From Fox News:
President Donald Trump on Saturday signed two executive orders that call for immediately expanding American lumber production and addressing lumber imports' threat to national security.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-issues-executive-orders-addressing-lumber-production-national-security-concerns?dicbo=v2-mgiEj5O&intcmp=fn_article_bc_ob_more_from (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-issues-executive-orders-addressing-lumber-production-national-security-concerns?dicbo=v2-mgiEj5O&intcmp=fn_article_bc_ob_more_from)
The man wants us to be self sufficient in lumber production.
Wait...isn't it better to just let our forests burn or get taken out by insect infestations and import lumber from other countries?
From what I've read and heard over the years, you can certainly cut a lot more wood to feed demand. We could stand a little bit less cutting up here, so our woods grows more than 30 years before it's clearcut again. We used to have 80 year planning horizons, that ended by the end of the 80's. I'd say to that most woodlots were being liquidated starting at that time. They wouldn't have had the wood if the old timers cut that way before them. We also made DNR an armed enforcement role instead of actually managing the forest, to decide when, where and what gets cut off public land. I have thinned for 25 years and have never seen a silviculture map provided by DNR on public land. All the silviculture maps come from mills. Because of the push for low value wood being cut more often, that kept stumpage low, which in turn kept purchased wood off woodlots low money. They based market price on low stumpage rates.
Swamp is all your TSI work done on and paid for by private companies?
It's not TSI that I do. It's juvenile spacing with clearing saws. I work on public land, mill ground and some private woodlot ground. Government pays for public land, woodlot owners co-pay with government funding through the woodlot associations. Mills pay on their own land. My firewood cutting is a form of TSI on my own land, I cut for firewood. Expense is out of my own pocket. I use all the wood, some may be for wet crossings, but it's all used.
Quote from: barbender on March 03, 2025, 12:01:31 AMWait...isn't it better to just let our forests burn or get taken out by insect infestations and import lumber from other countries?
Try out some simulations!
https://wadetb.github.io/life/
Over the last 60 years Ontario's Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) has entered countless Agreements with private landowners that work like this: MNR would supply (and maybe plant) the pine or spruce seedlings at a greatly reduced price on your old fields, provided that you agreed not to cut them down for the Christmas tree market.
Furthermore, the Ontario Government and Municipalities teamed up to offer property tax concessions to landowners who have converted their old fields to "Conservation Lands".
The end result - in these parts - has been a shambles: plantations of peckerpoles that have never been thinned to produce usable timber, and are succumbing to insects, fungus, and eventually fire.
So what could have/should have been an opportunity to have an incredible volume of marketable timber, was squandered. And, in any event, a majority of municipalities in southern and eastern Ontario have introduced bylaws that effectively outlaw logging.
2x larger log yards just called guys today, NOT TAKING WOOD now with the export thing. See how long this drags out for.
Yep, the tariffs are gonna hurt us. With all the mills closing or going for small wood it's hard to get a market for over 30 inch wood out here if it isn't clean. Have to ship 3 hrs just to get rid of it. Makes no sense out here to shut down the export market but increase logging on public land. There aren't enough mills to take the wood, unless they team up with some sort of public private partnership to guarantee mills a certain amount so they build new ones.
Quote from: quilbilly on March 04, 2025, 08:53:57 PMThere aren't enough mills to take the wood, unless they team up with some sort of public private partnership to guarantee mills a certain amount so they build new ones.
That's a problem I can see with the plan as well. It's all very well making a decree, but what's the actual long term policy that's going to make the needed investment a financially sensible one. If the policy has been put in place seemingly on a whim. it can also be reversed just as easily. Suddenly Canadian wood is back on the menu. It's not just the mills either, the loggers will need more machinery and workers. Are they going to commit to an expensive lease and staff training without some solid contracts?
The idea of increasing timber production is basically a good one, it's the actual process of achieving it that's the hard part.
Quote from: Kodiakmac on March 04, 2025, 05:25:08 PMThe end result - in these parts - has been a shambles: plantations of peckerpoles that have never been thinned to produce usable timber, and are succumbing to insects, fungus, and eventually fire.
Simply saying "Plant more Trees" isn't really a plan. 99% of NZ forestry is plantation softwoods (Radiata Pine and Doug Fir). But the management of that has been pretty much perfected over the last ~150 years. So plant selection / site prep / planting and then pruning / thinning for the first 5-10 years are all worked out (There is even a manual for it).
Because the plantations are constantly being logged and replanted, that means a steady supply of logs, and land owners can count on there being a demand for pine logs in 25-30 years when the new crop is ready to harvest.
You need to avoid the Chicken or Egg issue. No good having logs if there is no mill to buy them. No good building a mill if you can't get logs.
I said this all along , no use cutting more timber when you do not have the mills to saw it or a market everyone can make money at . As of today there is less demand for your lumber or logs than there was yesterday , it's like around here, I got tons of timber to cut but the mill is full but will still take my stuff but they think I should be fishing or doing something else cause they donot need the logs to be honest
As I understand it, the Executive Order dictates that there be analysis and new guidance issued. The orders are far reaching when you read them. Mentioned in the article were streamlining permitting processes, wildfire abatement and forest management, and a determination how reliant the US is on imported lumber.
It was noted that imports of lumber from Canada, Germany and Brazil have sharply increased. Curtailing these imports will certainly hurt in the short run, but fuel a boom in the timber services industry in the long run. Plus, companies like Asplundh will profit tremendously from robust forest management policies. We all don't like it when California, SC and Canada burn so horrifically, so that part is a good thing for sure.
While I don't really like all this tariff stuff and the back and forth, its his way of starting the negotiations through a position of strength. Canada is nothing but trees for millions of acres. Their wood is cheap and plentiful. But prudence requires looking at it from the viewpoint of what happens if they start to squeeze us like those OPEC criminals.
BTW, Canada as the 51st state would solve the problem. smiley_hydrogen fire_smiley popcorn_smiley
So far I don't think there is a forestry version of OPEC (OFEC?).
NZ actually exports wood to the US, mostly pine/ fir construction lumber into the California area. But it's "only" about $200 million worth, so probably flying under the tariff radar at the moment. And it's only about 7% of the wood exported, so it wouldn't be devastating to lose. Might hurt a couple of mills that mostly export to that market, but it's not the only place to sell wood.
I guess the thing is NZ actually has a positive trade balance with China, sure we import a heap of stuff from them, but they buy a roughly equivalent amount of stuff. Like logs / lumber, beef, butter, cheese etc. That's why we don't like trade wars and import restrictions, and try and keep out of that sort of crap.
Govt push here is to do more log processing onshore, vs exporting logs, but again you get the chicken and egg thing. This time with sawmills and markets. You can't market wood you can't process, but should you build a sawmill for a market that doesn't yet exist? One certainty is the log supply, as there was heavy planting done in the late 90s, and that wood is coming on stream now. Only question is how much gets shipped out to Asia as logs, vs how much can be processed locally (and then shipped out).
I guess there is no reason the US can't actually become a net wood exporter, you have the land area to grow trees. NZ forestry production comes from about 8% of our land area, but it's carefully managed, same as you would grow corn, just on a longer timeline. 38% of our land area is forest, but the other 30% is basically tied up in National Parks and State owned land / reserves etc. But maybe 75% of production ends up exported as we just don't use enough wood locally. Only stuff that's imported is specialty woods that don't grow so well here (and some of that is from the US, Want some expensive walnut furniture?)
Encouraging better forest production is good good thing, but NZ as an economy doesn't like tariffs. Get better at producing and selling stuff if you have a trade imbalance.
I've done my best to keep politics out of this thread, and just looked at economics to avoid a move to the restricted topics. Please keep it that way, the thread topic was borderline, but factual.
Canada has a long and unwise history of being hewers of wood and drawers of water. As a country, we expose ourselves to the present risk by milking the cash cow of raw log and dimension lumber export, while lining up to buy IKEA furniture. More and more I see the wisdom of the phrase, 'take your wood as far as you can'.
Quote from: rusticretreater on March 05, 2025, 12:40:23 AMAs I understand it, the Executive Order dictates that there be analysis and new guidance issued. The orders are far reaching when you read them. Mentioned in the article were streamlining permitting processes, wildfire abatement and forest management, and a determination how reliant the US is on imported lumber.
. . .
I just saw a headline announcing another pause on the across-the-board tarrifs, for both Canada and Mexico.
The Lumber Industry analysis,as an executive order, is still in forward gear, but it's not clear what the intent is.
.
Any ideas from the brain trust here?
In the big scheme of world trade, I liken this to a chess game. Where the lumber industry is but one of the pawns. Pawns in the game of chess have their importance but are expendable, and the human life within a pawn ends up not very significant.
The lumber industry has been badgered at least for the last 50+ years I've known about the back and forth negotiations between different countries including Canada/USA and even Russia when dumping their dimension lumber into the market. The deals between countries runs deep but the life of the families that labor in the woods and the lumber mills have little consideration as the industry they labor for is but a pawn in the big scheme of things. Extremely important, yet ends up not.
Maybe the large hammer (i.e. 25%) will be effective for the innards of the pawns. :snowball: :snowball:
Folks don't realize that Trump is a master of making moves with one hand to get attention while doing what he intends to do with the other hand and being undetected until it is done.
Lynn
Just like a good chess player, too.
I think that part of this has to do with the new direction they want for the national forests. My understanding is that they want to do some more intensive forestry work than what is currently practiced. They want to do away with some of the regulations that have timber sales tied up in courts for years. Doing this will ultimately end up with more stumpage available and a healthier forests. Might even reduce the number and intensity of some of the wildfires. At least, that's what's hoped for.
But, if you increase available fiber, then you have to have a market. Dimension markets have been decreasing since 1986. Private housing starts peaked in 1973. The housing markets have been decreasing since then. Currently, there's a 20% reduction over peak. I doubt we'll get back to peak housing starts as the boomers cash in and more homes become available.
Production of sawn lumber has been pretty steady the past several years. Current annual production is about 26 billion bf, while consumption is 42 billion. Imports account for about 15. There is also a small amount that goes for export. The slice of imported lumber has been increasing for the past 20+ yrs.
So, it looks like if imports are restricted, there's plenty of room for production expansion. I think a quota system would be more effective, if this is a reason for the tariffs.
I do see those trends on starts. But also the Stats I see from US Census bureau on completed homes show 1.65M in 2006 and 0.940 M in 1975, 0.447M in 2011 and 1.02M in 2022. Here where I live there has been 3 houses built in 10 years and looks like another going up this spring. But you don't get much house building in farming areas like here. In fact subdividing a farm for houses jumps your taxes, including 16 years of back taxes.
Builders are waiting on concrete in parts of Florida. It's slowing some growth.
Quote from: Ron Wenrich on March 07, 2025, 12:19:46 PMBut, if you increase available fiber, then you have to have a market. Dimension markets have been decreasing since 1986. Private housing starts peaked in 1973. The housing markets have been decreasing since then. Currently, there's a 20% reduction over peak. I doubt we'll get back to peak housing starts as the boomers cash in and more homes become available.
Move over concrete and steel, mass timber construction is here.
(https://forestryforum.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10125/IMG_5306.jpg) (https://forestryforum.com/gallery/displayimage.php?pid=355253)
Watched this one from the ground up.
It's pretty exciting to see all the mass timber projects come to life almost in my front yard. Sure there have been problems and setbacks, I hope it all comes together.
The just completed Walmart mega headquarters campus is a show case for mass timber.
Walmart Campus (https://www.architecturalrecord.com/articles/17318-walmart-debuts-new-home-office-campus-in-northwest-arkansas)
The University of Arkansas just a few miles away.
America's largest mass timber building (https://www.archpaper.com/2019/11/adohi-hall-university-of-arkansas/)
Tall Timber: The Future of Cities in Wood (https://news.uark.edu/articles/75605/-tall-timber-the-future-of-cities-in-wood-exhibition-to-be-displayed-through-march-24)
And there are more.
British Columbia allows for wooden structures over 18 stories tall. That's where you'll see tall timber construction in Canada mostly. UBC's Brock Commons Tallwood House, is an 18-storey student residence. Currently the tallest wooden building in the world. Although, the Canada Earth Tower in Vancouver, is planned to be a 37-storey building. Eastward, it is pretty much centred around Toronto and Montreal. Interesting times.
Is mass timber construction where wood is the cladding over the steel? That's what I see in Larry's pic.
There are steel components for sure and a steel framed roof over the Brock Commons Tallwood House.
Brock Commons Tallwood House (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brock_Commons_Tallwood_House)
Canada Earth Tower (https://structurecraft.com/projects/canada-earth-tower)
I think the steel your seeing is scaffolding, connectors, and temporary supports which get pulled. A lot of the wood is cross laminated timbers (clt's). I milled a trailer load of big clt cutoffs from one of the first buildings the UofA built to use them on some kind of deck.
I think its more on the line of Trump knows some industry bigwigs who have been getting hammered by current market conditions. Steel, lumber, auto, etc. You make the decisions on how to get these industries healthy again without fighting congress, the libs and enviros and the lobbyists. Trump is limited in his powers to do things but also quite powerful in many ways. He is also an experienced fella who knows how to get things done.
The recipe is always the same, eliminate some competition, drop restrictive regs and policies, level the playing field and then wait for the market forces to respond. The change is painful for everyone. People will pull back and consider their alternatives. But they will eventually have to make a decision on who to purchase from.
The end result, if it can be achieved is good from the viewpoint of increased control over supply and quality but also in the many employment opportunities as businesses come back to life. But this also reaches further into the economy as the suppliers of the equipment needed, the parts manufacturers and raw material producers also have an upswing in outlook. And that spurs investment.
Housing starts: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUSTNSA
They're also finding that laminated wind turbine blades last longer, are cheaper, and are recyclable when compared to composite blades. I think that there may be a lot more markets for engineered wood. Do they require higher quality of wood or can they be manufactured from lower quality?
Same data I see, only I got mine direct from the US Census Bureau. They show a line or bar chart of the data with a mouse click. And we all know a lot of units never even sold in down swings, or people lost them long before they were paid for. About 4-7 years is usually a down turn. You can see the evidence of down swings in that chart alone in plain site.
Here's the materials page of the Canada Earth Tower.
https://structurecraft.com/materials
Quote from: Ron Wenrich on March 07, 2025, 06:44:50 PMI think that there may be a lot more markets for engineered wood. Do they require higher quality of wood or can they be manufactured from lower quality?
One advantage of engineered wood is that it's generally stronger than a single piece. Reason is that a defect only affects one lamination, and the other 10 or 20 layers, although they may also have defects, they aren't lined up with each other. Think like plywood, every layer need not be perfect, but as a whole the sheet is sound.
There is also optimizer / finger jointing systems that effectively manufacture defect free wood from less than perfect stock. And those can then be laminated into larger items, AND be free of any defects.
Wind turbine blades are more like an aircraft wing, and those have been made using wood, basically since airplanes were invented. Take the WW2 Mosquito as an example. It's 90% balsa and birch ply, and was one of the best aircraft of the era. Ironically, balsa and birch are woods that NZ would import small amounts of, to rebuild Mosquito aircraft...
So yes, there is plenty of potential for advanced uses for wood products.
I guess the thing is it will take investment to develop. And for private companies to invest in something, they need a stable commercial environment, because it's likely to be years before the new venture starts turning a profit (or even gets built). Currently with the tariffs swinging between yes and no every week, how the heck do you create a business plan with that going on? I know the plan is to create more demand for locally produced products, and boost Govt tax income. But would you sign on the dotted line with the current flip / flop of policy?
Removing some of the red tape and compliance costs however seems a move in the right direction. If the cost of production in the US is decreased, that naturally makes the imports less attractive, and overall reduces the prices, improves demand. Just need to be careful not to swing the needle too far, then you get pillage and burn operations / waterway problems etc, that give loggers a bad name.
after typing out my thoughts earlier and they becoming lost in the computer. i basically came to the conclusion. I would like to see the export of raw logs to anywhere outside the us made illegal. And i say this as someone whos entire production either goes in conexs to china or on trucks to canada.
the production of timber and wood products should be regarded as a strategic asset for the country.
the ownership of the facilities processing the material should also be owned solely by citizens of this country.
this should also be the case for food
processing.
yes, im willing to cut my nose off to spite my face.
A strategic reserve for what exactly? Whats the strategy? It's not like timber is an asset for plane production like it used to be, I'm not exactly sure what you're saving for. We have it and plenty of it to satisfy both domestic and export demand, there's no reason not to take advantage of that. It's also a renewable resource so it not like if we cut it , it won't come back
I think the strategy right now is stop all the previous whatevers to find out who is getting taken advantage of. As of this moment, we are currently the only Country being taxed unfairly.
Fair and reciprocal treatment is a reasonable review. This is the negotiating.
https://u.osu.edu/forest/2025/03/07/where-will-the-trees-come-from-how-tariffs-and-new-policies-mean-big-changes-on-federal-forests/
Brent Sohngen is a prof of resource economics at Ohio State. His take, he ignores hardwoods and is just focused on softwoods. He's also ignored substitution and SYP vs SPF. SYP started trading on the Chicago Board for the first time ever, that was historic and should do much to develop a better commodity market for SYP products.
Quote from: 240b on March 08, 2025, 08:12:59 AMafter typing out my thoughts earlier and they becoming lost in the computer. i basically came to the conclusion. I would like to see the export of raw logs to anywhere outside the us made illegal. And i say this as someone whos entire production either goes in conexs to china or on trucks to canada.
the production of timber and wood products should be regarded as a strategic asset for the country.
the ownership of the facilities processing the material should also be owned solely by citizens of this country.
this should also be the case for food
processing.
yes, im willing to cut my nose off to spite my face.
So no trade across country borders at all? Nobody in China should buy USA agricultural products? No American cars sold in Mexico. Walmart should not be doing business in Mexico? Mars should not sell chocolate in Germany? KFC should be banned from China?
We are talking about something that is not strategic at all, the modern version of the buggy whip. Sales are falling year over year and pricing is terrible, what's strategic?
Quote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 11:18:52 AMI think the strategy right now is stop all the previous whatevers to find out who is getting taken advantage of. As of this moment, we are currently the only Country being taxed unfairly.
Fair and reciprocal treatment is a reasonable review. This is the negotiating.
Who is taxing us unfairly? Who is being taken advantage of when there is trade? If someone were being taken advantage of they would not be buying or selling. The USA is considered a fairly unfriendly country to deal with by many. Scandinavian and Asian countries are viewed as more business friendly. Now we are insulting our neighbors and threatening them. Put yourself in the shoes of a neighbor that just had someone start insulting him in front of his family, threatening to take property, to commit violence. Would you negotiate with such a neighbor or do everything possible to have nothing to do with them?
Threatening people you trade with is generally not a positive for long term relations. Threatening and insulting them....hmm
first, I never said strategic reserve, and the word strategic was probably the wrong word to use
probably closer to national asset,
raw materials which could be used to fuel a local economy.
why export raw materials when a country could sell manufactured goods?
you gotta remember im a simpleton no mba here.
ive not read the article from ohio stTe
yet
but im curious as to what percent of the total volume on hardwood logs on the market actually come from federal
lands?
softwood can be grown anywhere in north america. high quality hardwood
not so much.
a a realistic rotation length for northern New England is 130 to 150 years.
Probably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Looks a lot like what Roosevelt would say during the depression years, try something, if that doesn't work try something else. I follow a lot of economists who call it desperation in the decline. Interesting times.
Urgent Update on Chinese Log Import Suspension and NHLA Statement |
|
Dear NHLA Members,
China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) has suspended the importation of U.S. logs effective March 4, 2025, as per Announcement No. 29. While GACC has not officially confirmed any exemptions, industry sources indicate that log shipments in transit with a Phytosanitary Certificate (PC) issued before March 4 may still be accepted—but this remains unverified.
Immediate Action Required:
APHIS Beijing is compiling a list of impacted shipments to submit to GACC for potential entry clearance. If you have log shipments currently in transit to China, you must submit the following details to APHIS.Beijing.China@usda.gov as soon as possible:
✔ Phytosanitary Certificate Number
✔ Date of Departure
✔ Estimated Arrival Date
✔ Port of Destination in China
✔ Vessel Name (Optional) |
|
This is a email I got from the NHLA a few days ago. They have also sent out alerts about the impact of tariffs.
Other sources I've read also say lumber but I don't think that is fact....yet. Soybeans were also impacted.
Quote from: 240b on March 08, 2025, 08:12:59 AMI would like to see the export of raw logs to anywhere outside the us made illegal. And i say this as someone whos entire production either goes in conexs to china or on trucks to canada.
I'm with you.
Its foolish to sell raw materials outside of the country. Always better to add value then sell. If someone wants our logs sell them only finished 2 x4's or whatever, but not raw logs.
better yet sell them finished furniture, window assemblies, door assemblies and so on.
At one time we had legislation to prevent exporting of logs from the province from public lands. The wood had to be processed here. But in one of the down swings and mill closures, and lobbying by the big whigs, they removed the law. The small fry have no say in politics. That was back in the 90's. Most that I see being moved out of province is pulpwood anyway. We don't have a lot of veneer wood and a handful of hardwood mills can handle what decent sawlogs there is. The cutting cycles have become too frequent to grow a decent sized log. And there is no will to manage hardwood that way. And of course all the furniture manufacturing is long gone. I will say though, that 95% of my wooden furniture in made in Canada, one piece of wooden furniture comes from Pennsylvania which is made of ash. Most anything now for wooden furniture is coming from Quebec. I'm fussy about a rocking chair, many are made too high, or straight backs with no curvature.
Quote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 01:36:06 PMProbably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Why is it fair for me to not be able to sell my log to the highest bidder? I lose money and my landowners lose money.
Quote from: 240b on March 08, 2025, 12:24:16 PMive not read the article from ohio stTe
yet
but im curious as to what percent of the total volume on hardwood logs on the market actually come from federal
lands?
softwood can be grown anywhere in north america. high quality hardwood
not so much.
a a realistic rotation length for northern New England is 130 to 150 years.
Very little hardwoods come from federal lands, mostly in great lakes region. Private non industrial lands account for over 75% of the timber used/sold by the hardwood industry.
Quote from: Klunker on March 08, 2025, 08:21:51 PMQuote from: 240b on March 08, 2025, 08:12:59 AMI would like to see the export of raw logs to anywhere outside the us made illegal. And i say this as someone whos entire production either goes in conexs to china or on trucks to canada.
I'm with you.
Its foolish to sell raw materials outside of the country. Always better to add value then sell. If someone wants our logs sell them only finished 2 x4's or whatever, but not raw logs.
better yet sell them finished furniture, window assemblies, door assemblies and so on.
So foolish for Canada to sell us oil? Right, gotcha.
The idea of a free market is to market participants decide on who is mot efficient.
Another thing to consider is the labor force now days. I have some good help right now. If they chose to leave, I have zero doubt that I will be looking for a long time to replace them. I'm paying a lot just to have someone stack lumber. Granted they need to be able to make a decent wage to be able to survive now days. My local area has given tax breaks for companies to open factories here. Almost all of them have closed, because they can't find the skilled labor to do the work. The new gas stations are paying 20 bucks a hour and more. I don't know what the answers are but just some other things to consider.
Quote from: nativewolf on March 09, 2025, 07:52:32 AMQuote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 01:36:06 PMProbably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Why is it fair for me to not be able to sell my log to the highest bidder? I lose money and my landowners lose
Quote from: nativewolf on March 09, 2025, 07:52:32 AMQuote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 01:36:06 PMProbably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Why is it fair for me to not be able to sell my log to the highest bidder? I lose money and my landowners lose money.
The Markets will develop where they're needed. Probably a new opportunity for you to capitalize on. We will have no choice but to seek other ways now.
There was only one place to sell my spf sawlogs in Maine. They have mills in both countries. Mine went to Canada. There was only one option for chip wood also.
It wasn't good for my Logger or me either. He decided to get out of Logging on my job after 6 loads went out.
To Customsawyer's point, they are always advertising for job positions at the mills.
I don't know how it'll turn out but it was definitely time to try something different.
I don't follow this stuff too closely, I'd end up having a breakdown! As far as tariffs go, to me, it only seems fair that the US should mirror any tariff that is imposed upon us. I think that's pretty cut and dry and probably too simplistic, but in my mind it's an easy solution.
What you want to achieve with import/exports is a fair and balanced approach. Besides tariffs you also have to look at country subsidies for specific industries which at times can exceed Billions for dollars! With every country looking at their own self-interest in jobs, etc... the solution will be problematic or impossible to fix perfectly.
I having been cutting 280 acres (est. > 100,000 bd ft) of White Ash due to the threat of EAB nearby. They were being exported to China. Having 20,000 board ft ready to go and then a complete STOP is upsetting. Its not the immediate loss of dollars/market but the sudden change that hurts everyone in the supply chain. In my view it is an gunslinger approach to a very complex issue that is most upsetting to me. Changes can occur and should be done for sure but you can't do it overnight.
I'm sorry that happened to you. Can you pivot to firewood markets?
You really want/expect folks to sell all the >$1/bf ash that is sitting on landings that everybody would buy last week but nobody will this week -into the firewood market- ? Almost like this whole thing was not poorly thought out but just not thought out at all.
I don't expect anything but corrections.
How did we get here?
In my opinion it is less about idealogical "we shouldnt be selling to other countrys all our manufacturing should be on shore" etc. I am a firm believer that america needs more local industry. Many factors unfortunatly have led to us not producing practically anything we used to. Factorys, sawmills, independent business closing left and right as massive corporations consolidate manufacturing overseas and distribution on shore here.
The problem with this current approach is that it doesnt deal with the realitys of the industry currently. Many loggers and sawmills and shops/tradespeople that support us are hanging on by a thread. Global export on hardwood veneer in particular is a huge part of the bread and butter of loggers here in new england. Simply stopping that leaves.....what?
We dont have domestic markets for all these logs, starting up/reopening domestic mills doesnt happen overnight and is too risky with the current tarrifs and policys seemingly being tossed back and forth on a whim.
Most of my logs go to canada, some go to local mills when it makes sense. HW veneer goes to a local buyer that loads containers for china. Usually one good HW tree will end up in 3 different destinations. If I were to ship all my logs to my local sawmills my profit would be almost nothing there prices cant compete. On top of that if every logger shipped all the wood locally the mills would be flooded and shut everyone off not enough capacity. Here in new england canadas mills are not very far from our domestic mills they come down with something on a flatdeck going to boston or new york swing by and backhaul some logs. Trucking works out for them and me getting me a higher price for my wood.
Just taking these markets away and hoping it will sort itself out just adds to the pile of problems the industry already has. Constant attack by treehuggers who dont understand working forests, fuel and parts through the roof, an overall aging workforce with very little help to be found, truking resources dwindling as that industry has its own problems and now losing export grade HW market and possibly canadian markets as well.
Ive got oak cut that was going for 1.5 to 1.9 a foot 2 weeks ago that is going to bring me .70 now. Thats not a small hit.
Quote from: mudfarmer on March 09, 2025, 10:56:45 AMYou really want/expect folks to sell all the >$1/bf ash that is sitting on landings that everybody would buy last week but nobody will this week -into the firewood market- ? Almost like this whole thing was not poorly thought out but just not thought out at all.
honestly, what else can you do with it?
Well I COULD (past tense) sell them in the "free market" to Canadian mills, until some rich guys that have never done a day's work said "Let them eat cake" and started a global trade war for funsies.
Now I will bring my 10mbf home to saw and sit on the lumber, we aren't going to get more 20" clear ash logs for a long time. 100 mbf guy up there though? I hope he has an option because nobody cares what happens to him after empathy and worker solidarity completely collapsed
not sure how to link articles but
sevendaysvt.com has a good piece on vt forest industry
International trade has made countries prosper going back centuries, it hasn't always been fair trade but still trade between countries has generally been a good thing. Venetians, Genoans, Hanseatic League, etc. the more a country turned inward, see pre opium war China, the more it opened itself up to internal corruption and other issues like quality (USSR).
There is nothing objectively wrong with exporting logs, especially if there is no domestic market for them. This is the case where I live. Rough large wood has a limited market, that market is almost non existent if there is no china export market. We just got cut off from our closest mill for under 30" because they now have no competition for that log, so we are now shipping 2.5 hrs one way to a place that takes at 32" butt max. Our landowner is now going to take a huge hit in the wallet and we may end up firewooding the over 32" logs if my dad can't work a deal with the Koreans. The best he can do right now is a 200/mbf discount compared to what we were getting on the China market.
I'm not sure why mills getting preference over loggers and landowners is so important but it sure seems to be a thing.
I have a question about HW veneer. Is that going to a veneer mill or is it going to a concentration yard and then exported? It seems that if its being exported from Canada, it could also be exported from the US by Canadians. For example, Honda is going to mfg in Indiana instead of Mexico to avoid tariffs.
I haven't been around veneer sales or the like in quite some time. But, when I was, it wasn't uncommon to have a veneer buyer from Europe come in and buy logs. We also had local buyers that had concentration yards. We did sell some core logs to a veneer plant in NY. But, I can't remember of any veneer plants left in PA.
typically for central vt
HW veener is sorted out at either the mill ( if they sort it and pay you veener price less a percent, some will just buy it as a grade log and than sell it and one mill just saws it all because, " it makes great lumber" ) or concentration yard, yard it typically best best for average woodlot containing mix of grades and not a whole load of one thing.
Some is going to Michigan ( maple)
some to canada (small Rotary logs, maple ) i think the yellow birch iis going to Columbia in Newport, Vermont. the oak mostly seems to be put in conex to china. ( i dont cut oak so not too familiar)
last time i sold veneer on land was '98 to a guy from Belgium.
ive not heard of any thing going to EU lately.
Columbia in Preque Isle, Maine would come here to NB and truck the veneer from our marketing board yard where they either scaled it already on the woodlot or scaled in the yard. Most was scaled at the woodlot. Loads of wood here have to have a transport certificate to be moved, for chain of custody requirements. We never had large volumes because most has been clearcut and the cutting cycle is too short these days. Hard maple and birch. Not big money like southern Ontario.
The big China Tariff news is going unreported.
Quote from: Mooseherder on March 09, 2025, 10:49:48 AMI'm sorry that happened to you. Can you pivot to firewood markets?
We have a ban on shipping this stuff as firewood. Just giving the critters a free ride to expand into new locations.
Are they debarked before moving? What's the difference between firewood bark and log bark? ;)
Quote from: Mooseherder on March 09, 2025, 09:47:31 AMQuote from: nativewolf on March 09, 2025, 07:52:32 AMQuote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 01:36:06 PMProbably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Why is it fair for me to not be able to sell my log to the highest bidder? I lose money and my landowners lose
Quote from: nativewolf on March 09, 2025, 07:52:32 AMQuote from: Mooseherder on March 08, 2025, 01:36:06 PMProbably the best time for corrections while the market is depressed before moving forward. Let them kick and scream because it was their system that got us here. Nobody is against fair trade. This is the start of a Golden Age. Great for everyone. The Markets will correct and growth cures all the wounds.
Why is it fair for me to not be able to sell my log to the highest bidder? I lose money and my landowners lose money.
The Markets will develop where they're needed. Probably a new opportunity for you to capitalize on. We will have no choice but to seek other ways now.
There was only one place to sell my spf sawlogs in Maine. They have mills in both countries. Mine went to Canada. There was only one option for chip wood also.
It wasn't good for my Logger or me either. He decided to get out of Logging on my job after 6 loads went out.
To Customsawyer's point, they are always advertising for job positions at the mills.
I don't know how it'll turn out but it was definitely time to try something different.
There are lots of options. Including bankruptcy and just sitting it all out and waiting.
The trucking company that has hauled for us moves logs from Ohio to Va, we use the backhauls to send logs to ohio. Good for us and them. China has banned logs. So, I have no backhaul for logs to Ohio.
Not sure what the trucking company will do now, they don't know either. It was about half their business. Either they layoff or shut down.
We put another 500 acres under contract yesterday. However, if I don't find reliable backhauls we'll likely not cut it for a few years.
Quote from: ahlkey on March 09, 2025, 10:43:15 AMWhat you want to achieve with import/exports is a fair and balanced approach. Besides tariffs you also have to look at country subsidies for specific industries which at times can exceed Billions for dollars! With every country looking at their own self-interest in jobs, etc... the solution will be problematic or impossible to fix perfectly.
I having been cutting 280 acres (est. > 100,000 bd ft) of White Ash due to the threat of EAB nearby. They were being exported to China. Having 20,000 board ft ready to go and then a complete STOP is upsetting. Its not the immediate loss of dollars/market but the sudden change that hurts everyone in the supply chain. In my view it is an gunslinger approach to a very complex issue that is most upsetting to me. Changes can occur and should be done for sure but you can't do it overnight.
Sorry to hear about the ash. Yes, it is a huge economic shock and for most hardwood logging it's going to eliminate profits. We've heard china hardwood lumber ban coming soon. That's going to only leave the market to Vietnam (chinese owners that have moved operations out of China). I expect that to end up in a tariff situation too. We'll see.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 10, 2025, 11:24:09 AMAre they debarked before moving? What's the difference between firewood bark and log bark? ;)
They get sealed in containers as logs, then fumigated, then sent back to asia where the beetle originated.
Quote from: Ron Wenrich on March 10, 2025, 08:18:31 AMI have a question about HW veneer. Is that going to a veneer mill or is it going to a concentration yard and then exported? It seems that if its being exported from Canada, it could also be exported from the US by Canadians. For example, Honda is going to mfg in Indiana instead of Mexico to avoid tariffs.
I haven't been around veneer sales or the like in quite some time. But, when I was, it wasn't uncommon to have a veneer buyer from Europe come in and buy logs. We also had local buyers that had concentration yards. We did sell some core logs to a veneer plant in NY. But, I can't remember of any veneer plants left in PA.
Canada should be a bit advantaged and keep selling veneer to Europe and Asia. The way things are developing, Canada imposing export tariffs on electricity etc, I would not plan on shipping veneer logs to Canada.
Bailles head buyer (the largest hardwood company in the world) told me that another firm had $20mln in logs in containers when China announced the ban. They are in the way of the other containers and they can't be unloaded in China. He heard they dumped them in the ocean.
Quote from: nativewolf on March 11, 2025, 07:45:43 AMQuote from: SwampDonkey on March 10, 2025, 11:24:09 AMAre they debarked before moving? What's the difference between firewood bark and log bark? ;)
They get sealed in containers as logs, then fumigated, then sent back to asia where the beetle originated.
That does not happen out in the woods though, between there and the concentration yard bugs can fly from invested logs anywhere on the way. The beetle is no inherit threat to it's native land.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 11, 2025, 08:52:45 AMQuote from: nativewolf on March 11, 2025, 07:45:43 AMQuote from: SwampDonkey on March 10, 2025, 11:24:09 AMAre they debarked before moving? What's the difference between firewood bark and log bark? ;)
They get sealed in containers as logs, then fumigated, then sent back to asia where the beetle originated.
That does not happen out in the woods though, between there and the concentration yard bugs can fly from invested logs anywhere on the way. The beetle is no inherit threat to it's native land.
some ash logs were being hauled to nh and debarked than put in containers and fumigated at the port in boston. 12 miles from here the bark is falling off standing trees an they look horrible. the county forester was here in october and told me he thought theres a 90%+ chance all my trees are infested the just dont look it yet. i decided to saw enough ash flooring for the house, its gonna be like chestnut in a few years here.
Can someone explain how logging is supposed to prevent forest fires to me? It seems to be toted as a great reason for increased logging and forest management, but I must be missing something.
When mature forests burn from lightning or human factors, it seems to be the product of a changing environment with increased temperatures and decreased rainfall.
Southern california isn't burning forests, it's dry scrub brush.
When I see my local forests logged, it's either clear cut and turned to garbage for 20 years, or thinned and full of dead slash and black berries for years until the canopy recovers. Both things burn really well.
I don't see how logging fixes any of that. Unless it's simply less trees = less thing to burn, clear cut = no trees to burn, yay! Make it rain more and I bet the problem goes away ffcheesy
QuoteWhen I see my local forests logged, it's either clear cut and turned to garbage for 20 years, or thinned and full of dead slash and black berries for years until the canopy recovers. Both things burn really well.
But your example of your logged forests, likely do not support a raging problem forest fire. The cut-over areas allow more manageable fire fighting and some easier fire control.
The brush burning in CA is a different condition than logged forests. A lot involved that is not easy to explain in a few words.
Forest management builds roads to allow folks to get in there and check on things and also fight fires. They check on old growth areas and monitor the tree health. When it gets to a certain point, they will arrange for it to be logged and then replanted. Otherwise, trees die, fall over, get hung up in other trees, etc. They also burn fast if they catch on fire. They will do controlled burns to kill infestations. They will clear out areas where storms destroyed trees.
Also they establish the look out stations, estimate available lumber and stumpage and provide research data.
I think most of the western forest are fire based ecosystems which have suffered from fire suppression for the last hundred and something years allowing fuels to be built up to unnatural levels. So when you do have a fire, it's ridiculously intense as opposed to having regular low intensity fires which maintain the forest
Most west coast forests burned every 250-350 yrs. Even the "virgin" forests were about 90% DF which is an open area full sunlight seed. In a true old growth forest here it would be all succession shade trees like cedar, hemlock, and spruce.
Logging mimics the fire and allows for DF planting and brushy browse animals love so much. Logging also creates roads for firefighters and cuts down diseased trees.
Back in 1994, the year of the great wind storm in the Christmas Mountains of central NB, thousands of acres were laid down by the wind in those hills. It was a massive undertaking and 12 months to salvage all the timber by several companies. If that were not done there would have been a massive fire, 100 % sure. Lightening strikes in dead dry bushy tree tops and all the bigger wood it would ignite. A lot of the wood was old growth balsam fir, which for fir is 60-90 years, it grew thick all it's life, so stems were small and not very wind resilient. Many of the fir trees on the ground broken off. Most spruce went down by uprooting, it is a much longer lived tree. But when 80% is fir and it goes down, the spruce won't stand either. And by the way, the place was full of white birch through that fir, and if it does not go down in wind, it will go down by stem scald by 3 years because it was too open when the fir went over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOwm_U8gcDo&t=718s
I've never seen a Lake States clearcut area "burn really well". Of course, there were clearcut areas that had huge fires in the late 1800's and early 1900's, I suspect that was because with the manual hand logging utilization was poor and there was that much more tops and wood left above waist height, which would and did burn.
On every job I've been on, which includes many large clear cuts and thinnings, the slash is ran down where it is in contact or within a foot of the ground, which keeps it moist. It breaks down faster and tends not to burn. On the clearcuts, the new growth is typically very leafy and it tends toward a moister environment overall. In most cases I think a fire would burn up to one of those and either be slowed down, or burn out.
I can't say for certain what a fire would do, because we don't have many, or at least many that get large. I attribute that to the forest management and forest road networks that allow good access to any fires that do occur.
The only really big fires we've had around me were USFS prescribed burns that went, shall we say, sideways😬 And those were started out in swamp meadows, not forested areas. They burned into managed timber a d that's where they were able to catch upto it and put it out.
Quote from: memopad on March 11, 2025, 01:35:08 PMCan someone explain how logging is supposed to prevent forest fires to me?
A "Mature" forest has a lot of dense trees, and various debris laying around, that allows a fire to REALLY take off. Once a fire is jumping between the crowns of trees with a stiff breeze behind it, it's basically impossible to contain.
Now if you have managed blocks of land with fire breaks and blocks of new forest with only 6 ft high trees, then you can defend those areas. Fire crews can go into those areas and actually fight the fire. Vs a scenario where 100 ft tall trees are just bursting into flame at the speed of the wind (30+ mph), and spot fires are starting 5 miles downwind. Sending crews into those scenarios is both pointless and often fatal.
Pre modern times many forests naturally burned. Some trees even Need a good fire to open their seed cones. The locals at the time either ran away, or died, but the forest grew back for another cycle in another ~200 years. Rinse and repeat.
We don't like that system any more as we have houses and stuff in those areas. So keeping the forest managed to reduce the fire potential is a valid plan.
Quote from: quilbilly on March 09, 2025, 08:57:47 PMThere is nothing objectively wrong with exporting logs, especially if there is no domestic market for them. This is the case where I live.
That's the thing. NZ produces far more logs than we can ever use, or even have the mills to process. Solution? Sell them Asia, who need logs, and have plenty of TVs and computers to sell us.
There is a push to process more locally, and so export more higher value product. But you don't want to cripple the local forestry / logging industry by blocking them from a potential markets. And banging on large tariffs overnight doesn't encourage long term industry investment.
In the great Miramachi fire, 3.95 million acres were destroyed, roughly 22% of the province.
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/1OJlF7nKKdJJqvvZOYehrg
And as mentioned, the real trouble and danger happens with a forest fire is when it gets into the crowns. Very hard to control, as it creates its own wind. If the fire can be contained to the ground debris, it is much easier to control. Somewhat like a controlled burn.
I hate to speak in too general of terms about forest management and fire risk, because there are so many different types of forest and they all have different fire risks. An old, dense stand of lodgepole pine in the mountains is quite different from a closed canopy, mature eastern hardwood forest.
That said, most conifers benefit from thinning in many ways, and decreased fire risk is one of those.
Yep, and as stated in the video the blowdown was patchy, with standing timber around it, you can see narrow strips of blow down in the aerial video. Also some still had 20-30% still standing in the patches. Lots of dead dry limbs in those old fir as it holds limbs longer than pine. A lot of them dead limbs have hanging moss/lichen (old man's beard) which easy to start a fire with if there is no birch bark. Dry fine fuels is part of assessing fire risk.
Learned a bit more about international hardwood trade today. So, turns out China has been using the bulk of the logs and lumber bought from the USA to produce furniture & other products for Europe. Now due to European rules on the origin of lumber, and our highly fractured supply chain, the asian buyers can't supply that certification. Thus, they may be having issues. There is some FSC wood that could meet that but it's a small %. Ok, what does that mean. China might have been getting ready to reduce purchases in any case. Their economy is not growing fast enough to consume the lumber they buy and Americans are substituting not purchasing hardwoods at all.
This knowledge helps me make plans but didn't make me feel good about the industry. It would mean that we may see an even faster reduction of the hardwood industry.
Also one of the shuttered Idaho/Montana mills is sawing DF again. Good news for that area.
Got a email from the NHLA a bit ago which said the EU was planning on putting tariffs on basically anything wood in response to the US metals tariffs. Supposed to go in effect in April.
Closer to home got walnut logs in today to custom saw for a small part time logger. He said our local buyer for walnut logs has stopped buying completely. We were speculating if the cause was the tariff war or something else.
Not sure how much Europe actually buys. I believe they already had a softwood ban in place. Yes they buy high grade hardwoods, but not being back east it seems like no china no Canada would be a bigger issue
Any wood in Canada that might not be certified is off small private woodlots. All public land woodlands are certified across the board. Europe doesn't buy much wood, Japan buys more wood then Europe combined and they are third. Europe only buys 10% of US hardwood exports. China imports the most but has been declining in recent years, especially because of COVID lockdowns. And 80% of Chinese furniture production stays in China, because of there housing boom which has slowed now. There are American furniture companies using Chinese labor to mill parts, then assemble back in the USA. I have some of it, 2 rocking chairs. Well made to, I will add.
Quote from: Larry on March 12, 2025, 10:01:22 PMGot a email from the NHLA a bit ago which said the EU was planning on putting tariffs on basically anything wood in response to the US metals tariffs. Supposed to go in effect in April.
Closer to home got walnut logs in today to custom saw for a small part time logger. He said our local buyer for walnut logs has stopped buying completely. We were speculating if the cause was the tariff war or something else.
That is due to China. They did not impose a "tariff" per se. They said USA containers of logs and lumber had bugs. So they blocked them all. Very clever. Fumigated containers dont have bugs but this lets China use a single action to completely block trade in logs, lumber to come shortly. It forces Chinese buyers to look elsewhere for sources of logs because no one can just eat a 25% tariff on walnut. Instead they'll look to Brazilian and African hardwoods and likely to Australia and Canada. This is why I think Canadian log exports and lumber exports could pickup quite a bit.
So, China was the buyer for Walnut. Much of the walnut harvested was getting exported in log/lumber form to China. Walnut sales are gone until this ends. You won't see price point destruction, it is just a complete halt in walnut.
If you have great walnut then there are still buyers of course but prices will be down.
Our veneer buyers have told us that the Canadian tariffs are going to hit the few remaining USA producers of veneer because Canada was a good market. Europe was going ok but now we'll see.
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 13, 2025, 01:46:00 AMAny wood in Canada that might not be certified is off small private woodlots. All public land woodlands are certified across the board. Europe doesn't buy much wood, Japan buys more wood then Europe combined and they are third. Europe only buys 10% of US hardwood exports. China imports the most but has been declining in recent years, especially because of COVID lockdowns. And 80% of Chinese furniture production stays in China, because of there housing boom which has slowed now. There are American furniture companies using Chinese labor to mill parts, then assemble back in the USA. I have some of it, 2 rocking chairs. Well made to, I will add.
Yep, it's why I think Canada can export to Europe. Europe imports lots of wood- they imported the most expensive stuff and if you sold a $8/bdft log chances are it or the veneer from it was headed to europe, but more importantly imported lots of Chinese furniture.
Your 80% number is not correct based on my discussion with the trade people yesterday, the majority of the 80% went to Europe. Some stayed in China but until China figures out how to fix its economic issues they can't finish the apartments and thus, they don't need the furniture.
I too enjoy a good rocking chair, post pictures.
That info is direct from the National Hardwood Lumber Association. Europe hasn't been a significant importer from over here for some time. That's from many sources.
Europe is about to put the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) into effect.
https://www.americanhardwood.org/en/news-feed/eudr-latest-developments
https://fsc.org/en/eudr-explained
Quote from: SwampDonkey on March 13, 2025, 01:37:01 PMThat info is direct from the National Hardwood Lumber Association. Europe hasn't been a significant importer from over here for some time. That's from many sources.
Europe is about to put the Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) into effect.
https://www.americanhardwood.org/en/news-feed/eudr-latest-developments
https://fsc.org/en/eudr-explained
I agree they are not big in quantity but they set the top end price, EU and Japan. We even have specific Japanese grade logs, same in DF. Neither import so much, just the best.
Yes, EUDR is in and that will impact many. Not our little company, it will help us.
Pretty much have to pay top end for the good stuff if you want it. Scarcity brings better prices. Japan buys way more wood than any one European country, by far. Is it not a G7 country to. ;)