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Author Topic: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic  (Read 1248 times)

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Offline mills

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Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« on: March 17, 2020, 12:06:39 PM »
I know everything is still a big unknown, but does anyone have any insights or theories on what our timber markets will look like once we work our way through this virus pandemic?

Offline Jeff

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2020, 12:21:55 PM »
There are 3 topics currently running on the virus. One in the restricted topic area and one in health and safety and one in full member business.  This will be the last  new topic allowed as it is a different theme. Post accordingly.  Any posts outside of the restricted board that becomes political or requires a foil hat will be deleted. If that person  does it twice causing an admin to take action, you will become unable to post until this ordeal is over or under control.  

Order here will be maintained as  it always has.
Just call me the midget doctor.
Forestry Forum Founder and Chief Cook and Bottle Washer.

Commercial circle sawmill sawyer in a past life.
Ezekiel 22:30

Offline nativewolf

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2020, 09:57:32 PM »
Well we actually have seen some recent upticks in pricing, for RO.  WO is still strong/hot.  Walnut good but not hot.  We hear China is out of logs and ready to buy but not much in the way of orders yet, the tariffs on oaks are off though.  For the spring/summer market you are looking at two sets of impacts that are reinforcing.  The traditional pull back of the hardwood market pricing in the summer and the demand side of things; the conflict between reductions caused by the virus and the positive impact of China becoming a buyer.  Which one wins out?  Probably the virus because we had a long long growth spurt.  Too long to not get hit by a recession without the virus.  Now that the virus is here and sucking up all the monies and savings I doubt the timber market in China can replace that.  For many Asian companies the purpose of buying logs was to make furniture to send back to the USA.  So, even some Asian demand could fall as the customers stay home (a joke  ;D).  

Now that is all hardwood related.  Softwoods I have no idea.  Does building pickup with free money? 

In summary...I think the required recession is here, might last a bit longer than 2 quarters..maybe a full year.  I don't see China offsetting a recession in the USA.  

Just my thoughts and worth what you paid..or a bit less.  
Liking Walnut

Offline bushmechanic

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2020, 07:39:15 PM »
One thing is for sure and certain... it will be a long time before anyone in Canada needs toilet paper!!! :D

Offline jmouton

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2020, 08:18:22 PM »
i ve got my foil hat on ,just in case jeff,   2 layers of foil too
lt-40 wide ,fiat tractor,bobcat,international flatbed,10 ton trailer, stihl 075,041,029,066,and a 2015 f-350,and a oldwheel loader ,grapple system coming soon!!

Offline nativewolf

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2020, 08:24:31 PM »
Hearing from some big mills that they expect things to be quite busy in 2 weeks and demand is picking up from China.  Nearly every mill in Ohio and PA  are still milling inventory and log yards will be empty very soon.  2 PA mills have a concentration yard in VA and they are stocking up here for when they are allowed to bring logs into the facilities in PA.  Ohio mills that buy from us are back to work already but 1 large mill is out of logs so I guess they stay closed.  I hear that there were going to be price increases at several mills for RO.  We'll see how that plays out.  Also high end WO moving higher.

That's all the news I got.
Liking Walnut

Offline timberking

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2020, 01:01:33 PM »
Down here pine logs are very tight with mills holding down inventory.  Hardwood logs are getting soft as we are having a tough time moving flooring and hoping the tie market doesn't crater from oversupply.  Economy will probably bounce back at the end of the building season and we  tuff it out another winter

Offline ehp

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Re: Timber Markets on the Backside of the Virus Pandemic
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2020, 10:03:05 PM »
here they just told us tonight to figure most things to be shut down until summer at earliest and it most likely will be longer than that


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