Log Prices?

[stavebuyer]

Sawn tie prices expected to drop this week. As low as flooring lumber dropped actually surprised that they didn't drop last fall.
Last rain here was Friday night, none predicted until this weekend. Bark is starting to slip. Good time to garden and cut hay lol

[BargeMonkey]

At least this guy wasn't shooting for the moon. 2x 10' sticks of yard tree Walnut loaded with metal, wire, he said he pulled the clothesline out of it 🤦‍♂️😆. 


 

[ehp]

Your a Bad Man Barge , putting those thoughts in that guys head 

[ehp]

Cut around my landing yesterday , about half of the trees were white oak and they all were almost dead , another 3 to 5 years and they would be on the ground

[Oakbit]

I know lumber is not equal by any means to log prices, but May '23 lumber futures today dropped 5%, to $340 per 1000 bd ft of random length spruce/pine/fir 2x4s. This is its lowest mark since approximately 3 years ago, without even accounting for inflation. 

[nativewolf]

Yes the construction industry binged and then all the cutbacks in capacity caused shortages.  People responded with a mess of new mills from TX over to Florida and now that interest rates soared we have a glut.  

Softwood construction lumber is a big boy game.  Hardwood prices are most holding but that seems to be a loss in supply as much as anything.  China has been a cautious buyer so some support there but it is not booming.  

Walnut and especially white oak are doing fairly well. 

[ehp]

I know I will not get rich cutting this big wormy soft maple .  Good thing only a day or 2 left then on to the next one 

[stavebuyer]

The bourbon backlash begins;

Bourbon warehouse construction put on hold while Kentucky county rethinks zoning (yahoo.com)

The stave market is what drives white oak veneer and lumber pricing. 

The elimination of the tax counties collected from the distillers while the bourbon ages turned the distillers into non-grata freeloaders overnight.

[customsawyer]

On the other side of the coin I have spent the last two days trying to buy 1x8x16 KD #2 pine. Not able to find it anywhere in the state of GA. So if the market is in such a slump then why can't I find the lumber I'm looking for?
I'm not trying to be a smart alec just trying to say that if there is no 1x8x16 pine to be had then who is buying all of it and where is it going.
I fully understand that y'all are logging and I'm selling retail so we can't get much further apart on the scale but it is still a crazy market. When y'all can't sell and I can't buy then what is the answer?

[nativewolf]

The bourbon backlash begins;

Bourbon warehouse construction put on hold while Kentucky county rethinks zoning (yahoo.com)

The stave market is what drives white oak veneer and lumber pricing.

The elimination of the tax counties collected from the distillers while the bourbon ages turned the distillers into non-grata freeloaders overnight.

Maybe you could give some backstory as I don't know what tax you are referring to?  

[nativewolf]

On the other side of the coin I have spent the last two days trying to buy 1x8x16 KD #2 pine. Not able to find it anywhere in the state of GA. So if the market is in such a slump then why can't I find the lumber I'm looking for?
I'm not trying to be a smart alec just trying to say that if there is no 1x8x16 pine to be had then who is buying all of it and where is it going.
I fully understand that y'all are logging and I'm selling retail so we can't get much further apart on the scale but it is still a crazy market. When y'all can't sell and I can't buy then what is the answer?

the pine mills are cutting 2 x X instead of 1 x I guess.  What a strange world.  

[Southside]

When y'all can't sell and I can't buy then what is the answer?

Dig a pond. :D

[stavebuyer]

The bourbon backlash begins;

Bourbon warehouse construction put on hold while Kentucky county rethinks zoning (yahoo.com)

The stave market is what drives white oak veneer and lumber pricing.

The elimination of the tax counties collected from the distillers while the bourbon ages turned the distillers into non-grata freeloaders overnight.

Maybe you could give some backstory as I don't know what tax you are referring to?  

The distilleries, even the iconic brands are now foreign owned. Takes only a handful of people to run a modern distillery, so the only local tax revenue was the personal property tax levied on the bourbon in the barrels as it ages. The sales taxes are all collected elsewhere as are the income the taxes on the multinational corporate profits. Our county the barrel tax was roughly 40% of the budget. Been a lot of money already spent on infrastructure, as well as long term real estate tax abatements granted. Nobody wants a distillery, a refinery, or pulp mill as a noxious neighbor unless there is some benefit. Here that benefit was the barrel tax. 
Kentucky bourbon-makers toast bill phasing out barrel tax | AP News

[ehp]

The amount of sawn lumber has to dry up at some point cause not many mills left and the ones left are not producing huge amounts , even mills that made hardwood flooring are not making as much if they are making any at all

[nativewolf]

The bourbon backlash begins;

Bourbon warehouse construction put on hold while Kentucky county rethinks zoning (yahoo.com)

The stave market is what drives white oak veneer and lumber pricing.

The elimination of the tax counties collected from the distillers while the bourbon ages turned the distillers into non-grata freeloaders overnight.

Maybe you could give some backstory as I don't know what tax you are referring to?  

The distilleries, even the iconic brands are now foreign owned. Takes only a handful of people to run a modern distillery, so the only local tax revenue was the personal property tax levied on the bourbon in the barrels as it ages. The sales taxes are all collected elsewhere as are the income the taxes on the multinational corporate profits. Our county the barrel tax was roughly 40% of the budget. Been a lot of money already spent on infrastructure, as well as long term real estate tax abatements granted. Nobody wants a distillery, a refinery, or pulp mill as a noxious neighbor unless there is some benefit. Here that benefit was the barrel tax.
Kentucky bourbon-makers toast bill phasing out barrel tax | AP News

Wow...I had no idea there was a "barrel tax".    The things you learn on this forum.  Sorry to hear about the struggles with distillers.  We finally found a stave buyer that worked with our process and had started using him as a buyer on our culled suppressed WO.  

[stavebuyer]

Our White Oak Qtr log market just took a big hit. Not buying any logs next week followed by very limited quotas and as yet to be announced reduced pricing. Was less than two months ago they only had a weeks worth of logs at their mill yard and were begging for help hauling logs to keep from shutting down.

Without pressure from veneer(summer) and Qtr logs the cooperages will drop prices or get picky because they can.

[ehp]

It's getting rough out there , Barge is the smart one living on a boat

[rdobb13]

Rough isn't a strong enough word.  Not sure what the right word is though. 

Trying to bounce from job to job to cut what you can actually sell is a pain, quotas are tough. The loader is still a job behind. 

[Firewoodjoe]

Mine is getting caught up still have about 200 cord of various sorts on two jobs. Not terrible I guess. But wish I had it all moved. 

[nativewolf]

Yes you have to be very careful next 2 months.  Just remember there will be a fall and prices will recover so let the good wood sit.  @stavebuyer Tough news on the QS market.  Strange that it filled up so quickly.  

I wasn't planning on cutting any oaks til late in fall/early winter and that seems like the right plan as of now.

[ehp]

Just remember , buying timber at $8/ft standing and selling it fir $2/ft is not a good plan  ;D, mill is telling us to watch close to what were doing which in my case is not a lot  :D, 

[customsawyer]

Sounds like them two guys that got in the hay business. They had been at it for a couple of weeks and one day as they took a break one said "if we keep buying this hay at a dollar a bale and selling it for a dollar a bale we might need a bigger truck to make any money".

[Mountaynman]

Just like the dirty chip market here in northern ny just had Fort Drum shut down and mothball the chip burner supposedly the staff is treating it like it will restart at some mystical point in the future. Really leaves the burner in Burlinton Vt as the only market for the eastern side of the adirondacks, Back to the old saying i've heard from the chippers losing money on every load but you make it up in volume. Not really been able to get the pencil to figure that one out.

[Firewoodjoe]

What's everyone's predictions? Any word on markets. I think we'll be running strong here but it may take a year. And I'm sure prices will stay down. They've came up a lot in the last few years and the big markets.. (Pine, crating logs and pulp) for our area has only came down a small amount. It will be tight for sure. I think the high roller logging will be done for awhile. I keep coming back to wanting to take the next steps. Now obviously isn't that time but if I can be one of the survivors I may jump in on the other side of all this. 

[stavebuyer]

Log and lumber will cycle. Paper and chips are becoming obsolete.  Being a contrarian in a down market is savvy, but best done with saved earnings and not high interest debt. Margins are too slim to have the bank as a partner. Look at the very bottom line as a % of sales. Better to be the banker than the logger.