2007

[farmerdoug]

I think corn is the darling right now because it is cheap, easy the convert and the system to produce it is already in place.

I am looking for the refinement in producing methanol from biomass, then you can really use an underuesed resource.  The sad thing is that most methanol is made from natural gas now a days as it is cheaper than from biomass i guess.  As the price of grain rises the tech for produce methanol cheaply will probably replace ethanol I hope.

The same can be said for biodiesel.  There is now even a fraction of the oil to produce enough biodiesel to replace dino diesel either.

Farmerdoug

[Part_Timer]

OOPS my bad.  I didn't know that the byproduct went into cattle feed.  I guess that answers my question.

[SPIKER]

I know of at least 3 plants under construction and or getting permits to begin construction in the ethanol plants that is.  producing bio-gas & e85.   bad thing is they should be making more bio-diesel and producing more small 3~4 cyl cars running those like they do in Europe.   right now you can get a VW that gets 45+ over there while they won't even offer them here!   I know one guy who put a 3 cyl china made diesel into his 80 something compact mazda pickup and is gettign 50+ ,mpg...   now he did a lot of machining work to do so but the tech is pretty OLD so no real excuses other than EPA and peoples ignorance...

I'm the only vote for MUCH WORSE as like someone said a collapse is coming but when.   Here in ohio every day headlines are some other big employer is leaving & going overseas to produce cheaper stuff.   OK that is fine but who will  be able to afford buying it?   my company 3rd one I been at in lat 5 yrs is cut back hrs to ~32 hrs a week on average.   todays year in review top story was big plant closings...

most of us on this site have land/property and equipment to support our selves and each other.  what is going to happen (and has been happening for years) is city dwellers won't be able to buy, live work & eat there so they will move out in to the country driving up prices and making more and more need for fuel/gas pressure on the country dwellers lively hood.

While we are actually making something to contribute to the US many of the people are only making payments to the banks which are owned by other governments and or to the oil companies ect.   the big CEOs do little to actually RUN a company yet take billions in bonuses and or pay & benefits usually out of the workers pockets so that the workers can't buy the product, then CEO says I can get even more $ if I make it all over seas paying 1 buck a day to the worked & ship it back saving the company millin0os a day so my bonus check then triples...   the little guy is one that gets left out CEOS get big payday...   soon things will change and I think it will be this year...  so call me a doomsayer ;)

markM

[Rocky_Ranger]

Back before I went back into the business of forestry I had a hog and cattle farm and did feed the mash from an ethanol plant.  Man, that stuff smells so good when it runs out that conveyor all warm and wet.  Some dairy folks started feeding it and things went sour (poor choice of words here) in a hurry.  It molds pretty quick.  Not a problem for hogs but milk tests are another story.  After the lawsuits the plant went out of business.  That was back in the 1980's - I wish I know then what I know now, I'd bought that thing.  The mash is very wet and warm, causing it to sour and mold up pretty quick.  Drying would take a lot of energy to get it down to a usable MC%.  Feeding it as it comes out would be great but that 's alot of mash for a critter to feed. 

By the way, I think things will be a little better this next year (2007).

[TexasTimbers]

I think corn is the darling right now

You might be right but I lost my fanny in corn in '97. Once bitten twice shy. 
I am sticking with oil. Small investing is still possible with oil unlike the popular belief that you must invest tens of thousands. You can buy shares several ways and often without a broker, without big minimums, and without taking huge risks. You can also go for a little risk if you want to play the short term market through the new e-mini contracts offered by the NYME. But that is for investors with a little experience and with eyes wide open and with risk capital.
DRIPs are a fantastic option for everyone, and if you are willing to do the due dilligence it takes you can invest directly in some drilling operations with as little as $5000.
But there are plenty of ways to invest in oil without huge risks. If it goes down it is no different than waiting through a MS ot TI valley. Hold 'em. I can almost assure you the bottom is not going to drop out out of oil anytime soon. :P

[farmerdoug]

Around here the dairy farmers use dry distillers grains.  I am sure you could also get the wet one also, but the dry stores alot better.

We have a plant to the north of us that has been producing for several years now.  There is one going in just south of us in Marysville that will produce 100 million plus gallons a year.

The profit is high in those plants because of the high gas prices.  I do not see them bringing down the price of fuel though.

Farmerdoug

[Fla._Deadheader]

Not as much use for Ethanol as fuel. Used as additive for E85 more or less.

[farmerdoug]

True, but I think the gasoline as more likely the additive in E85.  When they can build a plant and recoupe the costs in less then 5 years there is bucu profits there.

Farmerdoug

[Fla._Deadheader]

Es Correcto, 85% Ethanol.

  Methanol is made by destructive distillation. Get something like 1 1/2 gallons per ton of wood ??

[farmerdoug]

That is one way.  You get alot of charcoal that way also. ;D

They are also working on an easier way with better production using fermentation just like ethanol.  I know it can be done with fermentation but the process is long and cumbersome.

Farmerdoug

[Woodcarver]

There's a practical limit to the amount of distillers grains that can be fed to dairy cattle.  Too much results in a reduction in the butterfat content of the milk.  That's lost income to the dairy farmer.

[farmerdoug]

I beleive that the limit is 22% or 22 lbs per day in the diet, I am not sure which but it is double the allowable amount of corn though.  It allows a reduction in the daily feed of haylage or silage too and therefore saves on the production costs too.

Farmerdoug

[Tom]

What does it do to Hogs and chickens?

[DanG]

Good question, Tom.  Cows ain't the only beasts that can use the stuff, and dairy cows ain't the only bovines, either.

I'm wondering what it would do to/for the small farmer.  Is it possible that a good, stable market for grains would make it practical again to grow 20-100 acres for a little income boost?  There are an awful lot of us wannabe farmers out here that have a few acres laying fallow.  There are a bunch of tractors and other equipment that's not being used for very much.  I can see an opportunity for a fellow to buy harvesting equipment and make some money in contract harvesting.  Such a movement could also cause the equipment mfrs to produce some smaller stuff, too.  My Uncle used to have a small, pull-behind combine that ran off the PTO on the tractor.  I don't think they've made those in many years, because it was no longer practical.  They could/would make them again, if there was a market for them.  It would be good for that industry, too. 

[Tom]

I anticipate the government permitting/licensing the growing of corn and other grain crops if and when the volume of alcohol fuels begins to grow.  Much the same as they did for tobacco.  Bureaucrats will not be able to resist controlling the dollars and any excuse will do.  The first reason they will give is that the farmers are making their own beer and distilled beverages.

It's not the money, nor the product, nor the grain that proposes the problem, it's the control. God forbid that a citizen finds a way to begin crawling out from under Big Government's thumb.

[DanG]

Cantankerous old curmudgeon! :

[Tom]

;D

[farmerdoug]

The distillers grain is a high protein source so I do not see why it cannot be fed to anything that uses protein.  I know that it is in health food stores.  It is used in cat and dog food also.

I think the small farmer can make money for a while as the big farmers want big feilds to work.  The only problem is the when the farmers start making a little money the cost of input go up.  Just look at the price of fertilizer rising the last few years.

Farmerdoug

[Norm]

You can use it to feed anything that needs protein in it's diet. The reason it's not as desirable to feed some is that it replaces a protein that is better utilized by that animal, soy protein for example. They will still gain weight but not as efficiently as with the protein it replaces.

Almost all of the new ethanol plants are the kind that have dry distillers grain as a leftover. The wet mill ones are for the most part converting to it.

[Don_Papenburg]

Someone mentioned grain prices going up and the prices at the grocery store also going up as a result.    Well it does not compute    Today corn is 2.58 at the elevator.  a Bu. of corn is 56lb.  a 14 OZ. box of corn flakes is 3.70     That is 64 boxes of cerial from a Bu. of corn. Maybe more because there are other things in cornflakes. Lets say 10 OZ per box. Making a Bu. of corn into 89.5 boxes of cerial
The price for the corn in that box is  whopping $0.o28 . That is less than 3cents a box  So we can double  the price paid to the farmer and never feal the 3cent increase in production cost.    The same works for bread  and other products. Farm prices can double and not effect the price of the consumer product. 

[DanG]

Naww Don, it don't compute.  But if the corn price doubled and they had to pay $0.056 per box, corn flakes would jump to $15 per box and Kelloggs would be screaming for a government bailout. : :D :D

[Ron Wenrich]

When Tiger Woods graced the corn flakes boxes, it was said that he made more from each box of flakes than the farmer who produced it did. 

[farmerdoug]

They just use the price as an excuse to raise their prices.  My dad said in the early 70's that wheat went sky high(5-7 dollars a bushel I beleive) and the price of bread jumped big time too.  Well the price of wheat fell back to normal as usual but the price of beard never did come back down.  They saw that people got use to the price and just keep it there.  Just like OPEC with the oil prices.  I remember just a couple of years ago they were complaining the the oil prices were below 20 a barrel and they really needed to be around 28/barrel.  Now they are wanting it to stay up around 65/barrel since they now know that we will pump that gas into our cars at that price anyways with just a little grumble on the price.

Farmerdoug

[SwampDonkey]

My uncle (mom's brother) sees all this corn being grown here since the early-mid nineties and his comment is that cows really don't prefer corn for feed. He maintains that cows do better on timothy and clover feed, plus the usual mash rations. Dad, grandfather and my uncle had cattle of their own and they were never fed corn. They always grew their own feed.

[Gary_C]

Up until October of 2006, I had dairy cows and regularly fed them Dried Distillers Grains from the local ethanol plant. The cows just love it and would eat it straight if you let them. It has been one of many ingredients that can provide good protein, fat, and some slower digesting protein.

I have a dairy ration balancing program and can say that it is very complicated to feed for maximum production. It really has nothing to do with what the cows prefer. You need to have a properly balanced ration considering ADF, NDF, fat, bypass protein sources, type of fiber fed, minerals, etc. The key is to have every mouthful that has everything the cows need and tastes good so they eat the maximum amount of dry matter they can consume.

In 2006, the ethanol plants were expected to consume 14% of the corn crop and there were many plants that were scheduled for completion late in the year. It was thus no surprise the corn price went up from below $2.00 to currently $3.65 for spring delivery in this area. There are many large farmers in this area that have already contracted this years crop and plan to switch all their acres to corn next year and have contracted next year's crop at these prices.

The down side to these higher prices is the livestock producers including the dairy farmers will suffer with high feed prices and may not survive unless they find alternative feed sources. For example, DDG's have increased from $70 per ton this fall to $120 per ton now because some smart livestock producers contracted their feed needs for the next year and reduced the available supply.