Lumber prices too high

livemusic · November 30, 2020, 09:06:33 AM

I was going to build a base deck for a shed and checked prices for a budget and sheesh, the lumber prices have more than doubled since last time I checked months ago. How long do you think this will last before they go back or will they?

mike_belben · November 30, 2020, 09:38:55 AM

In the past 2 years theyve actually tripled. I was paying $5.92 for what is now $17 plus tax. Yet anytime im in the store guys are loading up.

It should sell a lot of sawmills.

Wudman · November 30, 2020, 11:21:07 AM

The pine lumber wholesale market is back where it belongs. I don't know when the retail side will return to normal. I looked at some $84.00 treated 6x6 posts yesterday and kept on walking. I want to build a shed as well, but now is not the time. For framing an ag shed, I would look at #2 common Yellow Poplar at the moment.

Wudman

sawguy21 · November 30, 2020, 12:19:21 PM

My buddy, a log truck operator, went to buy 2x4s to build raised beds. He went into shell shock, 46 bucks for one 16 footer! It is sure not reflected in what they get paid, the rates are low enough it is hardly worth getting out of bed.

moodnacreek · November 30, 2020, 12:55:44 PM

Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.

LeeB · November 30, 2020, 07:23:14 PM

4x4x8's around here go for $20. That's $1.87/BF. Your 6x6x10 at $50 is a bargain compared to this. I see lots of them asking $75 for 6x6x10.

Southside · November 30, 2020, 08:24:13 PM

Lowe's is showing 2x8-16 for $0.83/ BF. Can't really complain about that.

mike_belben · November 30, 2020, 11:28:51 PM

Lowes gets $17 for 2x6x12 untreated white pine by me.

Bruno of NH · December 01, 2020, 04:32:14 PM

A eastern spruce 2x4x10 with all the wain you can ask for is $10.59 at LaValleys building supply

Walnut Beast · December 01, 2020, 04:53:00 PM

🤑8.24 here

Walnut Beast · December 01, 2020, 06:57:51 PM

Quote from: Southside on November 30, 2020, 08:24:13 PM
Lowe's is showing 2x8-16 for $0.83/ BF. Can't really complain about that.

Lowe's was showing it here for 17.34 & 14.12 in two different locations but they are out of stock everywhere around here. Menards has it in stock for 💰 27.75 🙄

mike_belben · December 01, 2020, 10:10:41 PM

At prices like that, maybe menards bought lowes out.

Patrick NC · December 02, 2020, 08:24:52 PM

Quote from: moodnacreek on November 30, 2020, 12:55:44 PM
Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.

I sell erc for $2 per bf here. That's $60 for that 6x6. Sells as fast as I can get it. White oak trailer decking is almost the same price. Selling a lot of that too.

SwampDonkey · December 03, 2020, 05:24:58 AM

The lumber mill yards here are stuffed with lumber, yet Homedepot prices were double.

PoginyHill · December 03, 2020, 07:50:37 AM

If softwood logs are plentiful in the mill yards, that explains why log prices haven't jumped - no need to encourage more if they are already full. On the lumber side, housing starts is gangbusters. Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. Anyone in that situation would raise their price. So something is impacting the supply and demand on the lumber side.
I've heard hardwood mill log yards are not so full, which makes sense with some comments of rising hardwood log prices made here.

mike_belben · December 03, 2020, 08:34:15 AM

Prices boil down to 2 simple answers.

"Because we can"

And

"Because we couldnt"

kantuckid · December 03, 2020, 08:57:37 AM

Quote from: Patrick NC on December 02, 2020, 08:24:52 PM
Quote from: moodnacreek on November 30, 2020, 12:55:44 PM
Charged a guy $50 ea. for 6x6x10 erc posts the other day. He was not happy. He knows I raised the price from last year. He had been shopping all over. I have a different price for those who have been supporting me for years.
I sell erc for $2 per bf here. That's $60 for that 6x6. Sells as fast as I can get it. White oak trailer decking is almost the same price. Selling a lot of that too.

There are three different ERC companies in my end of KY. All export ERC cants and will gladly sell to a drive up buyer at market prices. FB marketplace has many SYP sellers who are buying spot market bundles from southern producers of PT and untreated given the high SPF prices in box stores. I see ~ 75cents/BF or less in bulk buys. Same thing for small mills with ERC lumber-they prefer to sell to a drive up vs a haul bill sale. EWP near me is ~ 55-65 cents BF in rough sawed, poplar varies but often cheap in wet as WO stave logs are the loggers money wood here right now, not pine at all. Many local mills will not buy a pine log in spite of the box store prices. Many mills here own the timber and tell their log crews to leave the pines in the woods right now.
IMO, the sad aspect of the ERC business is the decent but smaller logs that go into somebodies pet poopy material. Might be a cash crop for some loggers but seems a waste to my mind when they could be made into an end product beside shavings.

GRANITEstateMP · December 05, 2020, 11:36:11 AM

I just got a handful of 2x6x12 from a local lumber yard, $9 ea with my contractor discount

dgdrls · March 09, 2021, 05:47:04 PM

2x4x10's $9.96 SPF

and saw these

tamarackman · March 09, 2021, 06:58:41 PM

Quote from: dgdrls on March 09, 2021, 05:47:04 PM
2x4x10's $9.96 SPF

and saw these

I've never seen 5x5 posts in my local hardware stores.
What are everyone's opinion on what will happen to the price of lumber in the short to medium term?

Andries · March 09, 2021, 08:21:40 PM

Quote from: PoginyHill on December 03, 2020, 07:50:37 AM. . . Plus there may be some mill production impact from COVID - limited shifts or limited overtime - and they can't produce the volume that can be sold. . . .

Doubt that.
Meat packing plants have super crowded working conditions and have maintained production numbers.
The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.
The deep pockets on Bay St and Wall St. are choking back production to goose the prices/profits.
Watch for prices on hardwoods and softwoods to decline, when our world finds a new normal, post vaccinations and restrictions.
Keep on milling all you sawyers out there!

Ed_K · March 11, 2021, 07:08:15 AM

1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.

g_man · March 11, 2021, 07:24:19 PM

Yesterday a neighbor asked me if we could go over to Home Despot in my pick up to get a sheet of plywood. Well he bought one sheet of 1/2" fir CDX for $52.00. I couldn't believe it. I would have walked out - talk about prices to high. I'm a little out of touch, maybe even a lot, but that seems ridiculous.

gg

g_man · March 11, 2021, 07:30:41 PM

Quote from: Ed_K on March 11, 2021, 07:08:15 AM
1k bf spf on wall street has been staying right around $880. this week so far.

Is that lumber or logs Ed ??
gg

SwampDonkey · March 12, 2021, 04:14:14 AM

Quote from: Andries on March 09, 2021, 08:21:40 PM

The high demand comes from virus constrained people that are now competing and paying for new houses, home reno's and all manner of residential projects.

But where is the money coming from? There is a lot of household debt out there, a lot. With job losses and uncertainty out there. You've go to have a real stable job to get a mortgage. The guy working 40 hrs for $10/hr at a processing plant (meat or veggies) isn't getting a mortgage and certainly could never pay for a new construction. Where were they in the good times? Are these the same people buying stock high and selling low? No wonder the money people walk around with big smiles on their faces. Your CERB cheque in Canada or your COVID cheque in the USA isn't going to buy a house. If that is the case it's going to all fall down. :D