what do you think lumber prices will do over the next 4 months

[brdmkr]

I am planning on building a shop and have started getting lumber quotes.  I could go ahead and purchase the lumber now and store it without much effort, but I won't actually build for at least 3 - 4 months.  So, how about some speculation?  What do you think lumber prices will do over the next few months?   Should I buy now and store or wait until I am ready?

[Tom]

Saw all of your lumber and it won't matter.  :D

[ronwood]

I have to agree with Tom on that one. Did that recently on my roof that I built for the sawmill. Skidded in some tree that were down and start cutting.

Ron

[Frank_Pender]

Well, I just came in from the midst of the Coast Range and we are getting
$785 of Douglas Fir and the same for Alder for good Alder sawlogs, down to 7" tops.
That is good if you and on the log selling end; not so good if you are on the lumber buying end. :-\

[etat]

Around here bought lumber prices are always cheaper in the winter time because often there's not as much construction going on. It always goes back up in the spring.  I don't know how all of the storm damage will effect that this year but if I was buying lumber and had a place to store it I'd buy it in the winter time. At one time I had almost a whole house full of lumber stored in my shop.  I saved a ton of money too by not waiting until spring when it went up again.   

[broker farmer]

I would tend to agree with cktate.  I deal with the lumber market traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  Lumber trades in increments of 110,000 brd ft.  Right now the January 06  contract is trading at $329.00 per thousand brd ft.  March 06 is trading at $342.00.  Interestingly, May lumber is lower at $337.00.
Many of the market indicators I watch tell me that there is a possibility that lumber prices could weaken some more in the near term.  It's possible that the March contract could move down into the $323.00 range.  My point is that the near term contract (January06)  could also weaken which would point towards possible lower retail prices.  I would buy my lumber between now and the middle of January.  It looks higher after that.  The lumber market traded in Chicago is EXTREMELY volatile!  (I may be right with my "speculation" or I may miss it by a mile.  Reader be aware.  Many of the lumber yards are also working off of extremely high priced inventory right now and may be unwilling to pass along much savings because of it.  Shop around.

[rbjones03]

Overall I think the prices for construction lumber and sheet material ( OSB, plywood and T-111 siding)  will be higher. The rebuilding of the gulf coast should be in full swing and even if the supply of raw materials is abundant from the downed timber from the storms, the manufacturers are still going to charge as much as the market will bear. I have quite a few friend in the construction business and they are all buying their materials on spec. right now. Even if the jobs are 4 - 6 months out.

Then again I could be wrong   

[brdmkr]

Well, it sounds like the consensus is to buy within the next month.  I would cut my own, but that stamp is needed on this one!  I will be cutting my own siding.

[ronwood]

The old stamp gets you again. Tough to get your own lumber graded.

[SwampDonkey]

There are at least two prices here on lumber, one the construction contractor pays and the second is what the home owner pays. Prices here don't seem to work the way you guys describe it. Once she goes up, it never comes down.  Sawlog price is lower than it was 5 years ago but the lumber is higher at the lumber yard. ;D  :

[Kirk_Allen]

Arky's got a stamp.  SSMU - Small Saw MIlls United! 

Nothing to stop you from using your own stamp provide you know what your doing! 

[srjones]

So, how about some speculation?

I can speculate that when I need sell logs, the price will be down, and when I need to buy lumber, the price will be up.   :D

Just seems to work out like that...

[Tony]

         I've got a 30 x 40 sawshed to build and a sideshed on the shop.
I think I'll saw my on lumber, now where is that chainsaw. ;D 8) ;D

                   Tony