, lest they use those skills to get a decent paying job."
Tom Lindtveit, Woodsman Forest Products
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OK, maybe I'm the woodcutter now.
I work with wood, There is a rumor I might be a woodworker.

Stephen1

IDRY Vacum Kiln, LT40HDWide, BMS250 sharpener/setter 742b Bobcat, TCM forklift, Sthil 026,038, 461. 1952 TEA Fergusan Tractor

Al_Smith

Historically things come and go .From mules and horses to steam engines making for unemployed black smiths .Steam engines fired on coal to internal combustion engines and the great oil booms of decades ago .Now the trend seems to be battery powered equipment with wind power for generation to keep the batteries charged .Who knows what might be next ,back to horses maybe ?Try as you might and belly ache about it you'll never be able to change it once it gets a toe hold .I'm ahead of the game with two battery golf carts .Not real fast but they always start if I remember to keep the batteries charged . 

doc henderson

Al, I am not sure it really has a toe hold yet.  However, with the weight of the Fed. behind it, I am sure it will not be going away, no matter what it costs all of us.
Timber king 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor powered by a 12 volt tarp motor

nativewolf

Europe is in the process of banning ICE, the best selling cars in many countries are EVs.  In California - where trends start and move, the model Y- Tesla, is the best selling car.  That was with no incentives until the Fed got involved again.  In California Tesla is often the leading manufacturer in a given month, splitting time with Toyota.  In northern VA I can't drive without seeing a Tesla or Hyundai or Bolt.  4 clients own them.  My newest client in WV has meetings and there are always Bolts and Teslas and yesterday I saw a Rivian (sort of a Range Rover of EVs).  

There are 3 million EVs on the road in the USA now.  Charging all of them has become much easier as Tesla opened its huge charging system to everyone.  That's a big deal for people making long distance trips as Tesla had put a lot of thought into what to do and how to do it.  12% of all cars sold in the USA are sold in California. 

The battery plants that come online in the next couple of years will be churning out battery packs that will be partnered with solar and wind power and supplying packs for EV airplanes and cars.  In terms of costs nothing beats solar for levelized costs, the cost of the facility over time and the energy it produces, solar went up in 2023 but then so did everything, it will crash next year.  There is virtually no maint, efficiency rates just keep going up, and there is no fuel costs- we are moving nuclear fusion through silicon into our grid.  This is the same source of energy as everything else on the world with the possible exception of nuke fission; basically all energy we use is from the sun.  We'll move to solar with or without the Fed's involvement because it is more efficient it may take a few years longer, it may mean factories are built here and Mexico or Vietnam, India and China, the solutions will move though and long term cost/watt pricing has a very clear downward trend, it will plummet this winter as price cuts are being put in place due to over capacity in Vietnam and China.  In some places wind helps out too, so much so that at night in Texas the price of power becomes negative on many summer nights.  Levelized costs strip out all the subsidies (coal, solar, wind, nuke, gas all have subsidies) and just look at the numbers.  

I agree with Al, things change.  This is a pretty extraordinary and very hopeful change and it's happening.  Enjoy it, same thing happened with computers 40 years ago.  For people like yourself and many members they will be able to standup their own powerstation at their home just like you were able to bring a computer into your home (and now hand) that previously only fit in a basement of a University building and required punch cards.  Solar is going to give you something you could never do with petro based solutions- be energy independent.  The solutions being built today are really cool- it is a diverse set of solutions that are beating each other up, free market is doing a great job.    Iron air batteries- first discovered in the 1920s, finally coming to market at scale (Form Energy is a great example).  Saltwater batteries, semi sold state batteries, super high density solid state batteries.  It is an absolutely amazing time to be an innovator and investor in that space.  Not surprisingly even the most conservative auto companies are making plays (Toyota is the worlds most conservative auto company).  
Liking Walnut

Southside

Home based, energy independence is not going to happen at scale, the cabal won't let that occur.  The same though process surrounded the legalization of hemp and pot, all the small guys could really make a killing suddenly, big tobacco had other plans and basically said "hold my beer", now the innovative California pot industry is about to go bust.  
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Al_Smith

Technology evolves .For examle something as simple as a storage battery .Not so long ago it might take 4 six volt batteries each weighing over 60 pounds to start a diesel semi truck engine .Now you can do it with  a device the size of a small alarm clock .Fact I've got one and it works great plus it only set me back around $60 .Cheap insurance the way I look at it .I've even got a little tiny battery chainsaw that has came in very handle for small jobs .While at the same time have some of the largest  old gasoline saws ever made  that have been used for gigantic redwoods on the left coast .Those BTW should last a dozen life times no more use than they get .
Saying that the technology changes so fast it's nearly impossible to keep up with it .The last 15 or so years before I retired my work was robotics and high speed CNC machinery .I've seen three electricians and two controls engineers all lost in space for a time being trying to trouble shoot a problem .We always did however frustrating as it was .Makes my head hurt just to think about it .

SwampDonkey

Stuff changes for sure, it happens rapidly in spots and others it's years out. Then lots fail to. The numbers of sales on EV's isn't very exciting in these parts. I never see one being driven. I see a photo or a video someone posts, from who knows where. Definitely not here. Only guys (2) with solar around here live in shacks, one just burnt to the ground yesterday.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Hilltop366

I drove my BIL's ford lightning a few weeks ago, very nice. It's quiet at lower speeds a bit quieter at highway speed because of the tire and wind noise, It handles nice likely because of the low centre of gravity.

He still likes it and enjoys the lower cost of operation.  If I recall correctly it has 42000 km (26000) miles on it he spent a bit under $1000 in electricity so about 10% of what his last truck (GMC ½ ton 4x4 with 6.2) would cost and had 1 service where they checked it over but only topped off the windshield washer so saved another 1000 in oil changes. So if he keeps it long enough to put 10 times the miles on it without major issues it will have saved nearly enough to pay for itself. His last two trucks (bought new) had well over 300000 kms on them and he spent more on fuel than the truck cost.


jb616

The problem with the Lightning (if the Youtube videos are correct):) is that if i tow an 18 ft. boat with it, i only get less than 100 miles of range. My POV is that trucks are made to haul things...If those numbers are true, I'm out. 

rusticretreater

In the news recently was Ford's announcement that they will change their plans on their new battery factory, a reduction of production output of 43%.  Ford has also lost $4.5 billion over the last year in the electric vehicle division.  Model e's is what they call the division.  So $6.6 billion loss so far.  Ford Motor Company is also partnering with the world's largest battery company, a China-based company called Contemporary Am.  Great leadership there.

QuoteThe projected $4.5 billion loss is over twice as much as Model e's $2.1 billion loss in 2022. The company recently announced that the price of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup trucks will be reduced due to cheaper raw battery materials.
Ford also cut a shift at their Lightning PU factory.  A Swedish company Volta Trucks went bankrupt.  For every success story there is a lot of bad news.  According to one article, the biggest problem is that nearly all the folks who want an EV have bought one, so there is no market demand.

QuoteGM, along with Ford, is slowing its EV plans as demand softens, competition heats up and prices drop. Last week, GM said it would delay the production start of electric trucks, including the Chevy Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV, from 2024 until late 2025 at its Orion Assembly plant in Michigan.
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SwampDonkey

GM is not doing any better either. You can only bleed for so long.

But what's the difference when it's tax money, feeding the Canadian press $30,000 per employee to stay afloat or a few thou for an auto worker. Might as well admit government feeds it all. :D

Most recent disclosure in Canada is $8M for a solar powered 4 door federal government garage. The structure looked like an above ground bunker with a paneled roof. Who are these people afraid of?  ::)
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Mooseherder

I bought a little Ford stock about 15 years ago.  It's not enough for life changing purchases. :D
It's worth about 2/3 of what I paid for it.  Every time it gets to getting even it goes right back down to half of the purchase price.   It's a great dividend stock though.  One of the best.  I hope Ford thrives with whatever they build.  There's a video going around with a question caption,  how do you know when you got a full charge?
then the car blows up and a seat ricochets of a wall and demolishes a guy standing in the next bay.
hopefully that'll get straightened out.  In a recent EV summit at our WH.  A few months ago politics didn't invite Elon.   Really,  if that doesn't say it all.  There's a division narrative from government not anyone else. 

doc henderson

I do not know where to get info that is not biased.  I believe most of the energy is still carbon based.  coal, oil, NG.  so, all the electricity has pre-emitted carbon dioxide, so do not be so glib.  I do not think there are enough raw materials to build a grid, and enough EV cars even if every American wanted one.  not to mention if a family of four like ours, needs one for each member.  All the mining in other countries is also burning up gobs of hydrocarbons.  How do they refine all the ore for silver, tin and only God knows what else.  Need energy and the most abundant especial in poor countries is petroleum.  Everyone seems to be green but ignoring where the energy comes from and how we get all the materials.  I will be fine buying an EV when things are more figured out, say in 40 years.  If you want one now, go for it.  Do not take away my way of life.  My truck pollutes very little compared to the forced machine pushing the EV as not using petrol.  I doubt the batteries will work in the cheap chainsaw in 10 years, and folks will just buy a new cheap saw.  Waste.
Timber king 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor powered by a 12 volt tarp motor

stavebuyer

I know my electric bill has sure changed to the tune of 50% added on the top for fuel adjustments and environmental sur-charges. Few will be able to afford to charge the electric vehicles once the dust settles on the green initiatives but maybe that's all part of the plan.

doc henderson

the mining of rare earth minerals is too dirty, and EPA has shut it down in this country.  I thought to save the whole earth was the mission.  It is like illegal immigrants.  All the folks on Marthas Vineyard are for folks to just pour in, until 50 or so show up in their neighborhood.
Timber king 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor powered by a 12 volt tarp motor

stavebuyer

I remember one episode of MASH 4077th where they were in an extreme cold snap and had no fuel. Resorted to burning all the furniture in an attempt to stay warm. That's going to be the result. People aren't going to be cold and hungry for someone else's idea of what is good for the planet. 

The backlash is coming.

nativewolf

Quote from: Hilltop366 on November 22, 2023, 12:26:39 PM
I drove my BIL's ford lightning a few weeks ago, very nice. It's quiet at lower speeds a bit quieter at highway speed because of the tire and wind noise, It handles nice likely because of the low centre of gravity.

He still likes it and enjoys the lower cost of operation.  If I recall correctly it has 42000 km (26000) miles on it he spent a bit under $1000 in electricity so about 10% of what his last truck (GMC ½ ton 4x4 with 6.2) would cost and had 1 service where they checked it over but only topped off the windshield washer so saved another 1000 in oil changes. So if he keeps it long enough to put 10 times the miles on it without major issues it will have saved nearly enough to pay for itself. His last two trucks (bought new) had well over 300000 kms on them and he spent more on fuel than the truck cost.
Yes I love our Lightning, same deal.  Huge savings on fuel but we are putting a few more miles on than your BIL.
Liking Walnut

nativewolf

Quote from: doc henderson on November 22, 2023, 06:34:30 PM
the mining of rare earth minerals is too dirty, and EPA has shut it down in this country.  I thought to save the whole earth was the mission.  It is like illegal immigrants.  All the folks on Marthas Vineyard are for folks to just pour in, until 50 or so show up in their neighborhood.
Before WWII China was already the only place in the world for many of the rare earth minerals.  The USA had 1 mine, it closed after a huge spill of toxic waste but kept processing.  It's processing again, fyi.  It has trouble competing with China.  
Liking Walnut

nativewolf

Quote from: stavebuyer on November 22, 2023, 06:23:52 PM
I know my electric bill has sure changed to the tune of 50% added on the top for fuel adjustments and environmental sur-charges. Few will be able to afford to charge the electric vehicles once the dust settles on the green initiatives but maybe that's all part of the plan.
Still so much cheaper than gas.  Hilltop BIL has it right, 10 years on it should have paid for itself in fuel savings.  
Liking Walnut

Southside

Received an email today from one of those carbon credit companies, they no longer will do annual harvest deferred contracts as nobody will buy the carbon credits, but now they offer a deal where you can plant "GMO trees" which grow faster to capture more carbon.  Had to laugh out loud, so now the plan is to save the planet by increasing the amount of genetic messing around we do not knowing what the consequences will be, and in the process we will grow a bunch of pulp.  

The 3rd rock from the sun may survive, but we just might be successful in killing off every living thing on it one way or another despite ourselves.  
Franklin buncher and skidder
JD Processor
Woodmizer LT Super 70 and LT35 sawmill, KD250 kiln, BMS 250 sharpener and setter
Riehl Edger
Woodmaster 725 and 4000 planner and moulder
Enough cows to ensure there is no spare time.
White Oak Meadows

barbender

Too many irons in the fire

doc henderson

It must be the slave labor in China that helps them compete. ;)
Timber king 2000, 277c track loader, PJ 32 foot gooseneck, 1976 F700 state dump truck, JD 850 tractor.  2007 Chevy 3500HD dually, home built log splitter 18 horse 28 gpm with 5 inch cylinder and 32 inch split range with conveyor powered by a 12 volt tarp motor

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