Log Prices?

[Hogdaddy]

@nativewolf 
Mat logs
16' 10" -.45
18' 12" and up -.55
20'-24' 15" and up -.65
30'-15" and up- .75
40'-15" and up=.85
doyle measure, and pretty tight with the stick in my opinon

[nativewolf]

Are you able to stay in WO heavy stands @Hogdaddy ?  

Looks like we have the same sort of basic mat log pricing right now.  Our tie mill scale is international though so it helps some on the smaller logs

[Hogdaddy]

No, on the white oak stands... where I'm at now is heavier toward red oak and hickory, maybe 10-12% on the white oak. @nativewolf   Ash is moving pretty good

[nativewolf]

Oh good news on the ash!  

[nativewolf]

Our buyers have all increased log prices significantly.  RO has moved from $600 to $750 and veneer is back to 1400, YP export is $0.90 to $1.  YP prime is at 725-800.  Hickory export start next month. 

Anyhow, that's all the news for today.

[Firewoodjoe]

Well that definitely good news. What about inventory? Most loggers I know moved to oak. I know the mills around here are pretty full. Some sorts got quotas cut again. It could take some time to move what's stacked up. 

[nativewolf]

I can only speak about 1 mill, they had let inventory go to over 2mln feet in June and then slashed pricing so only desperate people were delivering logs- over half of the mill production is gatewood so they are just buying what loggers send.  

It took them until last week to get it below 400k feet and they saw 50k a day so it is a good sized mill.  They are one of several that raised pricing. 

Hardwood market report says that inventories across the USA are low right now.

[stavebuyer]

HMR pricing on RO, WO and Walnut uppers have been improving. Unlike the NE, it's been dry here all summer and the mills are brim full of logs. Lumber has been improving but logs haven't. Still some major players with idled mills waiting on better lumber pricing.  I think the price increases are due to lowered supply and not increased demand. Doesn't take much to correct that supply/demand imbalance. China has been huge since 2008. Until there housing crisis gets resolved I don't see much chance of big bull lumber market. 

[nativewolf]

I agree Stavebuyer, I think the issue is even a bit more difficult in that the USA is leading the worlds economic revivial.  Europe is behind, China in danger of stalling out completely.  Japan is moving to lower population.  Mexico is a bright spot and India could become one but for now...things look bleak in most of the big economies EXCEPT here in the USA where we are much better off by comparison.

Therefore, domestic oriented products should fare better.

[stavebuyer]

There is a huge pent-up demand for more housing in the US that is moderated by higher mortgage rates and post-covid construction costs. I think we will see a decline in house sizes and a trading down of features like solid wood floors and cabinets to more affordable alternatives like laminates and RTA cabinets to compensate.

There will always be markets for the "good stuff" but the number of people able to afford it maybe not so much.

[Firewoodjoe]

I agree. But theres already people with small houses and cheap floors. But I think the people that want big best and expensive will always want that. No matter the cost. People complained about $80,000 and yet the same ones have a decked out one. A few people are building here also. Don't seem to care about cost. 

[Firewoodjoe]

Hardwood logs are being exported right now also. 

[Firewoodjoe]

80,000 pickup

[mudfarmer]

The people around here that always had money still have it, just a lot more. The people that never had any still don't have any, and many are living on credit. PPP loans really skewed the difference of the haves and have nots.

There are more and more biomass projects failing, are they going to be able to take that feedstock to make MDF cabinets, OSB etc? There was a hardwood mill here that got bought by a Canadian company, now sawing huge amounts of our nice Adirondack pine and sending across the border to get turned into door and window frames, high recovery with tons of finger jointed pieces. Possible things will adapt to changing markets as they always have.

I'm along for the ride, more ash to sell this winter, but it was bought right 👍 

Always hoping that Cherry prices recover 😂😂 

[nativewolf]

@ehp Amex sending out price raises every week or so now.  Not sure if you get those or not?  

We got one today and it was a pretty good raise on RO.  

[Firewoodjoe]

If a guy only had a stand of veneer. Big want for that right now. Everything looks ok to me. Crating really could use a boost in digestion but I think that will be plugged full for awhile. All my wood is gone though🤷‍♂️

[Hogdaddy]

I keep hoping for raises on red oak here, but haven't heard anything. 

[BargeMonkey]

Called the buyer I'm pretty decent with yesterday, said I'm starting to put wood out. He goes DONT call me / ship wood again till after next week. 🤫 fair amount of wood prices are going to jump back up again after Oct 1st, when the Chinese put their orders in. Biggest problem here is the weather, guys just can't get it out. 

[nativewolf]

If a guy only had a stand of veneer. Big want for that right now. Everything looks ok to me. Crating really could use a boost in digestion but I think that will be plugged full for awhile. All my wood is gone though🤷‍♂️

We thought we'd have a bit more veneer but the quality has been terrible.  Lots of cutting 4-6' off WO butts.  Kills profits.  Forest is quite old and had a lot of use I guess.

[Hogdaddy]

I'm aggravated....the guy I'm cutting on has 2 more farms, one is covered up with big white oak, one is average timber.... he wants to cut the average stuff first. I hope white oak doesn't go down next year.  :-[

[ehp]

Log prices are abit better but logging cost has about doubled so read between the lines

[Firewoodjoe]

As long as wood keeps moving we'll make it. Keep your chins up tighten up and keep pushin. All we can do. I can handle most cost. Oil has seemed to slow. Actually dropped a tad. Fuel isn't good but I've always bought on road up until this last big jump. So it's only about a $1 more than I was kinda used to. I'm getting bigger fuel hungry iron though since I started. I notice that. If I don't stay in the right wood it hurts in a matter of weeks. I've always been cheap and try to save where I can. Prolly do things a lot of guys wouldn't think of. Weather it's right or not it keeps the ball rolling. 

[ehp]

My pencil is quite sharp.and works very good and writes honest numbers not make believe like I see lots do . There is tons of wood around but what there is less and less of is sawmills that need the wood . You loose a mill that's 75 miles away or so and then you got the guys that feed that mill.trying to cut in on you and sell their logs to your mill. You 

[Firewoodjoe]

Is the "You" at the end referring to me? Well I don't sell logs. And I don't cut in on any logger. And my mill don't buy logs from any logger. All in house. A lot of mills are that way around here. In fact every mill I know has crews out. Like everything else. Trying to cut out the middle man. And it will happen some day. 

[nativewolf]

@Hogdaddy that is strange.  This is the market to cut the better WO.  He's not stringing you along is he?  Do you have contracts on it?  My worry would be he gets you to cut the junk and send the WO out to bid or something.  Of course he's probably thinking the opposite, he's worried you'd cut the WO and not cut the junk.  Cutting on shares?

FWJ and EHP :  markets are tight and fuel increases didn't help.  The one advantage of training an employee is that he's slow and new to forestry so fuel use plummeted.   Our fuel costs are lower than EHP but higher than FWJ so I am happy about our $3.70/gallon tank of offroad.  WTI and Brent oil markets collapsed last week and oil is heading downhill quickly from almost $94/barrel to 83 or so today.  Diesel should slowly follow suit.  



Good luck everyone!